All the latest economic and financial news, including developments around Greece’s debt negotiations, new eurozone unemployment and inflation data, and updated UK growth statsUK growth revised higherBut GDP/head still below pre-crisis levelEurozone inflation inches up to -0.1%Euro hit by Greek deadlock 10.37am BST Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, suggests that the UK might be the fastest growing advanced economy this year, as in 2014.Here’s his take on the new growth data:“It is not surprising to see GDP being revised up for Q4 and for 2014 as a whole. A whole raft of other data points to a strong year for the British economy - including business surveys, car sales, retail sales and falling unemployment.“The other encouraging thing about these figures is that they show that growth is being led by investment and exports - both of which rose by over 5% year-on-year in the final quarter of last year. Exports of services are also growing at over 5% with export-oriented services industries at the leading edge of the UK economic recovery. That is supported by the strong growth we are seeing in professional and business services - the strongest growing sector in the UK economy last year. 10.25am BST Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale is alarmed to see Britain’s current account deficit hitting a record high, at 5.5% of GDP.He writes:Trade balance improved, but the investment income balance didn’t. The regional current account deficit with the EU (£28.3bn) is particularly ugly.It’s going to take years to turn these trend round, which are born of low investment returns in Europe vs the UK and the long-term erosion of the overall net foreign asset position of the UK. Needless to say, such a big balance of payments hole is unhelpful at a time of political uncertainty, reflective of a country living beyond its means and really scary if the UK, or global economies were to slow sharply.....Annual UK Current Account (percentage of GDP) 1948-2014. pic.twitter.com/aUABFFvG2h 10.20am BST Here’s some early expert reaction to today’s UK GDP reportReal household disposable income per head, consumption per head and GDP per head now all above where they were at last electionLooks like real net disposable income per head is 0.2% up on Q2 2010, which is good, though other real income measures a bit of a way to go.Per capita GDP, most simple proxy for living standards, still below crisis peak, but well above 2010 levels: pic.twitter.com/fa7pN2gpHa 10.16am BST Here’s a great chart showing unemployment in some of the eurozone’s larger economies over the last 25 years. EZ unemployment rates pic.twitter.com/vnfti1hhqe 10.11am BST The Eurozone’s jobless rate was 11.3% in February, the lowest since May 2012 -- but also worse than expected.Eurostat reports that unemployment across the euro area fell from 11.4% in January -- having revised up its previous estimate of 11.2%.Eurozone unemployment at 11.3% in February: Greece: 26.0% Spain: 23.2% Italy: 12.7% France: 11.6% Germany: 4.8% http://t.co/llSUmcTYDe 10.03am BST Just in: Prices across the eurozone fell by 0.1% this month, up from -0.3% in February.Once again, falling energy prices dragged down the cost of living, while service sector and food costs are rising.Services is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in February), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, compared with 0.5% in February), non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, stable compared with February) and energy (-5.8%, compared with -7.9% in February). Euro area annual inflation up to -0.1% in March 2015 - flash estimate from #Eurostat http://t.co/g8SLdY3BGS 9.59am BST Some political context:Past decade or so, UK quarterly economic growth: pic.twitter.com/tVHKegsmer 9.59am BST Nice milestone RTRS-UK 2014 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE 5.5 PCT OF GDP, LARGEST DEFICIT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948 9.58am BST Britain’s current account is not for the faint-hearted.The deficit in Britain’s trade and overseas investments has hit 5.5% of GDP, which is the largest deficit since records began in 1948. Current account deficits don't matter until they matter. And then they can matter a lot... Related: UK’s current account deficit is worrying – and Osborne has no strategy to fix it 9.51am BST One note of caution, the UK economy is still effectively smaller than before the financial crisis struck, once you adjust for population changes. 9.47am BST The Conservative Party must be cheering the news that growth was a little faster than previously thought in the last quarter:UK growth upward revision a timely boost for Cameron ahead of Thursdays #leadersdebate #GE2015 9.46am BST Britain’s service sector led the way in the last quarter, with growth of 0.9%.Industrial production rose by 0.2%, while construction output shrank by 2.2%. 