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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Accessory retailer Fossil is getting demolished after slashing guidance

Fossil is getting rocked in after-hours trading after reporting miserable earnings Tuesday. The company reported earnings of $0.12 per share against analyst expectations of $0.14 per share. Comparable sales dropped by 3% against analyst expectations of only a 0.4% drop. Fossil's sales missed, with only $659.8 million in sales during the first quarter against estimates of $667 million. The big drop, however, was in guidance. The accessory-maker, best known for its watches, cut its earnings forecast for the full year 2016 to $1.80 to $2.80 per share versus its previous projection of $2.80 ti $3.60 per share. Additionally the firm projects sales to fall between 1.5% to 5% for the full year. After the news, the stock plummeted in after-hours trading. As of 4:16 p.m. ET, shares were down a little more than 23% at $30.70. [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 4.16.56 PM] SEE ALSO: SOLARCITY NOSEDIVED MORE THAN 20% AFTER EARNINGS MISS Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


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The Greek Deal That No One Wants

Old Greek bailouts never die, it seems. They just fade into new, equally bad arrangements that amplify the mistakes of the recent past. Protests erupted again in Athens this weekend as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the coalition led by his far-left ...


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Ben Needham: Yorkshire cops in Kos, GREECE, reveal anonymous call

She hopes people might speak out now so much time has passed, adding: "In GREECE they have a statute of limitation and after a certain amount of ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.dailystar.co.uk

Euro Finance Ministers Bend on GREECE

Euro-zone finance ministers appear willing to bend the rules on their bailout loans to help GREECE avoid bankruptcy this summer and remain a ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT global.handelsblatt.com

“You thought you came for human rights”: meet the refugees stranded in GREECE after the EU ...

This is how Kamal was greeted by a border guard on his arrival in GREECE, his first steps on European soil. Kamal is a lawyer from Aleppo, a father ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.newstatesman.com

Tensions high at GREECE'S migrant, refugee camps

According to the latest official data, 54,347 migrants are still stranded in GREECE, despite the sharp reduction of migrant flows into GREECE since the ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.ekathimerini.com

Homer’s Odyssey at the National Archaeological Museum in Athens

The National Archaeological Museum in Athens will have a special place in this year’s International Museum Day (May 18) as it has been chosen by the Greek Department of the International Council of Museums (ICOM) as the honoree museum, due to the completion of 150 years since its opening. The anniversary events of the Archaeological


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

EBRD set for first GREEK NPL deal

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects its first deal to take over bad GREEK loans in the coming weeks, one of its top officials ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.ekathimerini.com

STOCKS RALLY: Here's what you need to know (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM, SCTY)

