Good morning! Here's what you need to know.
- The Nikkei has surged today, gaining 1.8% and crossing the 14,000 threshold, a level not seen in a month. Europe is having a rougher go of it, with Germany's DAX down -1.2%. Italy's FTSE MIB was also lower.
- New York Fed president William Dudley will be speaking in Stamford at 12:30 pm today to discuss the economy. The last time he spoke he managed to induce an hour-long sell-off as investors picked apart his address for discrepancies with Chairman Ben Bernanke's ostensibly upbeat forecast.
- There is already chatter about a weak June jobs number Friday, based on last week's employment print from the ISM index, which at 48.7 showed its worst reading since the recovery began in 2009. The consensus is for 161,000, according to Econoday.
- U.S. auto sales data for June will be released throughout the day today. Sterne Agee expects a print of 15.4 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) versus a 14.3 million unit rate in the comparable period last year. They also note U.S. light vehicle sales have totaled between 13.9 and 15.5 million units every month since the beginning of 2012.
- The Census Bureau will release factory orders data at 10 am. Consensus is for a gain of 2%, versus prior 1%, or 0.1% not counting aerospace orders, according to Econoday. The index has been essentially flat for about a year and a half.
- Greece has been given an ultimatum to reassure its creditors that it can deliver on its end of bailout package terms. "The lenders are unhappy with progress Greece has made towards reforming its public sector, a senior euro zone official involved in the negotiations said, while another said they might suspend an inspection visit they resumed on Monday," Reuters reported.
- The New York Times' Beijing correspondent David Barboza reports Chinese banks may be using repackaged loans to prop up risky business ventures. "Analysts warn that shadow banking is helping drive the rapid growth of credit in a weakening economy, which could lead to — in the worst situation — a series of bank failures. 'This is the biggest uncertainty I’ve seen in my 18 years following the China market,' Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse, said of shadow banking. Read more >
- On a related note, the FT reported China has ordered its news outlets to stop talking about the country's cash crunch. Last month saw the Shanghai inter-bank offering rate (Shibor) unexpectedly spike as the People's Bank of China sought to impose discipline on its financial sector by starving it of cash.
- Egypt is at a standstill after President Mohamed Morsi rejected an ultimatum from the army. At the same time, the government's principal opposition refused to back the army's urgent language. Meanwhile, an Egyptian court ordered Morsy to reinstate an attorney general he fired last year.
- If you missed it, the Winklevoss brothers have founded a Bitcoin ETF. The "Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust" will track the underlying value of Bitcoins, which in turn will be determined by a Calculating Agent who will compile a Blended Bitcoin Price based on various quotes from existing Bitcoin exchanges.
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