Britain’s economy grew by 0.7% in the last three months, and GDP-per-head is finally back at pre-crisis levelsBreaking: UK GDP grew by 0.7%GDP-per-capita back at 2008 peakBut manufacturing output fell by 0.3%Figures could put pressure to raise interest ratesReasons to be cautious about GDP 10.15am BST After a slow start, Britain is the third-fastest growing member of the G7 since the financial crisis, behind Canada and the US: 10.07am BST Oil and gas extraction also made a positive contribution to growth, with output jumping by 7.8%.The ONS say that may be due to tax cuts for the oil industry announced in March’s budget. 9.59am BST This is disappointing. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank by 0.3% during the last quarter, dealing another blow to hopes of a “March of the Makers”.In contrast, the business services and finance sub-sector grew by 0.8%. 9.55am BST I know we bang on about services being the ‘dominant’ part of the economy. But it’s true.For all the talk of manufacturing revival, only the service sector is larger than its pre-crisis peak: 9.53am BST The UK economy has now grown for 10 straight quarters, and bounced back from its weakness at the start of the year: 9.44am BST UK GDP growth in Q2 leaps to 0.7%, not cold, not too hot. No wonder the PM was so full of beans: up in a mo in Singapore talking corruption 9.43am BST Chancellor George Osborne has welcomed today’s figures with a flurry of automotive metaphors:GDP growth 0.7%. Shows Britain motoring ahead with economy producing as much per head as ever before. We must stay on road we've set out on 9.42am BST Now this is significant. Britain’s economic output, per person, has finally reached its level achieved before the crisis.The ONS says that:The 0.7% increase in GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 implies that GDP per head would be broadly equal to the pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. ONS says UK GDP per head now "broadly level" with its pre-crisis peak 9.42am BST The total UK economy is now 5.2% higher than its pre-crisis peak in early 2008. 9.36am BST Once again, Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter.@ONS UK #GDP in Q2 (1st est.) +0.7%. Thank goodness for services... #UKeconomy #GDP http://t.co/ucRgatQ3iO pic.twitter.com/JHHfOp6WNx 9.35am BST You can see the full report from the Office for National Statistics here:Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 9.34am BST Britain’s agriculture sector shrank by 0.7% during the quarter. 9.33am BST Here’s some detail:Britain’s service sector grew by 0.7% during the last quarter, maintaining its dominant contribution to the economy. 9.33am BST On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.6% - down from 2.9% three months ago. 9.30am BST Here we go! Growth across the UK accelerated in the last quarter. 9.20am BST The pound is dipping a little as traders get edgy with 9.30am BST approaching..... #GBP weakness heading into UK Q2 GDP figure in 15 mins. #headsup 9.11am BST Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, also believes today’s growth data could put the Bank of England in the spotlight:An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening.Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound. 8.59am BST Just 30 minutes to go......Upcoming event in 30 min [08:30 GMT] - Preliminary UK GDP (Quarter on Quarter, cons:0.7%, prev:0.4%) #forex #fx #finance 8.59am BST Back in the City, oil giant BP has fallen back into the red as the costs of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to mount.My (new) colleague Graham Ruddick has the story: Related: BP reveals $6.3bn quarterly loss due to Deepwater Horizon bill 8.54am BST There are a range of forecasts for today’s GDP reading - from a punchy 0.8% growth down to a mediocre 0.4%.UK Q2 GDP growth f'cast to rise to 0.7% qq from 0.3%: @ReutersPolls. Range 0.4-0.8%; top 5 most accurate saying 0.7% pic.twitter.com/9uVlWtxOhw 8.44am BST French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%.Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs.The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off. 8.39am BST Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP:Paparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDHThe troika begins work in Athens amid tight security - VIDEO - http://t.co/cPsToKBpGL pic.twitter.com/EGFCIuqVDq 8.33am BST The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST. 8.24am BST Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons.... Related: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana Coyle 8.16am BST Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better.From the Press Association’s preview:Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk. Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome. 8.08am BST Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs.Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown.Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate 8.04am BST Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday) 7.51am BST Good morning.We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months.“Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.”We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47ZBreaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqcWarm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4 Continue reading...
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