Greece may not leave the euro zone after all and the coalition government is not finished yet, according to a New York Times report. The political instability of the last few weeks and the predicted failure of the coalition to elect president of the Hellenic republic has generated a scenario in which Greece will go to snap elections, the extreme leftist opposition party SYRIZA will win and their policies will lead Greece out of the euro zone. However, the NYT report says, there has to be a series of “unfortunate” circumstances in order for the scenario to become reality. First, the Greek Parliament must fail to elect a new president. However likely that is, there is still the possibility that Premier Antonis Samaras may squeeze out the 180 votes needed in the third ballot. Independent MPs, some from the Democratic Left, even some Independent Greeks (ANEL) MPs can be persuaded by Samaras at the very end. According to the report, there is a slim chance that the Greek PM may sacrifice himself and give his seat to a technocrat who will be more widely accepted and his nominee will get the votes needed. If the coalition manages to elect president, negotiations with international creditors will resume, Greece would tighten the 2015 budget, complete required reforms and get a precautionary credit line. The hated “memorandum” will end and Greece would have to go to the international markets to borrow. Otherwise, if there is no president elected by December 29, the country will have to go to general elections in early 2015, in which SYRIZA will most likely win. The SYRIZA program, if implemented, will not be good for Greece, according to the report. The party’s insistence on a large debt write-off and the populist promises for more public spending may result in a direct confrontation with the lenders, which may lead Greece to bankruptcy. SYRIZA chief Alexis Tsipras believes that he can blackmail Europe using the domino effect threat. However, European economists say that a Grexit will not affect the rest of the euro zone. Without a deal with the troika, Athens would not be able to go to the bond market and would probably run out of money and a Grexit will be very possible. Still, there is always the chance that SYRIZA will be forced to conform to the troika’s demands once they see that they need to keep borrowing at low interest rates. Also, it is not certain that SYRIZA will get an overall majority and they may be forced to collaborate with PASOK or To Potami, both pro-European parties, therefore they may not be able to form a government. In that case, there may be another election in which unpopular Samaras may be replaced by a more centrist New Democracy MP like Kyriakos Mitsotakis who may tip the balance in favor of the center-rightist party. The NYT report concludes that the replacement of Samaras may be the best solution to the present Greek political puzzle.
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