The bearish case for spot gold prices here, according to Morgan Stanley, involve a worsening demand picture from China coinciding with a rise in rates here in the US. MS sees more than 20% potential downside from here ($1100 per ounce) should this scenario play out… Scenarios:Likely vs. Worst-case 1. likely case scenario for gold = US$1,050/oz …drifts lower on Greece’s latest debt resolution + robust/stable USD + weak oil price, but holds abovesignificant $1,000/oz = implies US$14/oz silver (i.e.current Au:Ag ratio holds). 2. worst casescenario for gold = US$800/oz …requires another Chinaequity market correction + commencement of rate hikecyclein US + central bank sell-down of reserves = implies $10-12/oz for silver (i.e. both prices + ratio, broadly correspond with 2008Q4/GFC lows). To understand why higher real rates are such a threat to gold, have a look at the below chart: Source: Morgan StanleyJoin the conversation about this story »
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