The "Dictatorship of the Elites" in Greece Huffington Post (blog) One of the major mistakes that international and European observers often make in their analyses about Greece is that they focus way too much on the problem rather than the roots of it. The nature of these roots is much more political rather than an ... In Greece: As 'Austerity' Ignites Masses, Elites Turn To Imperial Stormtroopers |
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Tuesday, February 26, 2013
The "Dictatorship of the Elites" in Greece
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Italy halts austerity plan leaving EU in turmoil
Fears that deadlock will lengthen Italy's two-year recession and spill over into rest of the eurozone hit markets across Europe
Three years of German-led austerity and budget cuts aimed at saving the euro and retooling the European economy was left facing one of its biggest challenges as Italian voters' rejection of spending cuts and tax rises opened up a stark new fissure in European politics.
The governing stalemate in Rome and the vote in the general election – by a factor of three to two – against the austerity policies pursued by Italy's humiliated caretaker prime minister, Mario Monti, meant that the spending cuts and tax rises dictated by the eurozone would grind to a halt, risking a re-eruption of the euro crisis after six months of relative stability.
Fears that the deadlock will lengthen Italy's near two-year recession and spill over into the rest of the eurozone hit markets across Europe. The Italian banking sector fell 7% in value, dragging the main MIB stock market index 4% lower.
The market turmoil in Milan spread to Germany, France and the UK, with domestic banks among the biggest fallers. Deutsche Bank saw almost 5% knocked off its value, while Barclays suffered a 4% decline. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4%. The German Dax slumped more than 2% and the Paris Cac was down 2.75%.
The cliffhanger vote saw the maverick comedian Beppe Grillo's 5 Star movement take almost one in four of the votes and the political revival of the ex-prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. But the narrow victor, Pier Luigi Bersani, on the centre-left, claimed the mantle of the premiership, although it was unclear if he would be able to form a government.
Despite the withering popular verdict on cuts and taxes, Brussels and Berlin insisted the austerity programme had to be continued in Italy. France and others seized on the outcome for their own purposes, arguing for a relaxation of spending cuts and greater emphasis on policies to boost growth and job creation.
Bersani moved to try to cobble a government together by wooing the upstart Grillo with tentative talk of a reformist leftist coalition. Looking weary, Bersani said it was time for the 5 Star movement to do more than just demand a clean sweep of Italy's established political order.
"Up to now they have been saying 'All go home'. But now they are here too. So either they go home as well, or they say what they want to do for their country and their children."
Grillo said earlier his followers in parliament would not join a coalition, but would consider proposals "law by law, reform by reform".
Bersani said that, since his four-party alliance had won an outright majority in the lower house of the Italian parliament and more seats than any other grouping in the Senate, it had a responsibility to suggest ways in which Italy could be governed, despite the deadlock in the upper house.
Shunning the idea of a grand coalition with Berlusconi and the right, he proposed a government committed to a five-point plan for sweeping reform of Italy's political parties and institutions.
The north-south split in Europe opened up by the election presaged clashes between eurozone governments, likely to surface at an EU summit next month, amid calls for a shift away from the harsh regime prescribed and driven through by Berlin in recent years as the price of bailing out insolvent eurozone periphery countries.
The Italian stalemate combines with tough negotiations over a bailout for Cyprus, being resisted by Germany, worries about the French economy, an unresolved debt crisis in Spain, and David Cameron's decision to throw Britain's future in Europe into question, making EU politics unusually volatile.
"Italy plays a central role in successfully overcoming Europe's debt crisis," said the German foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle.
"So we assume that the policy of fiscal consolidation and reform will be consistently followed by a new government."
Angela Merkel, bidding for a third term as German chancellor in September, has been banking on a period of eurozone calm in the run-up to her election, but Italian voters have wrecked that calculation.
The Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, recently made head of the political committee that runs the euro, said Monti's policies had to be continued. "They are crucial for the entire eurozone."
The European Commission echoed the calls for sticking with the austerity medicine. Italy has the highest national debt level in the eurozone after Greece, although its budget deficit is in better shape than many others, including France and the Netherlands.
