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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Why U.S. Investors Should Hedge Dollar, Watch Korea

Source: blogs.barrons.com - Monday, May 11, 2015 As countries to fight for market share as a result of overcapacity, South Korea may be the next stock market to benefit. So says Richard Bernstein , chief investment officer of the New York advisory firm that bears his name. Here are other themes he sees for investors as the global market gets more competitive: Bloomberg News Shopping in Seoul, South Korea. 1) The U.S. dollar’s strength is in its infancy. Just as companies might lower prices to undercut the competition and fight for market share, we expect countries to directly or indirectly depreciate their currencies to gain market share. 2) Investing outside the United States will increasingly require currency hedging … The dollar’s strength will become a more significant drag on non-US returns than it was during the past decade. 3) U.S. inflation expectations are probably too high. Although an increase in oil and gasoline prices are likely to filter through to higher CPI figures in the U.S., we find it difficult to reconcile higher inflation expectations with market share competition. 4) We think Japan and Korea are big winners in Asia. 5) Greece remains in the Euro . … Greece is likely to stay in the Euro because Germany and other core European countries need the peripheral countries to remain in the Eurozone in order to keep the Euro from appreciating … it would help the German economy more if Greece stayed in the Eurozone and the Euro was weaker. The Vanguard FTSE EmergingAll Related


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