[LAX Takeoff photo]Mike Kelley Stocks rallied on Wall Street on Tuesday after opening the week with a nothing sort of day on Monday.  First, the scoreboard: * Dow: 17,921, +215, (+1.2%) * S&P 500: 2,084, +26, (+1.3%) * Nasdaq: 4,811, +61, (+1.3%) * WTI crude oil: $44.70, +2.9% LABOR MARKET It's a quiet week for economic data, but the big news crossing the tape this morning was the latest report on job openings, which showed the number of jobs open in the US was near a record high in March. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — or JOLTS — report, showed in March there were 5.757 million jobs open in March. "The number of job openings is not a reliable short-term leading indicator of payrolls, but it does suggest that employers remain very keen to hire, consistent with our view that the below-consensus April payroll number will prove a fluke," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson in a note following the report. Elsewhere in the JOLTS data, we noted that there is a persistent and growing gap in the number of jobs available and the number of hires being made each month. Basically: something isn't clicking in the labor market. Also in labor market news, grocery store chain Kroger announced that it would add 14,000 jobs in its grocery division. "So what?" one might say. Well, Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro is already ahead of you, writing Tuesday, "Before people say these are crap low paying positions, I would just point out the following chart of average hourly earnings across retail grocery stores ..." [dutta]Mike Kelley SERVICES Speaking of jobs, Elena Holodny was out Tuesday with a big overview of the shift that is changing the global economy: the move away from agriculture and into services.  Here's Elena: Services employment has surged to 46% of the global total in 2016, up from 34% in 1991. Over the past 25 years, about 75% of the 1 billion new jobs created in the world have been in services, according to figures cited by a Macquarie team led by David Doyle in a recent note to clients. The same thing is happening with output data, as the share of GDP attributed to services has increased over the past four decades in both developed markets and emerging markets. "Services have risen dramatically in importance and are increasingly dominant in shaping the outlook for global growth," the Macquarie team wrote. The upshots here are many. For one thing, the bulk of profits, at least from S&P 500 companies, come from manufacturing, and so services companies present a new profitability paradigm for business. Additionally, an increase in the services sector also means productivity growth will likely be lower in these services-dominated economies, though economic cycles will potentially be smoother as fewer outside forces like commodity prices will impact operations. HEDGE FUNDS Institutional Investor's annual list of the top earnings hedge fund managers was released Tuesday. And as tends to be the case, the numbers were big. Here are the five hedge fund managers, for example, that made over $1 billion last year. In all, the top five managers brought home $7.35 billion last year. A nice haul! Jim Simons, who made $1.7 billion last year, used to work at the NSA. Here's how he got from there to here.  Ray Dalio made a lot of money last year: here's an interview with him.  And Joseph Edelman, who most people haven't heard of, made $300 million last year.  Also in hedge fund news, Jim Chanos has Elon Musk's number right now and Jeremy Grantham admits he was very wrong to miss the commodities bubble.  ADDITIONALLY Amazon hit a record high on Tuesday.  SolarCity got crushed on Tuesday. Josh Barro on Paul Ryan.  A major coffee shortage is looming.   Brazil is a mess just months before the Olympics are set to begin.  NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


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What Athletes Eat: Wrestler Adeline Gray's Greek yogurt chicken salad

When it comes to wrestling, Adeline Gray is the woman to beat this summer at the Olympics in Rio. The three-time world champion (2012, 2014 and 2015) has an impressive 37-match winning streak dating back to July 2014. If she can continue it in Brazil, she ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT espn.go.com

Politics clouds Greek debt talks

IMF and EU disagree on outlook for Athens’ growth and how much relief is needed


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.ft.com

EU's Breidthardt says Eurogroup made important progress on GREECE

EU's Breidthardt says Eurogroup made important progress on GREECE. Tue 10 May 2016 10:31:30 GMT. Author: Mike Paterson | Category: News.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT news.forexlive.com

Quiet crisis: why battle to prop up Italy's banks is vital to EU stability

Forget Brexit or Grexit, €360bn of bad loans within a fragmented Italian banking sector could be the biggest threat of all Even a “small crisis” could trigger a chain of events that would threaten the stability of the European Union, the credit ratings agency Moody’s has said. Brexit – if the UK votes to leave the 28-nation union – or even Grexit – the departure of Greece from the eurozone – are the obvious vulnerabilities. But some commentators believe an altogether quieter crisis should also be at the top of the worry list: Italy’s battle to prop up its debt-laden banks. Continue reading...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com

Europe close: Greek stocks pace gains

… a possible debt-relief deal for Greece. Europe's benchmark DJ … regarding the need to offer Greece debt relief. "This is … the IMF involved in the Greek bailout," UBS strategist Lefteris …


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European Markets Gain on Positive Earnings and Greek Outlook

… Tuesday as positive developments in Greece’s debt negotiations and solid … Tuesday as positive developments in Greece’s debt negotiations and solid … offset weak economic data. In Greece, the Athens Composite Index gained …


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Can Greece Tax its Way to Prosperity?

