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Tuesday, June 10, 2014
The futures of Greece and China lie in the sea
Greece Tops Lonely Planet’s ‘Best in Europe’ List
This Chart May Drive A Stake Through Austerity Cheerleaders
Remember 2010, when everyone was arguing about whether governments hit by the Great Recession should be cutting their way back to health?
Here's a chart that shows the cutters were probably wrong.
The Center for Economic And Policy Research's Ben Wolcott has calculated the magnitude of countries' attempts to balance their books through austerity, versus ones that took a less severe approach.
"...If the pain caucus predictions were correct, we would expect to see a strong positive correlation between changes in the structural balance and employment rate," he writes. "In this worldview, as countries like Greece and Spain cut their budgets in order to qualify for international support, increased confidence in financial markets would return them to full employment quickly."
That didn't happen. The X-axis below shows the extent to which countries tried to achieve greater structural (i.e. non-cyclical) fiscal "balance" through spending cuts and tax increases. The Y-axis shows employment. Nearly every country that kept government spending mostly the same, or even increased it, in the throes of the Great Recession now has higher rates of employment four years on.
Those who attempted to convince the market of its fiscal discipline do not.
Wolcott:
This image very crisply suggests what Keynesians have been arguing in more nuanced ways for four years, namely that many countries cut fiscal spending too soon, prolonging the negative impacts of the Great Recession for workers.
Wolcott goes no to note how this phenomenon has played out in Japan:
No country has a debt level anywhere near Japan’s which is now approaching 250 percent of GDP. Nonetheless the country’s new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, pushed through a vigorous stimulus program that began to take effect early in 2013. The economy responded as would be predicted by textbook Keynesian economics, growth accelerated, the inflation rate increased modestly, and the employment to population ratio rose by 1.7 percentage points, the equivalent of 4 million new jobs in the United States.
No one is suggesting fiscal discipline is never called for. But this chart shows that it's a really bad idea to go for it when everything is collapsing.
SEE ALSO: Every Worker In America Should Love This Chart
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Yaya Toure injury doubt for opening game against Japan
Ivory Coast's African Player of the Year Yaya Toure is doubtful for their opening World Cup group game with Japan on Saturday, coach Sabri Lamouchi told the Ivorian press on Tuesday. The 31-year-old Manchester City star -- whose performances and 20 goals for his club last season were instrumental in bringing them the Premier League title -- is still struggling with a hamstring injury he suffered in the title deciding win over West Ham on the last day of the league season. Toure, who could be in line to be named African Player of the Year for a fourth time based on his performances for Manchester City, is pivotal to Ivory Coast's hopes of reaching the knockout stages for the first time. They failed to progress from the group stage in 20006 and 2010 but Lamouchi's side have been given a kinder draw this time round with aside from Japan their other opponents being Colombia, who are missing their talismanic striker Radamel Falcao, and goalshy Greece.
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Japan pinning its World Cup hopes on Honda and Kagawa finding their form in Brazil
SOROCABA, Brazil (AP) — One is a bleach blond dynamo who combines street muscle with a creative touch. The other is a featherweight who darts in and out of impossible spaces wearing a mischievous grin.
Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa are Japan's biggest stars — and the heart of their team's attack.
Both are coming off disappointing seasons with their European clubs, Honda at AC Milan and Kagawa at Manchester United. Honda fell far below the hype that accompanied him when he left CSKA Moscow in January to be Milan's new No. 10. Kagawa had a season of frustration at Old Trafford as he struggled to get playing time under new manager David Moyes.
That could be a worry for Japan as the players prepare for the World Cup, hoping to make the knockout stages. It could also be an advantage: Low expectations, fresh legs and, above all, something to prove may be a winning formula for this duo in Brazil.
"The important stuff starts from now," Kagawa told reporters after Japan's first training session in Sorocaba, Brazil on Sunday. "All my body is thinking about is the first game."
If Honda and Kagawa find their form at the World Cup, they will cause trouble for their opponents.
Both are creative players who have an almost clairvoyant understanding of one another. The pinpoint passing and flowing attacks that have become the signature of Italian coach Alberto Zaccheroni's Japan are orchestrated by these two complementary talents.
"Honda is so physical and dynamic," said Japan-based football writer Andrew McKirdy. "And players like Kagawa who are very nimble and sharp . can profit from feeding off Honda's movements."
The players' struggles this season were not entirely of their own making.
Honda arrived at a Milan in turmoil. The one-time formidable champions were languishing in the middle of the Serie A table. Adding to the challenge of adjusting to a new league in mid-season, Milan sacked manager Massimiliano Allegri the day Honda made his Italian league debut.
New coach Clarence Seedorf, who was sacked by Milan on Monday, played Honda on the side, an unnatural position for a player who thrives in the central midfield position.
Kagawa also was shunted to the side whenever Moyes chose to play him. He showed some of the touches of class that made him a star at his former club Borussia Dortmund, where he won the Bundesliga twice. But he never won the respect of Moyes, whose troubled stewardship of Manchester United after the departure of Alex Ferguson created a difficult environment in which to make an impact.
Kagawa weighed up the pressures of playing for a top Premier League team with representing Japan after training on Monday.
"For Japan, you bear the expectations of the country, so it's a different kind of pressure," Kagawa said. "On a day to day level at Manchester United, they're always demanding results and you're competing with lots of players."
The players also have personalities that complement one another. Kagawa brings a touch of mischief to the pitch and off of it — making him a popular presence in the changing room.
At a Christmas party for United, Kagawa had his teammates in stitches by cranking up the music and dancing Gangnam Style.
Honda exudes a certain arrogance in a nation that prizes humility, yet he seems to be an inspiration to his fellow Japanese players.
Days after Goldman Sachs gave Japan exactly "zero percent" chance of winning the World Cup, Honda told Japanese media that the Blue Samurai could go all the way.
That's almost certainly a day-dream.
But Japan does have the potential to pull off one or two surprises, and has every chance of emerging from a Group C that also features Colombia, Ivory Coast and Greece.
Much will depend, though, on whether this Honda can find his form and become his team's Ferrari.
News Topics: Sports, 2014 FIFA World Cup, FIFA World Cup, Men's soccer, Professional soccer, Soccer, International soccer, Events, Men's sportsPeople, Places and Companies: Keisuke Honda, David Moyes, Alberto Zaccheroni, Massimiliano Allegri, Clarence Seedorf, Alex Ferguson, Japan, Brazil, New Hampshire, East Asia, Asia, South America, Latin America and Caribbean, United States, North America
Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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