But Paris led the chorus for a policy shift. French government ministers, including Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, demanded a change of course in remarks directed at Berlin.
Spain waited anxiously to see what impact the Italian leap in the dark would have on its debt crisis. "This is a jump to nowhere that does not bode well either for Italy or for Europe," said the foreign minister, Jose-Manuel Garcia-Margallo, adding he was "extremely concerned" about the effect on Spain's borrowing costs.
Both Berlusconi and Grillo have been harshly critical of the Germans, decried Monti's austerity packages, and have raised questions as to whether Italy, the eurozone's third biggest economy, should remain in the single currency. Grillo has called for a referendum on the matter.
Berlusconi rounded on the Germans on Tuesday, declaring that the "spread" – the difference between how much Italy and Germany pay to borrow on the bond markets – had been "invented" two years ago. This was code for saying that Berlin and Frankfurt, the German government and the European Central Bank, conspired to push up the cost of Italian borrowing in 2011 in order to topple Berlusconi and bring in Monti, the technocratic darling of the eurozone elite.
The turmoil saw Italian bond yields also jump, indicating that any new government will be forced to pay a higher interest rate on its debts.
The 10-year Italian bond yield edged back into dangerous territory on Tuesday after it passed 4.9%, although this is a far cry from 2011 when the yields shot above 7%.
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Beppe Grillo's antics may yet shake the whole European system | Simon Jenkins
From Italy to Eastleigh, the economics of self-flagellation have set off a wave of wildcat populism, with unpredictable results
Oh happy day. The Italian election result is a triumph for democracy. "No pope, no government, no police chief," went yesterday's viral tweet, hailing the arrival in Rome of "punk politics". The outcome is an antidote, not just to Italy's corrupt politics, but to the dogma of austerity that now has Europe's economy by the throat. The only way of loosening its grip is through the ballot. Congratulations, Italy.
The most spectacular victor is Beppe Grillo, a rollicking satirist but with a clear message: that austerity, the euro and corruption are jointly to blame for Italy's continuing ills. We can argue the issues, but why bother when no one listens? Just tell those in charge, as he says, to fuck off. When politicians banned Grillo from TV, he turned to the blog and the piazza. His knockout blow was the ballot.
Grillo's chief victim is the short-lived prime minister, Mario Monti. He was pushed into office by the banks a year ago to impose unlimited suffering on the Italian economy, so as to shore up the euro and thus protect German and other bank loans from devaluation. Darling of the bankers' ramp, he was Super-Mario.
Like Greece and with no local currency to take the strain, the Italian economy had to be waterboarded. It shrank by at least 2.2% last year, with official unemployment at about 10%. Monti promised to hold the Italian economy in its downward spiral, without growth and ever less able to repay its mounting debt. Future generations would be in perpetual bondage to German banks.
Grillo spoke for those generations. His one roughly coherent policy may be a referendum on the euro, but leaving the euro is the key that unlocks the prison door. Even the revival of the outrageous Silvio Berlusconi is good news: his irresponsibility might contribute to pushing Italy into financial crisis and eventual salvation.
For what seems an entire decade, Europe is to be dominated by the "politics of austerity", a gamble with the economy of an entire continent on a par with that of the 1920s. Leaders (and their bankers) claim that austerity is a "necessary" punishment, to be visited on European people for allowing their governments to borrow beyond their means. The policy offers no growth to pay off the debts, and for the eurozone no devaluation to reduce their incidence. The message is forget Keynes and take the medicine, even if it is poison.
Despite being outside the euro straitjacket, Britain's George Osborne holds that austerity knows no bounds. As he starves the economy of demand and it duly shrinks, his revenue slides – and the debt and deficit rise. There is a classic vicious circle. Sooner or later, austerity becomes an end, not a means: an obsessive self-flagellation. These finance ministers are like Aztec priests at an altar. If the blood sacrifice fails to deliver rain, there must be more blood.
You can fool a democracy only so long. The current anti-Keynesian dogma has lasted four years and is just not working. In Greece and Spain, unemployment is touching an appalling quarter of the workforce. France is in trouble and, even in Germany, the strain is telling as growth falls.