In my presentations about how to deal with budgetary deterioration and fiscal crisis, I often share with audiences a list of nations that have achieved very positive results with spending restraint. The middle column shows how these countries limited the ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.peoplespunditdaily.com

GREEK Man Who Lost Job Now Works Full Time Feeding Those In Need

Konstantinos Polychronopoulos, is the founder of O Allos Anthropos, or The Other Human, a GREEK aid group that feeds the homeless, unemployed ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.huffingtonpost.com

Global stock markets rise on oil prices, Greece

LONDON: Global stock markets rose on Tuesday (May 10), buoyed by a mix of firming oil prices, reassuring Chinese data and likely fresh bailout funds looming for Greece after eurozone talks. Eurozone finance ministers on Monday gave themselves until May 24 ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.channelnewsasia.com

Greece moves closer to a loan deal with its eurozone lenders

Greek media headlines on Tuesday were doom-laden about the future for the country’s pensioners and public servants even as Athens seemed to have moved closer to a deal on new loans. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told his cabinet an agreement with the ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.euronews.com

Deputy FM Amanatidis meets with a delegation from the American Hellenic Institute (Foreign ...

Deputy Foreign Minister Ioannis Amanatidis met at the Foreign Ministry today with a delegation from the American Hellenic Institute (AHI).During the meeting, which took place in a warm atmosphere, Mr. Amanatidis was briefed on the AHI’s current activities, as well as on the delegation’s meetings during this year’s visit to Cyprus and Greece.Having expressed the Greek government’s appreciation for the AHI’s timely contribution to pointing up Greece’s geopolitical importance, Mr. Amanatidis underscored the usefulness of maintaining an open channel of communication and fruitful cooperation with the AHI and the Greek diaspora community in general.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.mfa.gr

Rebirth of Greek Cuisine in Boston

BOSTON, MA – Greek restaurants are popping up all over Boston, not least of which DORETTA TAVERNA & RAW BAR, the Boston Globe reported. Other new restaurants in the past year, the Globe wrote, include COMMITTEE, PELEKASIS, SALONIKI, and coming soon is KAVA NEO-TAVERNA. This phenomenon is not limited to Boston, the Globe reported, said […]


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.thenationalherald.com

Good News for Greek Markets

ATHENS, GREECE — Greek government borrowing rates dropped to their lowest level in nearly six months as investors welcomed the start of talks between Athens and bailout creditors on how to lighten the country’s massive debt load. The yield on Greece’s 10-year bonds dipped to 7.69 percent, the lowest so far this year and around […]


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.thenationalherald.com

Eurozone: Positive developments in GREECE – Deutsche Bank

Eurozone: Positive developments in GREECE – Deutsche Bank ... a result allow GREECE to receive the funding its needs for bond payments due in July.


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European stock markets rise on GREECE

European stock markets rose on Tuesday, as eurozone finance ministers looked set to sign off more bailout cash for GREECE before the end of the ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Germany Appears to Cave on GREEK Debt

By David FrancisDavid Francis is a staff writer for Foreign Policy, where he oversees FP's breaking news blog, The Cable. An award-winning journalist ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT foreignpolicy.com

Gov’t Sets to Work on Pending Issues: NPLs, Privatization, Contingency Measures

The government is already drafting the bill to close the remainder of open issues prior to Greece’s program review before the next Eurogroup on May 24, said government sources following the cabinet meeting headed by leftist SYRIZA Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Tuesday. The same sources state that the way is open for legislating measures


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

Will Tsipras Wear a Tie at the Eurogroup Meeting on May 24?

Much ado was made of Greek leftist SYRIZA Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ choice of attire after his blitzkrieg into power after winning the elections on January 25, 2015. He wore his collar proudly unbuttoned in the presence of the world’s most powerful leaders, even rolling up to black-tie functions such as that of the UN


