Greece Outside In: GET READY: We're About To Get A Ton Of Crucial Information On The Health Of The World Economy

Monday, July 1, 2013

GET READY: We're About To Get A Ton Of Crucial Information On The Health Of The World Economy

manufacturing pmi

HEADS UP: The world's biggest economies will be publishing their June manufacturing PMI reports over the next two days. This is our scorecard.

"Fireworks are a given, even without minor considerations like the 4th of July!" exclaimed Societe Generale's Kit Juckes.

This may be the most closely watched round of PMI reports in a long time as global economic growth hangs in the balance.

Last month, we learned that manufacturing activity was just above stagnation. The chart on the right from Markit summarizes all of the May and April PMI reports.

In recent weeks, volatility has returned to the the global financial markets as the Federal Reserve has signaled it could soon taper its stimulative bond-buying program. But any action would be conditioned on ongoing improvement in the U.S. economic data.

Abroad, China's massive economy has shown signs of slowing as credit conditions have become tighter.

Meanwhile in Western Europe, the economies continue to be deeply troubled. However, they are also showing signs of improvement.

PMI

At the beginning of each month, Markit, HSBC, RBC, JP Morgan, and several other major data gathering institutions publish the latest local readings of the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for countries around the world.

PMI is one of the best leading indicators of the economy.

Each reading is based on surveys of hundreds of companies. Read more about it at Markit.

These are not the most closely followed data points. However, the power of the insights is unparalleled. Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock's Russ Koesterich thinks it's one of the most underrated indicators.

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