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Sunday, July 14, 2013
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Germany's Anti-Euro Party Is A Disaster
BERLIN (Reuters) - Just three months since its launch in a blaze of publicity, Germany's anti-euro party is failing to strike a chord with voters and is unlikely to fulfill predictions it will pose a threat to Chancellor Angela Merkel in September's election.
Despite recent developments in Greece and Portugal reviving fears of another flare-up in the euro crisis, polls show support for the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) languishing around 2 percent, short of the 5 percent needed to enter parliament.
Broad public approval for Merkel's handling of the euro zone crisis and a pro-European political consensus combined with Germany's relative immunity to the problems means there is little appetite for an anti-euro party, pollsters and analysts say.
Led by a motley group of mainly academics and journalists, the AfD also lacks a charismatic figure in the style of Italy's Beppe Grillo, whose stunning electoral success this year gave hope to populist movements elsewhere. It has even suffered from a perception that some members have links to the far right.
"Things aren't bad enough for Germans to vote for an anti-euro party. Germany is doing alright, people aren't worried about their job or pension," said Carsten Koschmieder, a politics researcher at Berlin's Free University.
"There is simply no question mark over the currency itself in the election," he said. Like many other analysts, he sees the AfD scoring around 2 percent.
In stark contrast to other euro zone states where hostility to Europe is growing due to painful austerity measures and soaring youth unemployment, the crisis has had a limited effect on Europe's biggest economy.
German growth has slowed, but the jobless rate of 6.8 percent is close to 20-year lows and the biggest union has agreed an inflation-busting wage hike.
Most Germans are committed to the EU, and the main political parties agree keeping the euro is in the national interest.
"The euro was never popular in Germany and still isn't, but people are used to it and voters see no reason to vote for the AfD," said Manfred Guellner, head of the Forsa polling group.
In fact the euro crisis has not featured much in a campaign which has in the last couple of weeks been dominated by reports of intrusive surveillance methods employed by U.S. intelligence.
The problem for the pro-European Social Democrats (SPD) is that they cannot attack Merkel on European policy, including bailouts, because they agree with her.
Merkel's conservatives lead the SPD by up to 19 percentage points in polls. But it is unclear if she will be able to form another centre-right coalition with the Free Democrats (FDP) as their support has sunk to a third of its level in the 2009 vote.
RATTLED
Launched in April with the headline-grabbing policy of an "orderly dismantling of the euro", the AfD made waves at first.
The party briefly rattled some of Merkel's conservatives and some in the more euro-skeptical FDP and they denounced it as a group of scaremongers and populists. Yet the AfD has signed up 15,000 members and has 39,000 Facebook fans.
That may be tiny in an electorate of 62 million, but analysts say the party could still take votes from the conservatives and FDP, possibly even robbing the FDP of crucial points it needs to enter parliament and Merkel needs for another centre-right government.
A high profile catch came this month when it lured Internet activist Michaela Merz, a former FDP consultant, to its board.
"We're not a party that has been making policies for a long time, with party interests," she told Reuters. "I think it's important that experienced citizens, businessmen, professors also take part in politics," she said.
AfD leader Bernd Lucke, a conservative economics professor and father of five who works in Hamburg, is not perturbed by his poll ratings of about 3 percent, which he says is "not so bad".
"After all, lots of people don't know us yet. The campaign will change that," Lucke told Der Spiegel. "The euro crisis is very complicated and a sizeable portion of the population still follows the government.. That our arguments have not yet reached many people doesn't mean we are wrong," he said.
But to many, a posed photograph in Der Spiegel of Lucke with the deputy head of the radical Left party, with which it has little in common, smacked of desperation.
Lucke has also had to reject accusations that some supporters sympathize with the far right.
Outside the hotel where the party launched its program, newspapers popular with the right-wing militants were being handed out. One supporter hit the headlines with calls for unemployed people to sell their organs and another said people from the "very lowest class" should not be allowed to vote.
The stigma of subscribing to extreme views in Germany, haunted by its Nazi past, has alienated voters, say pollsters.
Many analysts say the AfD is doomed. For Germans, who above all fear instability, single-issue parties are anathema.
"They will not become a political force," said Guellner, who argued Germans want parties that are competent on a range of issues. He compared the AfD to the Pro-DM (deutsche mark) party, founded in 1998 to fight the introduction of the euro but which never gained much nationwide popular support.
Guellner said the AfD overestimated potential support from conservatives who in the end are usually loyal to their party.
