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Monday, June 9, 2014

Stock markets on brink of record high, as eurozone bonds keep rallying

New figures show Japan's economy expanded by a punchy 6.7% on an annual basis, helping Asian markets rise to their highest levels since July 2011

Eurozone bonds rally to record levels...

..analysts fear trouble ahead

Japan's growth upgraded

11.53am BST

Back in the UK, former Tesco CEO Sir Terry Leahy has weighed in on the supermarket chain's problems, saying he's "disappointed" with its current performance.

Former #Tesco chief executive Sir Terry Leahy tells @SkyIanKingLive "as a shareholder I'm very disappointed (with Tesco's performance)"

11.41am BST

Greek newspapers reckon the long-awaited cabinet reshuffle could come today, including a new finance minister to replace Yannis Stournaras (who will probably become Bank of Greece governor)

Kathimerini reports:

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras met with former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis on Friday, sparking speculation that the New Democracy MP might succeed Yannis Stournaras as finance minister.

#Greece: A cabinet reshuffle could be announced today. Today's press summary: http://t.co/Yj6U7fJXuW

11.26am BST

With Spanish government bonds now changing hands at lower interest rates than US Treasury bonds*, analysts are wondering quite how historic the ongoing rally in eurozone bond yields really is.

Well, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid has taken a stab at it -- he claims we're now seeing the lowest borrowing costs for France, Italy and Spain in a couple of hundred years.

There's something... not quite right with an 'Italian' yield going back to 1808. (via Deutsche) pic.twitter.com/jKz6eh3fEe

Unless they're using Piedmont or something for pre-Risorgimento yields

11.10am BST

Interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal today about the impact of adjusting Europe GDP data to include the Black Economy (sex workers, the drugs trade and other such shadowy activities)

It explains that EU countries are standardising and broadening their GDP measures to include areas not currently monitored -- which could actually help country's hit debt targets imposed by Brussels:

If a nation's deficit must remain below 3% of GDP, a profligate government would want the largest possible estimate of GDP. For others, a higher GDP may end up costing governments more. The 28-nation bloc uses measures of GDP to determine how much each country contributes to the EU's collective budget.

Across Europe, Finland and Sweden, hardly nations characterized by vast criminal economies, would see the biggest boosts. The main changes result not from drugs but from technical adjustments such as how to capitalize expenditures on research and development and how to account for pension programs and most types of insurance policies.

10.28am BST

Eurozone investors have not been cheered by the interest rate cuts and 400bn of new loans announced by the European Central Bank last week.

Sentix's monthly survey of investor confidence fell this month, for the second month running, despite the ECB's moves -- and Mario Draghi's promise that more measures are possible.

Investors judge the current situation to be much worse than in the previous month, and their 6-month expectations also declined.

10.22am BST

Another example of how the boom in eurozone bonds has pushed borrowing costs sharply lower...

'Italy is now more creditworthy than the US'. Quality trolling from Bank of America. pic.twitter.com/HwlhsXsdJL

10.11am BST

Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities warns that the boom in eurozone government bonds will end in tears.

He writes that banks are piling into sovereign debt rather than lose money by paying negative interest rates at the ECB, driving prices to levels that cannot be justified when measured against credit risk.

As I have written many times this year, this is not an investment strategy, but a job preservation strategy, because if these guys resist and bemoan poor credit quality, they will underperform their peers and next thing they own is a P45!

In the long run this is the road to the next crisis and ruination, but there are very few people who take a long-term view when it might cost them their job!"

10.03am BST

The gap between the interest rates on UK and German government bonds has hit a new 16-year high today.

While German Bunds have shared in the rally in eurozone debt today, UK gilts have weakened. This pushed the gap in the yields between their respective 10-year bonds to over 133 basis points (with German debt yielding just 1.35% compared to the UK's 2.68%).

9.51am BST

Eurozone government bonds are rallying this morning, as the stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank last week continue to ripple through the markets.

Irish debt has also benefitted from S&P upgrading Ireland's credit rating on Friday night. This has driven down the interest rate (yield) on its 10-year bonds to just 2.415%, a euro-era record low.

Portugal's 10-Year Yield Drops to 3.44%, Lowest Since Jan. 2006

9.40am BST

I should flag up this article from the Observer yesterday by Athens correspondent Helena Smith on Greece's Golden Dawn party, whose leaders were stripped of their immunity to prosecution last week:

9.27am BST

8.57am BST

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets, cites three reasons for stock markets inching higher:

A positive US jobs report on Friday, better Chinese trade data over the weekend and an upward revision to Japans Q1 GDP has provided a positive start to the week on what could be a quiet day on account of European holidays.

8.55am BST

Japan first quarter #GDP growth is revised up to 1.6% as recorded investment surges (7.6%) #Abenomics http://t.co/M9Z21JZFs1

8.47am BST

European stock markets have risen modestly in early trading, after Asian markets hit the highest level since July 2011.

The FTSE 100's up 13 points at 6872; dragged down a little by Lloyds, down 1.5% after announcing it is selling TSB for a substantial discount on its book value.

8.36am BST

Robert the Bruce might approve of Sports Direct's relentless attempts to give billionaire founder Mike Ashley a huge performance-related bonus, but its shareholders may not.

Who's the cat, who's the mouse? Sports Direct has third go at giving Mike Ashley a bonus after two shareholder revolts against it.

"The Board and the Remuneration Committee have responded to the feedback received from shareholders to develop a long-term share incentive scheme which not only will continue to motivate the Company's employees but which also recognises and rewards the substantial contribution made by Mike Ashley over many years. "

8.13am BST

Over to the City, and Lloyds Banking Group has priced the flotation of its TSB banking arm - at a substantial reduction to its face value.

Lloyds is going to sell 25% of TSB at between 220 pence and 290 pence each, giving it a mid-price of £1.275bn.

Priced to go: Lloyds will sell shares in TSB at 220 pence to 290 pence - at mid-point, values bank at £1,275 million. Final price June 20th

8.03am BST

The Japan Times has more details of the newly upgraded Japanese GDP figures:

Corporate capital spending, which Prime Minister Shinzo Abes Cabinet considers to be key for shoring up the economy, jumped 7.6 percent from the previous quarter, upgraded from a 4.9 percent increase in the preliminary report.

Private consumption accounting for roughly 60 percent of Japans GDP was also upwardly revised to a 2.2 percent rise from 2.1 percent growth.

"Output will surely shrink this quarter as consumers rein in spending after the consumption tax hike....However, the slowdown in domestic demand should lead to a decline in import volumes, so net exports should finally add to growth.

7.55am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the global economy, business and the eurozone.

Asia late... Sensex up 0.9% HK up 0.6% Nikkei, Taiex both end 0.3% up Shanghai up 0.2% $NIK $HSI

"It's remarkable how negative traders are feeling about this rally evidenced by the amount of clients that keep betting against it and getting short".

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READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com