Europe's leaders are steadily dragging their joint economies towards depression, afflicting their competitive relation with the outside world possibly for ever. Nor can they blame others. They are doing it to themselves, voluntarily, in obeisance to the gods of confidence, who long ago abandoned them.
Clearly no new idea will dent these dogmatists. Economists are to modern government what doctors were to tobacco companies, as good as the last fee. Change will only come, as Chesterton said, with "a sharp blow to the head" and from a blunt instrument.
That instrument is the ballot. If there is one thing a politician dreads more than a central banker, it is an election. Greece briefly fell last year under the spell of the anti-austerity star, Alexis Tsipras. Holland is fiercely anti-austerity. France saw the anti-austerity left bundle Nicolas Sarkozy out of office. Spanish austerity is at the mercy of maverick separatists. Italy has Grillo, with heaven knows what result.
Tomorrow at the Eastleigh byelection, the party of Britain's own Grillo is predicted to shock the coalition government. Ukip's Nigel Farage may come from right of stage, as do some of Europe's more alarming anti-austerity politicians, but his appeal is similar to Grillo's. Conventional politics has gone bureaucratically native. The European tier of government is aloof and the eurozone rigid. One-solution Europe does not fit all. The wildcats have the same cry: follow me to the forum and throw the bastards out.
Italy has long been Britain's favourite foreign country. Even as its two great institutions, the republic and the catholic church, stumble into corruption and immorality, all must be well. This is Italy where even the ungovernable is bella figura. No one believes this will cease.
Yet wildcat populism always terrifies the existing order. In America it is the Tea Party and Occupy. In Scandinavia, Holland, Austria and France, a communist, poujardist or fascist periodically crashes the system. Mosley did it in pre-war Britain. Since then Powellism, nationalism, Respect, even the odd Liberal has threatened, for a while, to upset the bipartisan apple cart.
It seldom lasts. Italian politics will establish a new equilibrium. If lucky it will be outside the euro and on the way to recovery; if not it will be in lifetime bondage to eurozone bankers. Either way Italy will remember the heady moment of February 2013, and so should we.
Italy's banks bear brunt of inconclusive election with share fall
Italian banking sector falls 7%, with stock markets down owing to fears stalemate in Rome could lead to eurozone crisis reigniting
Italian banks have borne the brunt of fears that deadlock in Rome following inconclusive parliamentary elections would undermine the country's prospects for recovery.
The banking sector fell 7% in value on Tuesday, dragging the main Italian stock market index 4% lower.
In a sign that investors are wary of the eurozone crisis reigniting, markets in Germany, France and the UK followed suit, with banks among the biggest fallers. Barclays share fell by 4% to 299p while Royal Bank of Scotland, which is still 83%-owned by the UK government, lost 3.4% to close at 342p.
The FTSE 100 was 1.4% lower at 6268 points, the German Dax more than 2% at 7596 and the Paris Cac 2.75% at 3619.
Analysts warned that several smaller Italian banks were vulnerable to collapse if the economic situation worsened.
Rome has pumped €4bn (£3.44bn) into the Tuscan bank Monti Paschi di Siena in recent months after the latter revealed undisclosed losses. Analysts fear more regional banks could go bankrupt without further government support.
To prevent a run on two regional banks, the Italian banking regulator banned financial bets on a decline in their share price, known as short selling. The two-day ban is expected to shore up support for the banks and keep hedge funds that make money from short selling at bay.
Italian bond yields also jumped, indicating that the government will be forced to pay a higher interest rate on its debts.
With debt in excess of 120% of GDP, Italy is vulnerable to a rise in interest rates. Last year, the yields on its 10-year bonds shot above 6.6%. The shock, when combined with Spain's near bankruptcy, forced the European Central Bank governor, Mario Draghi, to issue an emergency statement that the bank would do "all in its power" to protect the euro.
The 10-year Italian bond yield edged back into dangerous territory on Tuesday, moving above 4.9%.
But in a swift indication of the speed that market confidence can evaporate, the government's borrowing costs shot up by more than two thirds at an auction of six-month bonds. Investors demanded a yield of 1.237%, the highest since October. The yield was 0.730% in a similar sale a month ago.
