Live coverage of the first estimate of UK gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2014Growth figures released Why GDP is a blunt instrument 2.46pm BST Wall Street is open and despite disappointing results from Amazon, markets are moving higher, helped by good gains by Microsoft after its figures.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 49 points or 0.29% in early trading, in contrast to European markets which are still in negative territory, on worries about Ebola, poor Chinese property figures and uncertainty ahead of the ECB bank stress tests, the results of which are due to be released on Sunday. 2.39pm BST No further comment needed:Satire truly dead when Greece forced to borrow money to pay EU extra 89m on account of economic over performance: pic.twitter.com/mafPNKRzr7 2.18pm BST Back to the GDP figures, and my colleague Phillip Inman says that despite the economy growing chancellor George Osborne has cause for concern:George Osborne is clearly worried. Going into a pre-election war-gaming huddle with his advisers, the economic numbers that once sang a happy tune and are so crucial to victory, now sound a little discordant.It seems churlish to strain for the bum notes in the latest GDP figures. All parts of the economy are growing, with the exception of agriculture. And growing more strongly than they are in any of the major European economies. 2.07pm BST Heres our latest take on the demand for more money from Britain and others for the EU budget:Europes finance ministers will convene an emergency meeting following the disclosure of a demand for some countries, including Britain, to contribute billions more to the EU budget, the prime ministers spokesman said.David Cameron believes the demand for £1.7bn from Britain is unacceptable and has secured a gathering of Treasury ministers to discuss the recalculation of contributions which have hit the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands with additional bills, while France and Germany are to receive a rebate.I'm angry at the sudden presentation of a 2bn bill to the UK by the EU. It's an appalling way to behave and I won't be paying it on Dec 1st 1.07pm BST Over in the US, and Ford has reported a 34% drop in third quarter profits to $835m, but this was higher than Wall Street analysts had been expecting.The drop was partly due to the costs of introducing its F-150 aluminium bodied pickup truck, with its Dearborn plant in Michigan shut for five weeks to prepare for the launch. There was also a $160m charge relating to restructuring in Europe. 12.45pm BST More on the EU budget demand on Britain:EU leaders agree PM's request for talks over missing 1bn. Commission wants cash in time for Christmas- imagine what you cd buy with that! 12.26pm BST Back in the corporate world and Shire - recently jilted by US predator AbbVie after a proposed clampdown on tax inversion - has just revealed a 32% jump in third quarter revenues to $1.597bn and a 60% rise in operating income to £717m.After what it called a very strong performance Shire has raised its guidance and now expects a rise in earnings per share in the high 30% range. Previously it had been expecting low to mid 30% growth. 12.16pm BST Meanwhile there is interest in the GDP figures from an unexpected source:A spider just photobombed Ed Balls pic.twitter.com/d7lCux1WyM 12.14pm BST The UK economy grew at a slower pace in the third quarter but was still up a solid 0.7%, more than most other advanced economies.Despite a more balanced recovery, services still dominate providing 85% of #GDP growth since the crisis. [2/2] pic.twitter.com/3mvwkVYKrfUK headline growth looks not bad. But GDP per capita shows UK has had the worst post-crisis recovery in the G10: pic.twitter.com/CTYMMVqKpA 12.13pm BST This is curious... George Osborne has apparently denied that living standards have fallen, in an interview with ITN.But when I point out living standards are falling as wages have fallen behind inflation he says "I don't accept that."UK @GeorgeOsborne denies living standards falling as wages lag inflation. It's 5 years and counting. HT @ITVRichard pic.twitter.com/Dh8qDvtz8e 11.58am BST I think they were playing Monopoly last night at #EUCO. I found this on the floor by David's seat. pic.twitter.com/NWcaEThsgd 11.55am BST Over in Brussels, the EU summit continues to be dominated by the demand for an extra £1.7bn from Britain due to its recent economic success.David Cameron has demanded an emergency meeting to discuss it:At EU Summit Cameron interrupts meeting to demand emergency finance minister's meeting to discuss UK facing a £1.7 bln budget surcharge.#UK2bn dutch government says it is surprised and has lots of questions for the commission.