"They haven't found the right, charismatic person to lead it - there isn't a Joerg Haider as they had in Austria. But there is latent potential for a populist party here, just not one that is made up of conservatives with Christian values," he said.
(Additional reporting by Natalia Drozdiak and Stephen Brown; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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Erdo?an's chief adviser knows what's behind Turkey's protests ? telekinesis
From Lufthansa to the CIA, Turkey's government has come up with some worrying conspiracy theories to explain Gezi Park
It has to be said that when the Turkish government began to flail around for the "real reasons" behind the Gezi protests, their initial conspiracy theories lacked imagination – the CIA, Europeans jealous of their economic success, unspecified foreign forces in cahoots with terrorists, Twitter, the "interest rate lobby", and, of course, the international Jewish conspiracy. What would a search for a scapegoat be in Turkey (or indeed Greece) without our old friends the Elders of Zion?
Since it was obviously inconceivable that the Turkish people themselves – knowing they were living through a golden age of good governance, piety and profit – would ever take to the streets, there must have been a plot.
Well now we have the answer – it was all a giant telekinetic attack by dark forces to discredit Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, because he had made Turkey a "model for the world". Quite rightly, the man who made this astonishing discovery, YiÄŸit Bulut, has just been made ErdoÄŸan's chief adviser. No, this is not a joke. Telekinesis, you may have noticed, is a Greek word.
Ministers, and the majority of Turkey's media, have been outdoing each other for the last month with outrageous theories and often outright lies to mask ErdoÄŸan's staggering mishandling of a minor planning dispute over an Istanbul park that brought millions on to the streets in protest at his authoritarian style and police violence against demonstrators.
His ruling AK party has variously claimed that the Gezi protests were the work of CNN or the BBC and even Reuters (after one of the agency's reporters asked ErdoÄŸan an "unapproved question"). In one faked newspaper interview, CNN's Christiane Amanpour "confessed" to starting the protests "for money". Fingers were also pointed at leading liberal journalists, some of whom have since been sacked by media owners afraid of incurring further government wrath (Turkey is already the world's No 1 jailer of journalists).
More shocking even than the smearing of those killed by police is that ErdoÄŸan's AK party – once a slick media machine – can still not put a consistent conspiracy story together. It has to be said that Egypt's military coup has not helped the mood of Turkish Islamists – or that in a self-fulfilling prophecy amid so much nuttiness, Turkish bond rates have near doubled in as many months.
What all the many theories lacked – apart from facts, which would "be shortly announced" but never were – was a protean element: something that would lift the whole puzzling debacle of ErdoÄŸan thrashing his own and his country's reputation over a scraggy patch of grass out of the rational altogether and into another dimension.
Step forward Bulut – TV presenter, commentator, and climber of many greasy poles – who until Gezi was best known for his inordinate use of hair oil. Having got his astral ball rolling by declaring that the protests were paid for by the German airline Lufthansa, afraid that "100 million passengers would be diverted from Germany to Turkey" by a controversial monster airport ErdoÄŸan wants to build near Istanbul, Bulut then took flight.
Turkey's enemies, he claimed, were planning to assassinate ErdoÄŸan – by telekinesis. "There is work going on in many centres in the world to kill ErdoÄŸan from afar through methods like telekinesis," Bulut told TV viewers last month. This week Bulut became ErdoÄŸan's official eminence grise.
Utterly mad it may sound, but there may be method to it – a message to diehard religious supporters that ErdoÄŸan's erratic, confrontational behaviour may be because he is engaged in a life-or-death struggle behind the scenes.
Should Turks be worried? They should if this offers a glimpse of Erdoğan's own state of mind. At a mass rally in Istanbul at the height of the protests, he compared himself to Adnan Menderes, the first elected Turkish leader who was hung by the military on a short rope on the prison island where the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan is now held.
Since then, rather than building bridges, ErdoÄŸan has been busy tightening his grip and settling scores – the latest being robbing engineers and architects who so irritated him over Gezi Park of their overseeing role in planning.
Yet in reality the greatest danger to ErdoÄŸan has always been ErdoÄŸan himself and the company he keeps – from his property tycoon son-in-law to his old KasimpaÅŸa pals who go everywhere with him and once locked him inside his armoured Mercedes outside a hospital when he passed out during Ramadan. Only five years ago his new chief adviser was attacking him and his party as a "fascist" threat to Atatürk's secular republic. As a hopeless nostalgic for the Ottoman empire, ErdoÄŸan might be wise to remember that far more sultans died at the hands of their retainers than ever did in battle.