All the latest economic and financial news, including Greece’s debt negotiations and the latest PMI surveys from China and the eurozoneDombrovskis: Greek talks to finish ‘in May or so’French private sector growth disappointsGerman growth slows Chinese factory PMI hits one-year low 10.13am BST Wait. Greece in limbo = "Grimbo"? Stop it, Citi. Just stop it. This is worse than GRIN. 10.11am BST I’ve got a personal theory that you can measure the state of the eurozone crisis by the number of ‘catchy’ terms dreamed up by City analysts.And Citigroup have just added another one to the lexicon -- by warning that Greece risks sliding into a protracted limbo -- or “Grimbo”.“Over time, the stressed liquidity situation, and notably deposit-withdrawal restrictions for banks, would significantly increase pressure on the Greek government, making fresh elections likely.Those could produce a mandate for a new bailout agreement with the euro zone or pave the way for an eventual Grexit, but this could still leave Greece in limbo for an extended period of time.”#Grexit Is So 2012. Citigroup Introduces #Grimbo to crisis lexicon. http://t.co/KYIYNhTjrQ pic.twitter.com/jxy5ihhYqx 9.53am BST After a steady start, European stock markets have now fallen into the red - not helped by the disappointing PMI data from France this morning. Wall Street is expected to dip too when it opens in a few hours time.Equities not looking to good this am DAX - 147 ITALY -242 STOXX -47 FTSE -18 SPX -10.5 DOW -103 9.52am BST The ONS has also reported that Britain’s public sector net borrowing requirement (the deficit) fell by 11% in the 2014-15 financial year.The UK borrowed £87.3bn to balance the books, meaning the government has achieved its target of a deficit of £90bn or below.That £87bn UK deficit is down £11bn on the year before, say official statsOsborne, on @BBCr4today, tries to bluster his way out of basic point: he abandoned his deficit reduction plan (pic) pic.twitter.com/URlrEEL3lP 9.39am BST Crumbs. UK retail sales fell by 0.5% last month, dashing expectations of a 0.4% rise.It’s mainly due to a surprise (and slightly perplexing) slide in fuel sales.Monthly UK Retail Sales disappoint UK ONS: On the month, the quantity bought decreased by 0.5% compared with February 2015. #GBPBut annual UK Retail Sales growth is still strong UK ONS " increasing by 4.2% compared with March 2014." #GBPAverage store prices (including petrol stations) fell for the 9th consecutive month, falling by 3.1% compared with March 2014. The largest contribution to the year-on-year fall once again came from petrol stations which fell by 12.8% and is the 19th consecutive month of year-on-year falling prices in this store type. 9.18am BST Private sector growth across the whole eurozone has slowed a little this month, thanks to France’s latest flirtation with stagnation.Markit’s eurozone composite PMI, which tracks activity across thousands of firms, fell back to 53.3 from 54.0 last month.#Eurozone growth edges lower at start of 2nd quarter, Comp #PMI Output at 53.5 (54.0 in Mar) http://t.co/T3Z3i8VaIS http://t.co/qUzDuu5efLThe slowdown reflected weaker rates of expansion in France and Germany, which offset an acceleration of growth in the rest of the region to the fastest since August 2007.“There are signs of increased risk aversion creeping in among businesses and their customers, linked in some cases to worries about Greece, which is likely to have dampened demand.However, in the case of France, the poor performance appears to reflect a longer-term malaise which, after a promising start to the year, in fact shows few signs of lifting.” 8.56am BST Europe’s economy is ‘turning the corner’, says the European Central bank’s chief economist a few moments ago.Peter Praet is telling an audience in Berlin that:The euro area economy seems now to be turning the corner. Both the hard and soft data suggest that the activity is gathering momentum and looks set to strengthen over the course of this year. Consistent with this, all the major forecasting institutions have revised up their expectations for GDP growth in 2015 and the years ahead. We are therefore seeing the beginnings of a cyclical recovery. But it is not yet a structural one.What I mean by this is that, though the business cycle is improving, the notable decline in euro area’s potential growth rate has not been addressed, which can be imagined as the “speed limit” of the economy – the rate at which it can grow while maintaining stable inflation. International institutions currently estimate the potential growth rate to be below 1% in