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

There's something wrong with the US labor market

Something isn't clicking in the US labor market.  On Tuesday, the latest "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" (JOLTS) showed there were 5.757 million jobs available in the US in March — a near record. Additionally, the number of unemployed people in the US per job open is down to prerecession levels at about 1.5 workers per job. In 2010, for example, this number was closer to five unemployed workers per job opening. While the abundance of jobs is often interpreted as a sign of strength in the market, there's a persistent and growing gap between the number of jobs available and the number of hires being made that points to a nagging skills gap in the labor market that is unresolved. [hires vs openings]Business Insider/BLS Additionally, the amount of time it takes to hire a worker is still at a postrecession high of about 26 days. There are, of course, a number of interpretations to be taken from this data. You could see the gap between hires and openings — and the time it takes to fill jobs — as signs that employers are being more selective, which would be a drag on labor-market vitality. Alternatively, this data could indicate a lack of available workers, thus pressuring both employers' ability to hire and how long it takes to make those hires, suggesting the balance of power lies with employees rather than employers. But these trends also seem to point toward a gap in what employers want and what employees can offer. Simply put, it seems clear there is a skills gap in the US economy that is nagging the labor market. [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 11.18.16 AM]Business Insider/BLS The most recent data on wage growth indicates that in April average hourly earnings increased 2.5% compared to the year before. So wage gains are decent, but not putting the kind of money in the pockets of consumers that is really pressuring consumer prices and placing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.  Tuesday's JOLTS report also showed the quits rate is at 2.1%, near postcrisis highs but not really accelerating. So there's a pocket of workers in the economy who are confident enough to leave their current jobs for something else, but we're not seeing defections en masse.  It takes a lot to quit a job, and while this rate is basically at 10-year highs, there's been little change in how many workers are quitting their jobs over about the past year. The labor — while still seeing overall job gains — has simply not become more dynamic over the past year. And the more we see a gap between openings and hires while wage growth remains tepid, the clearer it becomes that the skills gap in the labor market is not being satisfyingly resolved. NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


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Grains are exploding after the latest USDA report

Grain futures soared on Tuesday after the US Department of Agriculture published its global demand and supply estimates for 2016/2017. The most impressive jump was in Soybean futures, which rose by the most allowed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, according to Bloomberg.  The USDA's projected drop in reserves was more than analysts had expected. It sees inventories falling to a three-year low next year, according to Bloomberg.  It projected soybean crush for 2016/17 at 1.915 million bushels, up 35 million from 2015/2016.  US wheat supplies were forecast to increase to a record 6% in the next two years, while wheat production was forecast to drop 3% year-on-year to 1.998 million bushels.  [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 12.04.31 PM]Investing.com Corn futures rose 2% to as high as $3.77 per bushel. [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 12.05.35 PM]Investing.com Wheat futures also spiked after the report. [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 12.11.32 PM]Investing.com NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


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Jeremy Grantham publishes epic mea culpa admitting he got the commodities bubble all wrong (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM, USO, OIL)

[jeremy grantham]REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts Jeremy Grantham was so, so wrong. In GMO's quarterly letter, the famed investor admitted that he simply whiffed on the latest commodity bubble popping. "Every major bull event is called a paradigm shift but they almost never exist," wrote Grantham. "Almost never. But not never, ever." Basically, Grantham admits that he expected the new, high price of commodities represented a paradigm shift for the industry based on scarcity and demand from China. Instead, the commodity bubble was just another mispriced asset wearing the clothes of a purported new paradigm. And so it popped. Here is how Grantham outlines his biggest errors: * OIL: In 2005, Grantham said that there was a paradigm shift in oil, calling for "peak oil." The idea was that the resource was drying up and OPEC controlled the supply. A strong cartel, diminishing supply, and increasing demand from emerging markets would all contribute to skyrocketing oil prices for decades. In early 2016, oil dipped to under $30 a barrel for the first time in over a decade. * CHINA: Similarly, Grantham projected that the prices of other commodities would rise dramatically due to diminished supply and the monumental rise of demand in China. Despite warnings that a China commodity demand slowdown could hurt his prediction some, Grantham said he did not expect the total plateau that has occurred. * GRAINS: Grantham also said that long-term shifts in weather patterns would make grain hard to come by and drive up the price of foods. While droughts did cause prices to increase after his prediction in 2011, they have since dropped again. Grantham did conclude, however, that there are still reason to believe that all three of his predictions could still come true in the long-term. For now, however, Grantham owned up to his mistakes. "There are very, very few paradigm shifts compared to natural investment bubbles that fully break," wrote Grantham. "I, more than most investors, should have known. Even some of the rare, extraordinary outliers can prove to be mean-reverting bubbles eventually." _READ THE FULL LETTER FROM GRANTHAM HERE»_ NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.businessinsider.com