@george_osborne tells me he first heard abt EU 2.1bn bill on Tues. It was a decision made by junior officials in the bowels of the ECGeorge Osborne tells me EU demand for cash is "just not an acceptable way for an organisation to behave" 11.37am BST Heres our round-up of reaction to todays GDP figures: 11.24am BST On the economy, chancellor tells me: "These GDP numbers, 0.7%, 0.9% what do they mean? Economic security, more jobs a brighter future." 11.23am BST George Osbornes trip to Derby is part of a push to encourage more women into the workplace.The government is aiming to get almost 500,000 more women in the workplace by the beginning of 2016, which would push Britains female employment rate up to match Germanys. 11.11am BST Just in; photos of George Osborne in Derby, on the second day of his trip to meet women working across the UK economy. 11.03am BST The chancellor couldnt resist his favourite hashtag, on a trip to the East Midlands.Am @ToyotaUK in Derby to meet staff & hear what more #LongTermEconomicplan can do to support themJust been chatting to this bloke. More on @SkyNews presently pic.twitter.com/2cnBfVSyLQ 10.58am BST Todays GDP figures are important, but theyre only one measure of the economy, alongside wage growth, unemployment, and the deficit.My colleague Angela Monaghan has rounded up the charts that tell the story: 10.46am BST John Hawksworth, PwCs chief economist, makes an important point: Total UK GDP is now around 3.4% higher than its pre-recession peak in Q1 2008, but the population has also grown by around 4.5% over this period. Average GDP per person is therefore still around 1% lower in real terms than before the recession, which helps to explain why many people may feel that there is some way to go before the downturn is truly over.But this will still be one of the best growth performances in the G7 in 2015, behind only the US and possibly Canada, following the UKs chart-topping results in 2014. 10.43am BST Ed Balls, Labours Shadow Chancellor, has responded to todays GDP data with a broad-brush attack on the Tories (and no specific reference to the actual report).For all George Osbornes claims that the economy is fixed most people are still not feeling the recovery. Working people are over £1600 a year worse off since 2010 and these figures now show a concerning slowdown in economic growth too.We need a strong and balanced recovery that works for all working people, not just a few at the top. But under the Tories we have stagnating wages and too many people in low-paid jobs which, as the OBR said last week, are leading to rising borrowing. This plan isnt working for working people. 10.39am BST The pound is broadly unchanged, up just 0.04% at $1.6035. 10.39am BST Theres very little reaction to todays data in the financial markets, confirming that investors and traders had expected a growth figure of around 0.7%. 10.38am BST As mentioned earlier, todays GDP report is only based on two months data.And Berenberg bank suggests the ONS may have been too optimistic in its assumptions about September:The number crunchers have assumed construction rises 4.0% month-on-month, bouncing back from Augusts surprise 3.9% fall, industrial production rises 0.6% (mom) the strongest since February while services rise 0.5% mom, the strongest since March. If those assumed growth rates turn out to reflect the truth, then output will head into Q4 on strong foundations. The much discussed UK slowdown will not be evident in September in that case. Alternatively, there may be downward revisions to come.... 10.33am BST Although Britains growth has slowed, todays data will probably create sense of relief in Westminster and amongst UK policy makers, says Jon Pryor of City firm Investec.The 0.7% growth keeps the country on a 3% annual growth rate, which keeps the UK at the top of the G7 nations. This should calm fears for now that the slowdown in Europe and deflation fears around the globe are not such an immediate threat to the UK economy. 10.29am BST Despite a more balanced recovery, services still dominate providing 85% of #GDP growth since the crisis. [2/2] pic.twitter.com/3mvwkVYKrf 10.27am BST Felicity Burch, Senior Economist at EEF, the manufacturers organisation, says UK manufacturers have suffered from weaker overseas demand. Todays estimates confirm the economy has slowed, with little surprise that export-intensive sectors have been most affected. After strong growth in the first six months of the year, the pace of growth in manufacturing has also slackened as a result of weaker demand from key markets including Europe and China.Nonetheless, the domestic economy remains relatively upbeat, and manufacturing sectors with strong exposure to the UK should do particularly well. Manufacturing is still on track to grow at its fastest pace since 2010. 