The dispute in Falkirk with Unite shows the potential for disillusioned Labour supporters running for office under a different banner
It's late 2016 and after 18 months of political turmoil, John McDonnell and Nigel Farage have finally agreed to form a grand coalition, following pressure from Angela Merkel and president-elect Hilary Clinton, increasingly concerned about the threat to stability in Europe. Unite and Ukip have agreed that Britain will not leave the EU, but will be granted greater national powers, including its own economic regeneration programme, with some tougher immigration controls tied to the level of unemployment. Little Britain (now Scotland has seceded) will keep a nuclear capability, but there will be no full-scale Trident replacement. Greengrocers will be able to sell their produce by the pound.
Pretty unlikely you would think. Isn't our party political system immune to insurgent parties from the extremes? But 20 years ago few would have given any credence to Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley sitting down in the same room, much less forming what by all accounts was a pretty successful power-sharing government in Northern Ireland. Could the same political process that led to the two extremes of Sinn Féin and the DUP taking over the mainstream in the province be happening on the mainland?
As the traditional parties of left and right creep ever closer to each other to contest a narrow consensus of policy split-hairs, we have already seen a significant body of support on the right split away to Ukip. Second places in the Eastleigh and South Shields byelections, backed up by widespread gains in the council elections, seem to indicate more than protest votes going to the party.
If it is consolidating a 12-15% chunk of the electorate around issues such as immigration, the EU, traditional marriage and grammar schools, next year's European elections held under PR could give it a major breakthrough. Success breeds success in politics: more elected representatives, more activists, a more organised party structure. The party still has its chaotic moments – overt racists sneaking under the wire, Farage trying to sell the home counties to the Scots. But it starts to look more solid. Farage is not (just) the lounge bar buffoon the left would like to paint him as. He can be articulate and affable, which strikes a chord with many voters. When the near winner of Eastleigh appeared on Question Time recently, there were leftists tweeting in astonishment how they agreed with almost everything she said.
So far the left has stayed solid. Neither the Greens, Respect, Bob Crow's Socialist party nor the National Health party have made any inroads into Labour's electoral support. But the dissension on the left has grown ever louder as Labour has waved the white flag on the economy, welfare and education in recent weeks, leaving more and more people to ask what on earth the party is for if it agrees with the coalition on all the fundamentals.
The saving grace for Labour – and indeed what underpins its belief in cleaving to the centre, however far to the right it moves – is that the disillusioned on the left, mainly poorer people, tend not to engage in politics or vote – or even register to vote – unlike the disgusteds of Tunbridge Wells on the right. However, George Galloway's election in Bradford shows that at least parts of this constituency can be mobilised, if they think their interests and views will actually be represented.
Which is perhaps the key to what happened in Northern Ireland. Pressure from an establishment inside and outside the province forced the traditional parties of the two communities – the mainly Catholic SDLP and the Protestant UUP – to publicly support the "respectable" views of these elites, rather than their own members and supporters, until other parties which would give them a voice stole their support and replaced them.
Right now key components of Labour's constituency – public sector workers, the low-paid, those on benefits, young people without secure jobs or homes, trade union activists – are all feeling increasingly cast adrift by the party it thinks should be representing them. It might only take one flashpoint – such as the dispute in Falkirk between the Labour party and the Unite union over candidate selection – to spark a viable new voice on the left that could peel off many disillusioned supporters and start winning council or even parliamentary seats.
Democracy can only work if the parties represent all sections of the electorate and give them a voice in the political process. If that doesn't happen, and large groups are excluded for long periods, the unpredictable can happen (check out Greece and Italy). Is it likely that we will see a London version of the Chuckle Brothers marching behind the mace? Probably not. But don't bet the house on who has the last laugh after the next general election.
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