Raj Badiani, an economist at the French bank Société Générale, said pressure was mounting on Italy to its tackle deep-seated employment restrictions and barriers to new private sector investment, adding that without reforms, the country is unlikely to end its double-dip recession, which has last nearly two years.
"Pressure could take the form of rising borrowing costs to painfully high levels, which could force Italy to approach the European stability mechanism (ESM)," said Badiani, referring to the rescue fund already propping up Portugal, Ireland and Greece. But Italy is unlikely to go cap in hand to Brussels, he added.
Public spending cuts pushed through the Italian parliament by Mario Monti's technocratic administration have dramatically reduced Italy's annual budget deficit and restricted the amount of new debt the country needs to sell on the private markets to survive.
Most of the large Italian banks are also protected from a spike in interest rates on their own debt, after raising billions of euros in reserves, much of it in the form of cheap loans from the ECB.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch foreign politician who chairs the eurozone's Eurogroup of finance ministers, said: "I think and I hope there is a broad understanding that there is also a responsibility for the stability of the eurozone as a whole, and that agreements have to be met.
"Pulling Europe from the economic doldrums requires a stable, political policy, also in Italy."
Dario Perkins, an economist at Lombard Street Research, said: "There is a subtle message from these elections. One that if the rest of Europe ignores, will be disastrous for the euro in the longer term. This was a vote against austerity.
"The future of the euro remains in question and if the politicians don't take action to restore growth to the euro area, [Italian comedian and Five Star Movement con-founder] Beppe Grillo might mark the start of a new trend in European politics."
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Magdalena Sepúlveda: 'Austerity is devastating for the world's poorest'
The international human rights lawyer challenges government policies on their excessive impact on the poorest
As the UN's special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Chilean lawyer Magdalena Sepúlveda is proving to be one of the most vocal international opponents of austerity. Since being appointed by the UN in 2008, just as the financial crisis hit, she has staunchly argued that austerity policies all over the world are having a "disproportionate impact" on the poor and are undermining the human rights of vulnerable people.
Sepúlveda will be in the UK on for a public event, Austerity on Trial, at the London School of Economics that will pit opponents and defenders of austerity against one another. Speaking in advance of her visit, she leaves no room for misinterpretation of her analysis.
Her words come close on the heels of warnings from a consortium of UK charities that the government is in danger of reneging on its human rights obligations because welfare cuts are leaving thousands of families short of food.
The "cumulative effect" of multiple, ill-thought-through policy changes is devastating for vulnerable individuals and damaging to social cohesion, Sepúlveda believes. In some countries austerity measures "are really ideological," she suggests. "[Governments] are using the [financial] crisis as an excuse to implement a certain agenda."
She acknowledges that governments have the discretion to decide their economic policies, but says that they do have to respect human rights obligations. "The process and the results of these measures are violating the rights of people," she says.
For example, she points to austerity measures that are being designed and implemented without following a democratic process. "They have not respected human rights principles like participation." Any claims that the cost of consulting the public would be too high are simply misleading, she adds. She gives short shrift to any rationalisation of austerity based on there being no alternative. "[Governments] are ignoring the alternatives as if [austerity policies] were inevitable. And clearly they are not inevitable.''
Sepúlveda, 41, has worked in the human rights legal field for the best part of two decades. Her interest has deep roots. She was two years old when Augusto Pinochet snatched power in a military coup in her native Chile in 1973. If the torture and "disappearance'' of thousands of her fellow citizens raised her consciousness of human rights, it was the ballooning poverty rate ("around 40%"), and the devastating effect it had on people's ability to meet basic needs like food and shelter, that galvanised her.
Her visit to the UK is informal so she is prevented by UN protocol from commenting on specific UK government policies, but her wider critique is blistering. Running through a damning checklist of the worst ravages of austerity it is clear she regards both the policies and the processes used to implement them by the UK, and other governments, as nothing short of an assault on the poorest in their populations.