10.18am BST Looking into the data, Britains manufacturing sector grew by just 0.4% during the last quarter.That is the weakest quarterly growth since the first quarter of 2013. 10.10am BST Osborne uses the "Not immune" phrase with relation to the eurozone, whilst welcoming "strong" GDP number 10.09am BST Britain will struggle to grow faster than 0.7% per quarter unless conditions improve at home and abroad, says Jeremy Cook, chief economist at currency exchange company World First.Headwinds from the current slowing of output in Europe and China are obvious dangers to the UKs growth picture.With real wages staying determinedly negative at the moment, there are concerns about how much farther domestic demand levels can be pushed. 9.59am BST The TUC hammers home the point that wages arent keeping up with inflation:General Secretary Frances OGrady says:Its a tale of two economies a few people at the top are thriving, but most workers wages are still in decline.This kind of growth is fragile because businesses cant keep prospering if their customers have less money to spend. 9.58am BST Although Britain has posted quite respectable growth in the last year, this hasnt yet fed into the public finances - with borrowing around 10% higher this year than last.And Rob Carnell of ING reminds us that Britain already faces a larger bill from Brussels, to reflect its stronger economic performance. UK 3Q14 GDP has come in at a very respectable 0.7%QoQ, taking the year on year growth rate to 3.0% - in line with market expectations. However, the UK Chancellor may view this as a mixed blessing, after being given a bigger bill for the EU budget thanks to the UKs relative outperformance of its European Union peers. This will be especially irksome since despite the stronger growth figures, there has not yet been an accompanying improvement in the UK public finances to match. 9.52am BST You can see the GDP report, here on the ONS website.Services still powering UK economic growth, 3rd quarter GDP data shows pic.twitter.com/wL4QFt2T99 9.51am BST George Osborne, chancellor of the Exchequer, strikes a cautious tone as he welcomes todays GDP figures:Todays strong growth figures show that the UK continues to lead the pack in an increasingly uncertain global economy. With all the main sectors of the economy growing its clear that our recovery is broadly based. But the UK is not immune to weakness in the euro area and instability in global markets, so we face a critical moment for our economy. If we want to avoid a return to the chaos and instability of the past then we need to carry on working through our economic plan that is delivering stability and security. 9.47am BST Another chart, underlining how Britains recovery since 2011 has been led by the services sector: 9.44am BST Danny Alexander, Lib Dem Chief Secretary to the Treasury, says the recovery is now well established, giving Britain good momentum to cope with global uncertainty.And with an eye to next Mays election, he says:Our plan is working and we need to stick to it. The families and businesses of Britain whose hard work is powering this recovery will judge harshly any Party that threatens to squander this progress. Britain cant forget the deficit or believe unfunded promises. Being sensible with the nations money is the bedrock of the Liberal Democrat approach. We will keep a steady hand on the economic tiller because that is the only way to produce the stronger economy and fairer society that Britain needs. 9.41am BST This chart, tweeted by the ONS, shows how Britains dominant services sector provided the bunk of the growth.Its disappointing that industry couldnt grow as fast; despite hopes of rebalancing the economy.UK #GDP grew 0.7% in Q3, driven by services (+0.7%) http://t.co/JMF7XBwVjN pic.twitter.com/2CLkdHHWAR 9.39am BST Britains economy is now 3.4% higher than its previous pre-crisis peak (achieved in autumn 2008, before the financial crisis plunged the world economy into crisis) 9.38am BST Some historical context: 9.36am BST On an annual basis, UK GDP is 3.0% higher than a year ago. That outpaces our major European rivals (France, for example, hasnt grown for the last six months) 9.35am BST All four sectors of the UK grew in the last quarter. 9.32am BST So, the UK recovery has slowed, largely as economists had expected. Not a major shock. 9.30am BST Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2014, according to figures just released by the Office for National Statistics.That follows growth of 0.9% in the second quarter of the year, so the UKs growth has slowed. 