the euro area, compared with above 2% in the United States...The ever polite Peter Praet subtly trolling Trichet pic.twitter.com/meaHNnWaTI 8.50am BST European Commission vice-president Jyrki Katainen is in Athens today, drumming up interest in Brussels’ new €315bn investment plan. Looks like a nice day for it, too:Nice start for the #investEU roadshow in Greece. Welcome to #EUdialogues at 11. #Athens pic.twitter.com/a9N6msnKxg 8.41am BST The French and German PMI data has sent the euro falling by half a cent against the US dollar.EUR extends losses to session low after German PMI 1.066 pic.twitter.com/JCPrMCvku6French Toast German Wurst 8.37am BST Just in: Germany’s economy is also performing less well than expected this month.Activity across German services sector and manufacturing companies is still growing, but at a slower rate.Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr) comes in at 51.9 exp 53 Germany Services PMI (Apr) comes in 54.5 at exp: 55.5 8.29am BST European stock markets are inching higher in early trading, heading back to their highest levels since 2001.And a French manufacturer is leading the way. Shares in Michelin jumped almost 5%, after reporting a 5.6% rise in first-quarter revenues last night. 8.20am BST Below consensus services & manufacturing PMI surveys in France. Composite PMI still suggests economy is growing - but v slowly. 8.19am BST Bloomberg economist Maxime Sbaihi is disappointed that French factories aren’t taking advantage of cheaper oil prices and a weak currency:CHART: Ugly French PMIs in April. Manufacturing sector not benefit from lower euro, cheap oil - Not-so-fast recovery pic.twitter.com/f4o2Ip9v9zWeak French PMIs, down across the board from already below-average levels.Only bright spot in French PMIs: business expectations in services up to their highest level in 3 years; employment up for a 2nd month. 8.17am BST The slowdown in French corporate activity suggests the French economy may not grow strongly this quarter: 8.07am BST Hopes that French firms are recovering have just taken a knock, with a survey showing that the private sector slipped back to near-stagnation this month.That’s according to data firm Markit. Its monthly survey of France’s service sector has dropped to a three-month low of 50.8, near to the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction.Flash #France Services Activity Index at 3-month low of 50.8 (52.4 in Mar), Manufacturing #PMI at 2-month low of 48.4 (48.8 in Mar)“Output growth stuttered almost to a halt in April, signalling a continuation of the moribund economic environment in France.New business growth weakened despite a further marked fall in prices charged, highlighting the competitive challenge facing French companies. Service providers’ business expectations improved to a 37-month high, although it remains difficult to see much justification for this optimism and sentiment remains historically low.” 8.00am BST Some early reaction to Dombrovskis’ comments:#Greece | DOMBROVSKIS SAYS TECHNICAL TALKS WITH GREECE SHOULD BE FINISHED 'BY MAY OR SO' - RTRS ..."May or so" ..so 3 months late 7.56am BST Dombrovskis also said that Brussels still reckons Greece will avoid a Grexit:EUs Dombrovskis tells German TV: "The EU is working on the scenario that Greece will stay in the Euro" but will miss end of April deadline. 7.51am BST European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis has warned that Greece is unlikely to hit the latest deadline of a technical agreement with its creditors.“We’ve got to conduct the technical talks further and finish them perhaps in May or so,” Dombrovskis told German TV network ARD. He said it is important that all sides, including Greece, stick to their obligations. He also said: “The talks are going on. Progress is not good.” 7.46am BST The day has begun with worrying economic news from China, showing that factory activity declined at its fastest pace in a year.#China industr gauge drops to lowest in 12mths, shows China needs to do more to stabilise econ http://t.co/0vX7CJNCCF pic.twitter.com/lUbSxmBDBs 7.44am BST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Related: Most migrants crossing Mediterranean will be sent back, EU leaders to agree The latest French manufacturing and services PMI numbers are expected to show an improvement to 49.2 for manufacturing from 48.8, and to remain stable at 52.4 for services.In Germany further improvement is expected for both numbers, to 53 for manufacturing and 55.5 for services. Continue reading...
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