Greece Outside In: Austerity cannot easily be contained

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Austerity cannot easily be contained – its choking effect is spreading

Even Germany has seen private-sector activity shrink, proving that austerity in the periphery is pulling down all of the eurozone

Surveys of private-sector activity in the eurozone have confirmed what many already knew: the core countries of France and Germany are being dragged down by Spain, Italy and the periphery of Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

Germany was the last domino to fall, its drop in activity during March ending four months of expansion.

France, a long-term sufferer from the austerity backwash, could already be said to have made its own contribution after a year of private-sector contraction. Figures for April show the level of contraction in France was a little less – but it was still dire.

Most economists are busy revising their earlier forecasts for recovery in Europe from the summer onwards. No longer does the situation look so benign in 2014.

And why should it? Austerity is not something that can be contained within periphery countries, even if that is seen as desirable. When Spaniards buy much of the gear you make, plunging them into poverty, whatever the rights and wrongs of it, isn't going to help your economy.

Given the level of car sales in the eurozone, the latest composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) figures for the currency area from Markit are merely a footnote. There is plenty of data showing car sales have crashed, and not just in Italy, Greece and Cyprus, where you might expect.

In France they reached a 15-year low in March, when only 165,829 vehicles left garage forecourts. In Germany, sales fell in the same month to 281,184. In Italy sales were 132,020 and Spain 72,677. The figures make the UK seem like a rosy haven of confidence with 394,806 new registrations.

Is Brussels planning a change of policy? Maybe. José Manuel Barroso, the European commission chief, says austerity is at its limits. Other leaders have hinted that austerity could be relaxed and France is not alone in pursuing a longer-term deficit-reduction strategy.

But Barroso's remarks should not be seen as indicating a change of heart. He said austerity was still "fundamentally right" and only questioned its efficacy after a decline in public support, which he said was needed for policies to work.

"While I think this policy is fundamentally right, I think it has reached its limits," he said.

As long as the "austerians" remain in control, we can look forward to many more months of surveys showing the eurozone economies in decline.

Phillip Inman