9.25am BST Five minutes to go until we learn how fast the UK grew in the last quarter (if youre just joining us, our introduction on todays growth figures is at 8am).The Office for National Statistics have briefed newswire reporters at a lock-in in London, so well get the numbers at 9.30am exactly. 9.19am BST RBC Capital Markets reckon the UK economy grew by 0.7% last quarter, but recent weaker data suggest that the risks are tilted slightly to the downside. 9.15am BST This chart shows how the UK service sector has recovered faster than the rest of the economy, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. 9.10am BST Andrew Sentance, a former Bank of England policymaker, predicts that the UK grew by 0.7% or 0.8% in the last quarter (not exactly sticking his neck out!)Thats:still quite respectable in the relatively slow growth world weve seen since the financial crisis.UK growth may slow a bit in Q3 but to remain relatively strong into next year. My interview with @BloombergTV today: http://t.co/4A7ObIEl62 8.59am BST James Knightley, economist at ING, predicts that UK GDP rose by 0.8% in the third quarter, down from 0.9% in Q2. Thats partly due to weaker Eurozone demand, but the story remains very positive, he adds:Todays 3Q GDP report is expected to show the seventh consecutive quarter of expansion with the economy 10.2% larger than it was when activity bottomed out in 2009. 8.54am BST And heres a Vine from Number 11, via Sophy Ridge: 8.52am BST Is the chancellor having a party?16 boxes of white wine carried into No11... pic.twitter.com/3FM63t3HOv 8.48am BST A large Carlsberg van has been spotted outside George Osbornes residence in Downing Street. Thats via Sophy Ridge of Sky News:Carlsberg delivery at No 11... Will the Chancellor have something to celebrate after today's GDP figures? pic.twitter.com/7SPYl8iUYe 8.45am BST Robert Oxley fears that Brussels could dip deeper into Britains pockets, if todays growth figures are decentWill expected improved GDP figures at 0930 mean even more money for the EU? 8.40am BST European stock markets have all dropped this morning, by around 0.4%.That follows a late selloff on Wall Street, after a doctor in New York tested positive for Ebola.The news flow on the NY Ebola case will naturally catch plenty of attention, while the European Council meeting to discuss the EU Budget is set to be a stormy affair, above all in the wake of the demand for an extra £1.7 Bln from the UK (because the economys doing so well) 8.27am BST Todays growth figures are overshadowed by the news that Britain has been asked to contribute another £1.7bn to the European Union budget........because its economy has performed better than its EU neighbours.The demand is certain to be used against David Cameron by the growing camp who want the UK to quit the EU.British and European commission officials confirmed that the Treasury had been told last week that budget contribution calculations based on gross national income (GNI) adjustments carried out by Eurostat, the EU statistics agency, had exposed a huge discrepancy between what Britain had been asked to contribute and what it should be paying, because of the UKs recovery It is hard to believe that the European Union can legally charge the UK an extra £1.7billion because we have a stronger recovering economy.The EU must want Britain to vote UKIP http://t.co/rtPORdkjl7 pic.twitter.com/ud4CVRaZLxEU demand for £1.3bn is punishment for making the right decisions. Must be rejected.@forbritain vigorously opposedIn 1990s EU sent £700 mn to UK because we were poor and others were rich. Did `German, Dutch media, MEPs turn it into a mega moanWhen UK boom goes bust - as it always does - will French radio be full of French MEPs saying UK is a 'basket case'? Insults not grown-up 8.15am BST A quick disclaimer on todays growth figures. GDP isnt a perfect tool, by any measure.Todays numbers are only based on data from July and August - ONS statisticians will have extrapolated those figures into September.It values expenditure on war and nursing care on the same basis. It records the despoliation of the environment only by reference to the amount spent despoiling it, and then includes the amount spent to clean it up. It does not tell us how happy we are or how fulfilling are our lives. 8.06am BST Good morning. UK third quarter growth figures out today @ONSThe provisional estimate of Q3 GDP is likely to show that the economic recovery has maintained a healthy degree of momentum, but has become increasingly dependent on the services sector. The upshot is that while the recovery remains robust, it has become a bit more unbalanced. Continue reading...
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