9.41am BST 9.34am BST Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last three months of 2014, higher than the 0.5% previously estimated.The Office for National Statistics has also revised up its estimate for year-on-year GDP growth to 3.0%, up from 2.7%.More good news! UK GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.8% in 2014 (revised up 0.2%) #GBP 9.28am BST European stock markets are on track for their strongest quarterly growth in many years, despite Greece’s debt problems.The launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme has helped fuel a remarkable stock market rally. Germany’s DAX has surged by 23% during 2015, which we think is the biggest quarterly jump since 2003.Europe stocks climb, head for best first-quarter gain since ’98This is a sentiment driven market and when you see a record 1.14 million new A-share accounts last week you know that rampant speculation is underway.Of top 5 equity markets, only 1 is European (and it's not in eurozone) pic.twitter.com/TbiRy4v7eF http://t.co/x7WnVZIFpm pic.twitter.com/6heogPcKib 9.15am BST Hopes that Italy’s economy was healing have just taken a knock.Italy's confidence up, Italy's unemployment up as well. The economy has stopped contracting, but still losing ground vis-a-vis its EU peers 9.06am BST Just in: Germany’s unemployment rate has hit a new all-time low of 6.4%, as Europe’s largest economy continues to recover.*GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO RECORD LOW OF 6.4% IN MARCH *GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT FELL 15,000 IN MARCH; EST. 12,000 DROP 8.44am BST Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, confirms that the lack of progress over Greece’s economic reforms is hurting the euro today.He writes:Last night showed us that the Greek government and the European architects of Greece’s bailout program remain very far apart on what needs to be, and can be done for the former’s economy.On every agenda item of what the austerity and bailout program needs, Greece disagrees. The program calls for a VAT increase on the tourism sector, the Greek government has said no. Pension reform has been shot down and public sector wages will remain protected. 8.31am BST Veteran investor Mark Mobius has offered Greece some much-needed solidarity today.Mobius, who runs Templeton’s emerging markets fund, told Greek financial daily Naftemporik that:“Greece will stay in the euro zone, there is no issue.....The stock market is cheap and we are buyers.”Templeton's #MarkMobius tells the Greek press "Greece will stay in the euro zone. The stock market is cheap and we are buyers." 8.21am BST Good news for the town of Swindon this morning – Japanese automaker Honda has announced a £200m upgrade to its car plant.That means Swindon will be ready to produce the next-generation five-door Civic, calming fears over the factory’s future. Related: Honda unveils £200m upgrade to Swindon car plant 8.17am BST In the UK, Kingfisher has announced it will close around 60 B&Q stores as new CEO Véronique Laury implements her plans for the company.Laury is speaking to reporters now, saying she hopes the impact on jobs will be ‘neutral’; some workers can be redeployed, with Kingfisher also opening more Screwfix outlets. “In the short term, whilst we remain encouraged by the improving economic backdrop in the UK, we remain cautious on the outlook for France, our biggest market.”Kingfisher says doing notably better in UK than in France. But it's closing 60 stores in the UK... 8.04am BST Russia’s TASS news agency is running quotes from Alexis Tsipras, saying that Greece opposes the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. Bloomberg have picked them up too:*GREEK PM TSIPRAS SAYS COUNTRY OPPOSES RUSSIA SANCTIONS: TASS#Tsipras says #Greece can be bridge between Russia, West: TassIf the Tass report is accurate and Tsipras just broke rank with EU, might hint he sees nothing left to lose, i.e. no deal on bailout 7.58am BST The euro is likely to keep falling, thanks to Greece’s debt problems and the ECB’s new stimulus package.That’s according to Shusuke Yamada, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who told Bloomberg that:“Markets are becoming more sensitive to the Greek issue.In addition, the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing is keeping downward pressure on the euro. Fundamentals point to euro selling.” 7.45am BST The euro has fallen back this morning after Greece failed to agree a package of economic reforms with its lenders on Monday, as hoped.The single currency has fallen half a cent against the US dollar, hitting $1.078, as traders reacted to last night’s events in the Athens parliament, and the prospect of more deadlock ahead.Ready to rumble: EURUSD breaks below 1.0800. Now Euro trades at $1.0789. pic.twitter.com/3KsDLBvBH0It is true that we are seeking an honest compromise with our lenders but don’t expect an unconditional agreement from us.”ND's Samaras tells Greek govt: 'We will support you, but not on anything. If you push the country back to recession and deficits, we won’t'Samaras says Tsipras imagined he'd get money without terms but ended up getting terms without money #Greece“The brinkmanship continues as both sides continue to stare at each other over the political void. Despite Greece hurtling towards bankruptcy, an agreement continues to evade.” The euro is under renewed pressure on persistent concerns about Greece. 7.43am BST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.There’s a lot of talk at present that Europe’s economy is healing, and we’ll get a proper healthcheck today with new inflation data for this month, and the February unemployment report, both at 10am BST. Continue reading...
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