Tuesday's papers: GREECE again, store opening carnage, and sunshine brightens workplaces

As the Eurogroup fails to reach an agreement on GREECE, and everyone following the news in Europe suffers deja vu, Ilta-Sanomat is still covering last ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT yle.fi

Eurozone edges towards Greek debt relief

The country needs realistic fiscal targets and longer-term assistance


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT next.ft.com

Stuffed grape leaf lovers: GREEK Fest 2016 is for you, May 27 to 29

The GREEK Festival that brings a blue and white splash to the banks of Bayou St. John each year is renowned for its roast lamb, French fries with feta, ...


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European Markets Close Up; Greek Shares Up on Possible Debt Deal

… ; Nokia Falls on Sales Miss Greece's ASE Index rose … deflation also slowed. In April, Greece's harmonized consumer price …


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Greece/Eurogroup

… on Greek economy needed Commenting on the latest developments regarding the Greek … measures to be passed in Greece is wrong-headed. Instead, the creditors … also be retasked to target Greece, along with special technical assistance …


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Israeli Greek Orthodox Priest Accused of Sexual Harassment: I Won't Be Dissuaded

… Israeli Greek Orthodox priest Gabriel Naddaf has …


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Heated debate over state of Greece's adjustment programme

… also the conservative ECR, warned Greece's creditors and the … ;s Eurogroup meeting, saying that Greece is expected to return to … and suicide rates in Greece and encouraged the Greeks "to leave …


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Non-Syrian Refugees Are Being Told They Can’t Apply For Asylum In Greece And Turkey

All people who arrive safely on the beaches of eastern Greece via smugglers' boats from Turkey have the right to seek asylum in the country and are required a fair adjudication of their claims under European Union law. But at least 300 non-Syrian asylum ...


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European stocks rise as outlook for oil, Greece brightens

European stocks moved up Tuesday as gains for Credit Suisse AG and Volkswagen AG shares and an important breakthrough on the Greek debt crisis allowed investors to set aside disappointing economic data. Meanwhile, Volkswagen AG VOW3, +3.81% shares bulked ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.marketwatch.com

Deputy FM Mardas carries out visit to Jordan (9-10 May 2016)

Within the framework of preparations for the upcoming meeting of the Greek-Jordanian Joint Interministerial Committee (JIC), Deputy Foreign Minister Dimitris Mardas completed a working visit to Jordan today, accompanied by a business mission organized by the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV), in collaboration with the Foreign Ministry. On the margins of the visit, it was agreed, among other things, that the Jordanian delegation that is to be visiting Athens for the September JIC will be accompanied by a business mission.During his visit to Amman, Mr. Mardas met with a number of Jordanian government officials, including Maha Ali, the Minister for...


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Daily Agenda: GREECE Returns to the Spotlight

After a long absence from the spotlight of global market sentiment, GREECE has returned to investment risk narratives with a 3 percent increase for the ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.institutionalinvestor.com

Where Do We Stand on GREEK Debt?

Why was Monday's Eurogroup important? Eurozone finance-ministry officials, for the first time, discussed in some detail what they might be willing to ...


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On Greece: 'Not even watching your favorite characters die time and time again in Game of Thrones leaves you with such sour taste'

Twitter legend "The Greek Analyst" is back for his take on the latest installment of the Greek debt crisis, drama included.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.dw.com

Tsipras Tells Cabinet that Eurogroup Meeting Was a Success, Despite Shortfalls

Greece’s Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras addressed his cabinet during a meeting on Tuesday, in the aftermath of the extraordinary Eurogroup meeting on Monday.  “Today is an important day. And it is an important day because after six years of constant cuts, bad news and hard austerity, we finally have good news,” said


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

Abducted Man Found Dead North of Athens

A 60-year-old man who was abducted on April 16 in Aspropyrgos, west of Athens, was found murdered north of the capital at Mornos river in Viotia. The victim, an ethnic Greek from Kazakhstan, was found dead at the irrigation channel of Mornos. The man was found with his hands and legs tied and the perpetrators


