Thirteen surveys on voting intentions show that SYRIZA is most likely the winner of the January 25th general elections. New Party To Potami (The River) gets crucial third place. Kathimerini daily has combined 12 surveys from research companies and a study conducted by the University of Macedonia. The average between the 13 polls shows that 29.5 percent of participants will vote SYRIZA, 25.7 prefer New Democracy, 6 percent will vote To Potami (The River), 5.2 percent prefer Golden Dawn, the Greek Communist Party (KKE) gets 4.8 percent, 4 percent will vote PASOK, Independent Greeks (ANEL) get 2.6 of voters, the Socialist Democrats Movement will receive 2.2 percent of the vote, while 10.9 percent of participants are still undecided. If that crucial 10.9 percent of undecided voters would choose one of the parties, a rather arbitrary estimate of how their votes will be distributed shows the following results: SYRIZA 34.7 percent, New Democracy 30.2 percent, The River 7 percent, Golden Dawn 6.2 percent, KKE 5.6 percent, PASOK 4.7 percent, ANEL 3 percent, Socialist Democrats Movement 2.6 percent. It should be noted that about 3 percent of the total vote is the minimum required for a party to win seats in Parliament. It is hard to estimate if SYRIZA can form an autonomous government. That will depend on how many small parties will stay out of the House. The more parties out of the House, the lower the percentage of votes needed to form an autonomous government. For example, if small parties get 12 percent of the vote, the first party gets the 151 seats needed with 35.6 percent of the vote. Figures show that the percentages of Independent Greeks and the Socialist Democrats Movement will be crucial in deciding if the elections winner can form an autonomous government or not.
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