"The responses of governments that we have seen worldwide to confront the crisis through these fiscal cuts or austerity measures affect human rights in several ways. Most of the countries have decreased spending in social protection and they have eroded the social welfare systems. The cuts in welfare benefits have an enormous, disproportionate impact on the poor. People living in poverty depend on social services more."
That some groups are visibly bearing the brunt of austerity is "clear evidence" that governments are not meeting their human rights obligations she argues. "From a rights perspective it's very important to have the principle of equality and non-discrimination, meaning that certain groups should not have a disproportionate impact."
In addition to policies that trigger increases in child poverty and adversely affect groups such as people with disabilities, there has also been an "enormous and very traumatic gender impact". Lone parents – the vast majority of whom are women – are facing some of the worst fallout of austerity everywhere because numerous policies affect them simultaneously, including "cuts in child benefit, unemployment benefits, [and] cuts in care facilities", she says.
Sepúlveda castigates politicians for distracting from the genuine pain people are experiencing by talking about benefit fraud as if it is commonplace. She says most studies show that there is "very, very little" fraudulent activity by poor people. In addition, she says, the deployment of obscure methods of means testing that are very costly administratively, coupled with the crude application of sanctions to individuals who fail to meet arbitrary conditions attached to benefits, have created profoundly "unfair" systems.
Meanwhile, a crucial adjunct to the austerity agenda that is compounding the problem, she contends, is a toxic public discourse that berates and patronises those living in poverty. The skivers versus strivers rhetoric is not unique to the UK, Sepúlveda says. Stigmatisation of the poor has become normal everywhere. "I'm obsessed with this [issue]. Everywhere I go, I hear the same [thing]. The discourse that you see in the media in the UK, like the [idea of] scroungers … you hear it over and over again, everywhere, by policymakers and by the elites."
The reality is "just the contrary", she says. "What happens is that [the poor] have so many obstacles [to improving their situation]. What is important is to really fight these prejudices that are so entrenched in those who are better off [and] which are contaminating public policy. Policymakers are making policies on the basis of negative stereotypes that are not true."
According to Sepúlveda, one of the most impressive developments in international human rights in the past couple of decades has been the acceptance of the "interconnection" between civil liberties and other "economic, cultural and social" rights. Significantly, this has become enshrined in UN treaties and domestic law. The UK is a signatory to the UN international convenant on economic, social and cultural rights. And it is against this backdrop, she says, that austerity must be challenged head-on. "I think the human rights discourse is a very powerful tool to mobilise people's consciousness; to build public support. But not only that – it also provides some accountability mechanism."
Prominent people are beginning to question austerity on the international stage. Sepúlveda's fellow UN rapporteur on food, Olivier De Schutter, recently attacked the impact of austerity on people's ability to feed themselves. More surprisingly, last month the International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, voiced reservations about George Osborne's strategy.
When it comes to impeding the austerity juggernaut, Sepúlveda says, individual human rights cases in courts around the world can have "a very significant impact". However, she warns that with unrest on the streets of countries like Greece already widespread, and more cuts to come elsewhere, there needs to be a concerted effort to raise awareness that austerity is much more than a narrow economic policy.
"I'm afraid that we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg now in terms of impact. The great majority of people in several countries that are really suffering … have exhausted all coping mechanisms. I think that we have to mobilise, to raise awareness that there are alternatives. And we should pressure governments for accountability."
Curriculum vitae
Age 41.
Lives Geneva, Switzerland.
Family Married.
Education Monjas Inglesas Reñaca, Viña del Mar, Chile; Universidad de ValparaÃso, Chile, bachelor of law; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, postgraduate diploma, constitutional and comparative law; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain, postgraduate diploma, human rights; University of Essex, master's of law, international human rights law; University of Utrecht, Netherlands, philosophy PhD, international law of human rights.
Career May 2008-present: UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights; 2006-12: research director, International Council on Human Rights Policy, Geneva; 2005‑06: consultant, office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva; 2002-04: co-director, international law and human rights programme, UN mandated University for Peace, San José, Costa Rica; 2000‑02: researcher, Netherlands Institute of Human Rights Research, Utrecht.
Interests Travel.