As negotiations between Greece and creditors seem to stall each day and the country is perilously close to missing its due payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of the month, the Greek government is optimistic that a deal is feasible, even at the last minute. This optimism, expressed on a daily basis by various cabinet members, may seem unfounded, as most reports and headlines from international media sound like warning shots. At the same time, European officials make statements about default and Grexit based on the fact that the Greek government talks publicly about saying a brave “no” to creditors’ austerity demands, thereby saying “no” to an agreement. With state coffers practically empty and revenues lower than expected, one wonders where this optimism stems from. Yet, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has a good reason to be optimistic: At the moment, and in the foreseeable future, he has no political opponent. With Antonis Samaras stubbornly clinging to New Democracy’s presidential seat, SYRIZA’s main opposition is as threatening as a toothless chihuahua. Tsipras’ popularity in opinion polls remains high, while New Democracy is plunging on vote intention. Not to mention that the conservative party carries the stigma of putting the country in the creditors’ shackles. So, now European leaders and top officials know that they are stuck with Mr. Tsipras, whether they like it or not. Their initial pressure on him and the leftist SYRIZA government with the hope that the Greek population will shift has been proven fruitless. Of course they would prefer to deal with Mr. “yes-to-everything” Samaras, but this is history. Even if creditors pushed the Greek side so hard that they would force Mr. Tsipras to snap elections, a SYRIZA win with a larger margin would be as certain as taxes. So, a deal should be granted to Greece. Even at some political cost for certain European heads of state. In the beginning of SYRIZA’s rule, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had kept a discreet distance. Now, Europe’s most powerful country leader is showing to all sides that she has taken it upon herself to solve the Greek debt problem. No European leader would want to take the responsibility of forcing an EU member to bankruptcy. With a little urging from overseas, nevertheless. U.S. President Barack Obama has often stated that the Greek issue must be solved for the benefit of the world economy. International stock exchanges are seesawing as the standoff in negotiations continues. Europe is a little antsy too. Greece’s bankruptcy or exit from the Eurozone would not only hurt the common currency but will also put a hurdle on investments from Asia and Japan. At the same time, Spain and Portugal state bonds will receive huge pressure if Greece goes bankrupt. These countries, along with others that are vulnerable to bankruptcy due to large sovereign debt, could see their economies tumble. This may land a huge blow to the international economy and lead into a vicious cycle. So European creditors will back down, eventually. All these defiant statements and the assumed brave stance Greece’s government is holding are for internal consumption only. Us Greeks, we have seen our wealth shrink substantially and received a giant slap in our pride over the past five years. We have seen the previous governments tying us to harsh loan deals and now we see Mr. Tsipras trying hard to sign a new deal that will get us out of recession. He may not have a plan for growth — or at least he has never publicized one — but he is seeking a more fair deal for Greece. And all signs are in Greece’s favor. A new agreement will be signed, with more compromises from the creditors’ side. Maybe Mr. Tsipras will get a slap on the wrist by his European peers for his disobedience, but that would be the extend of it.
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