Latest UK unemployment statistics, due at 9.30am, could show another welcome drop in the jobless rate
Introduction: Jobs data in focus
Strong labour report expected, apart from pay....
Chinese GDP beats expectations
Royal Mail faces antitrust probe in France
9.14am BST
Royal Mail could be fined a maximum of £160m if French authorities conclude it broke antitrust rules, reckon analysts at Espirito Santo.
They told clients:
"French antitrust law permits a maximum fine of 10 percent of worldwide turnover,"
"This would lead to a worst-case scenario of around a £160m pound fine for Royal Mail (10 percent of GLS revenue) and about a 670 fine for TNT Express (group revenue of 6.7 billion euros)."
9.05am BST
Royal Mail isn't the only company hit by the French antitrust inquiry - shares in Dutch postal operator TNT are down 3.3% this morning.
9.03am BST
JP Morgan has hiked its forecast for China's growth this year, on the back of this morning's GDP figures:
JPMorgan revises up Chinese 2014 #GDP growth forecast to 7.3% vs. Prev. 7.2%...comes after Chinese Q2 #GDP 7.5% vs. Exp. 7.4% overnight...
8.55am BST
Nick Bubb, retail analyst, reckons Mike Ashley pulled out of the Sports Direct bonus scheme after realising he'd get too much of the pie.
If staff learned they'd been "squeezed out" by their billionaire boss, morale would suffer.
"Plenty of people thought Mike Ashley shouldnt need any more motivation, given his huge shareholding in the company, so presumably that is what will keep him going from now on...
For example, a 10p dividend would generate him income of well over £30m, which would keep the wolf from the door."
8.49am BST
Mike Ashley, the billionaire boss of Sports Direct (and owner of Newcastle United), never ceases to amaze me.
Following recent unhelpful speculation surrounding his potential allocation, he [Ashley] is determined to ensure that there is the maximum number of shares available for the eligible employees.
8.39am BST
This antitrust probe into the French postal service has been running for four years, but the City didn't realise until now that Royal Mail's French parcel delivery firm could suffer 'material' losses
Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, says the probe has put Royal Mail shares under the cosh:
While still early days, and linked to a broader investigation into the French postal industry which dates back to 2010 (Dutch group TNT has been assisting all along) this could weigh on the shares in the short term, hampering recovery of the recently lost ground.
The statement this morning that fines/ losses could be material sounds ominous but likely just cautious at such an early stage, but after all the talk of the group being sold off too cheap last October it just goes to show that even previously nationalized entities (still 30% government owned) arent whiter than white and represent risks to investors.
8.17am BST
Shares in Royal Mail have slid 1.7%, after the recently privatised postal operator's French subsidiary was accused of breaching competition rules.
Royal Mail warned the City this morning that the French competition authority, Autorité de la Concurrence, has claimed that its GLS France division has broken antitrust laws.
This is in connection with a broader investigation into alleged activities within the industry in France.
We are currently considering the notice received from the French regulator. Given the early stage of this matter, we cannot yet determine the amount or range of potential loss; however, it is possible that it could be material.
8.09am BST
Chinese GDP rises 7.5%
The data confirmed the Asian giant had stabilised after a shaky start to the year but still left the global outlook cloudy, particularly given recent weakness in the eurozone.
"The GDP figure is in line with our expectation, but the underlying momentum and recovery is still at a fragile state, especially given the property market correction," said Chang Jian, an analyst at Barclays based in Hong Kong.
7.57am BST
James Knightley of ING reckons we'll see a "strong" labour report at 9.30am, with more people joining the UK workforce.
We should get more evidence of this today with a strong labour report. We look for another 250,000+ reading for the 3M change in employment with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%.
Wages are likely to be disappointingly weak, but this reflects payment timing adjustments relating to tax changes last year* and so they should drop out of the equation in a couple of months.
Indeed, we suspect wages will be pushing back up to 2- 2.5% YoY towards the end of the year, especially with the minimum wage rising 3% in October.
We see underlying annual earnings growth actually picking up to 1.3% in May itself after relapsing to just 0.4% in April itself from 1.0% in March, 1.2% in February and 1.7% in January.
7.48am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the economy, the eurozone and business.
Today's average earnings data for May is expected to show a further drop from the 0.7% seen in April to 0.5%, widening the gap further.
MT @ekathimerini: #Greece PM Samaras due to meet with new EC President JC Juncker on Wednesday. http://t.co/XhBjuzFCms #politics #euro #ec
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