Neither Athens nor Brussels has an interest in Greece leaving the eurozone. Compromise will not solve everything but it would win valuable timeIn the next few hours and days Germany and Greece will either fail to save the European Union from a damaging crisis from which it might not fully recover, or they will agree, as now seems more likely, on one of those messy last-minute deals that are the norm in EU affairs. The hints on the evening of 17 February, in defiance of morning pessimism, were that Greece would in fact apply for an extension of its loan deal. Sensible though this is, the terms will be decisive and in any event would be only a temporary, if welcome, respite to the underlying problem. It would be foolish to assume that it represents a conclusive step back from the brink. The stakes remain too high for easy optimism. The fact remains that the shock of a Greek exit from the eurozone, and perhaps the union, would be huge. There is no provision for leaving the euro and none for leaving the union, either by secession or expulsion. The EU has brakes, which may now be applied, but it has no reverse gear.It can be argued that Greece is a small country and also a rather unusual EU member, a sort of special case. But all the members are in their different ways special cases, and while Greece is indeed a small country, it is a small country that would leave a very big hole. People forget the way in which the retreat from authoritarianism in southern Europe, in Greece, Spain and Portugal, was cemented into place by union membership. They overlook Greece’s special relationship to the European idea, a relationship which, as long as the understanding of the classical world as our predecessor and ancestor persists, will continue to deeply influence Europeans. They overlook what arrangements an excluded Greece, even if it remained an EU member, might cultivate, or have to cultivate, with Russia and China. Continue reading...
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