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

Greek Jews Outraged by GNTO’s Promotion of Easter Judas Burning

The Greek Jewish community is incensed by websites and brochures of the Greek National Tourism Organization (GNTO) that showcase the traditional Easter practice known as “Judas burning.” The time-honored “scapegoating” ritual burns an effigy of Judas Iscariot to rid the community of evil, however the Central Board of Jewish Communities in Greece has taken affront


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com

Job openings in America are near a record high

[Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 10.27.43 AM copy]BLS Job openings in the US are still near a record high. There were 5.757 million openings in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (or JOLTS.)  Economists had estimated that there were 5.45 million job openings according to Bloomberg. The March print is second only to the high of 5.788 million recorded last July.  "The number of job openings is not a reliable short-term leading indicator of payrolls, but it does suggest that employers remain very keen to hire, consistent with our view that the below-consensus April payroll number will prove a fluke," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson. Openings were fewer in retail trade, education and wholesale trade. Hires fell slightly to 5.3 million, and there were 5 million total separations, which includes quits, layoffs and discharges.  The JOLTS report, one of Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's favorites on the labor market, also included the quits rate, which held steady at 2.1%, just under the decade high of 2.2%.  The quits rate is an indication of how confident workers are in finding new jobs if they resign.  Friday's jobs report for April showed that nonfarm payrolls grew by a below-consensus 160,000. It indicated that even though some companies slowed hiring on economic growth concerns, the pool of unemployed workers kept shrinking as the economy neared full employment. Catherine Rampell at the Washington Post flagged this chart, which shows that the number of unemployed per job opening has fallen to a post-recession low:[Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 10.25.55 AM]BLS NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.businessinsider.com

There’s a new driver of the global economy, and it changes how we should look at the world

[Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 9.17.32 AM]Macquarie Research Economists and analysts like to fixate on the industrial sector. And that makes sense. Data coming from industrial tends to be a bit more volatile, so historically it's been pretty helpful in explaining the short-term swings in the economy. However, the less-analyzed services sector increasingly plays a bigger role in the overall output and employment figures in the global (and US) economy. And, consequently, it may now be a better gauge of what's going on in the world. Services employment has surged to 46% of the global total in 2016, up from 34% in 1991. And over the past 25 years, approximately 75% of the one billion new jobs created in the world have been in services, according to figures cited by a Macquarie team led by David Doyle in a recent note to clients. The same thing is happening with output data, as the share of GDP attributed to services has increased over the past four decades in both developed markets and emerging markets. "Services have risen dramatically in importance and are increasingly dominant in shaping the outlook for global growth," the Macquarie team wrote. The note further elaborated:  This was evident over the past two years as manufacturing PMIs showed weakness across major economies, leading many to conclude that a global recession was on the horizon. While this may have been the case in previous decades, in the current period the high services share in developed economies has made such an outcome far less likely. Services activity has held firm for the most part speaking to the underlying resilience of the global economy. [Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 9.10.19 AM]Macquarie Research For what it's worth, Deutsche Bank's Torsten Sløk made a somewhat similar argument back in October 2015 via two pie charts, shown below. One chart shows the share of the US employment in services versus manufacturing, and the second shows the share of earnings in the S&P that 500 comes from services versus manufacturing.  Notably, although manufacturing makes up the bulk of the S&P 500, it's responsible for just a sliver of the employed workforce. Therefore, Sløk argued at the time, we were seeing a _profit_ recession, but not an actual economic recession. [Untitled]Macquarie Research The Macquarie team also argued that our structural transition to a more services-based economy comes with key changes. For example, they argue we'll see less economic volatility (given that the industrial sector is more volatile, if it makes up a smaller share, then overall volatility drops), and that trade increasingly will revolve around services. However, most notably, they also argue that this will lead to continued lower productivity growth in developed markets. They note that the level of productivity in the services sector is much lower than in the goods/manufacturing sector, and that the growth rate of productivity in the services sector has historically been way less than the growth rate in manufacturing. Still, that may not necessarily be a bad thing — after all, lower productivity combined with more stability theoretically just means that we might be looking at a more "slow and steady" kind of world. Or as the Macquarie team put it, "the rising importance of services has played a key role in our team's view that the current expansion should continue to be characterized by structurally lower growth rates, but also by incredible persistency and resiliency." NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy


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Former top Clinton adviser: Donald Trump hasn't had a 'single good day' since becoming the presumptive nominee

[Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump election 2016 illustration]Mike Nudelman/Business Insider Hillary Clinton is starting off the general election with a healthy lead over Donald Trump, according to a new poll released by the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies and the National Research Group. The survey found that Clinton held a 6-point lead over Trump nationwide and a 4-point lead in swing states. But Mark Penn, one of the pollsters involved in the survey who also served as Clinton's chief strategist during the 2008 presidential campaign, said the results showed she will have to overcome brutal attacks from the mogul with a message that brings together an anti-Trump coalition. "She's got a significant lead, but the country is divided," Penn, a longtime aide to both Hillary and former President Bill Clinton, told Business Insider. He added that Clinton should be reaching across the a "divided" Republican Party while batting aside Trump's onslaught of attacks. Clinton has spent the first week since Trump assumed the position of the Republican Party's presumptive nominee deflecting attacks from Trump that have largely been aimed at her husband's past infidelities. Trump has repeatedly referred to Hillary Clinton as a "total enabler." Clinton has also made a point of taking advantage of the Republican infighting over Trump as the party's presidential candidate. Her campaign has pushed out emails to reporters almost every time a prominent Republican has distanced himself or herself from Trump. The campaign also cut a video quoting Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio — Trump's former presidential rivals — saying negative things about the business mogul. [Hillary Clinton]Mike Nudelman/Business Insider But the poll found that Trump and Clinton are viewed unfavorably by a similar number of voters. The bombastic real-estate magnate's unfavorability rating stood at 60%, while the former secretary of state lagged just behind at 52%. "I think on the one hand the poll suggests you have to worry about those attacks [on Clinton] catching traction," Penn said. "But on the other hand ... if she can begin to generate more enthusiasm to a broader group than the primary, it shows that she goes into this with a significant edge."  A part of that coalition-building will have to include supporters of Bernie Sanders, a Vermont senator who remains locked in an increasingly divisive primary battle with Clinton. The poll, which was conducted at the end of March, found that just 64% of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton in the general election. "Yeah, I mean, I would think that's a little low," Penn said. "It shows again the work she's got to do to bring everyone together. I think she'd want to see that more in the 85% range." Whether Clinton will be able to hit that 85% mark will depend on a number of factors, Penn said — including how Sanders handles the remainder of the race and if he "comes around and endorses her and urges his supporters." "I think, given when Sanders concedes the race and pulls out, the Democratic Party will have find it much easier to consolidate," Penn said.  [Donald Trump]Mike Nudelman/Business Insider A factor playing into Clinton's hand, the poll found, is that she's much more trusted than Trump on the top issue: The economy and jobs. Clinton held a 47% to 32% edge for voters who care most about the economy. And that was also before Trump made a series of mishaps while discussing the national debt and economic policy in recent interviews. "She can champion that issue in the face of interviews by Trump that, by themselves would cause huge headaches and gyrations in the financial marketplace community," Penn said. "I think this is off to a good start that way, and I do think that that's absolutely critical for her." Between his comments on the economy and the infighting within his own party, Trump has only helped Clinton since he became the presumptive nominee last week, Penn said.  "Usually, becoming the presumptive nominee would give people a lift," he said. "In this case, I'm not so sure he's had a single good day since he's become the presumptive nominee. I think he might have been better off while he was in the [primary] fight." NOW WATCH: FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: Why Hillary Clinton is a 'dangerous person'


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Key dates to watch on Greece as bailout rift cracks open

The debt relief measures will include short-term, medium-term and long-term options that would stretch beyond 2018, Dijsselbloem said. But a review of how effective Athens has been in making required austerity measures was supposed to have been completed ...


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