Tonight kicks off Global PMI day — aka the monthly world economic Super Bowl.
For the next 24 hours, we will learn what thousands of companies around the planet are telling us about the state of the global demand, in the form of individual countries' purchasing manager's indices for their manufacturing sectors.
These are surveys published by Markit Economics that serve and serve as a reading on overall business conditions.
In a note out this evening, Société Générale explains the market's current precarious state:
Following a week of extreme volatility in emerging markets, many wonder if we are now heading for a perfect storm, with China increasingly sucked in and Europe's already low inflation falling further towards deflation. The current developments also mark a shift in markets' focus on where the need for policy change is the greatest - away from Europe where bond spreads remain resilient. We remain unconvinced, however, that the reforms to date in Europe are enough to raise growth sufficiently and put public debt trajectories on a sustainable path.
This is also implicit in recent papers discussing how to deal with bailouts and debt restructuring in Europe (see for instance the Bundesbank). Notwithstanding the current signs of a genuine cyclical upturn in Europe, we fear that the lack of growth-enhancing reform will soon again show up in disappointing nominal growth. For the week ahead we expect continued market nervousness, with China having set the mood early in the week, while European and US data later in the week should provide some stability.
In about half an hour, South Korea will be the first to report its purchasing manager's index.
Here is the full schedule, all times Eastern:
China: Official PMI: 50.5 — down from 51 in December.South Korea: HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 — up from 50.8 in December.Indonesia: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 10 p.m.India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — MidnightRussia: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — MidnightIreland: Investec Manufacturing PMI — 1 a.m.Netherlands: NEVI Manufacturing PMI — 2 a.m.Poland: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 4 a.m.Turkey: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 4 a.m.Spain: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 4:15 a.m.Czech Republic: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 4:30 a.m.Italy: Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI — 4:45 a.m.France: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 4:50 a.m.Germany: Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI — 4:55 a.m.Eurozone: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 5 a.m.Greece: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 5 a.m.UK: Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI — 5:30 a.m.Australia: Ai Group PMI — 6 a.m.Brazil: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 7 a.m.U.S.: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 9 a.m.Canada: RBC Manufacturing PMI — 9:30 a.m.Global: JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI — 11 a.m.
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