Airlines group falls back on worries about recovery and problems at Spanish subsidiary Iberia
Markets have moved higher on hopes of a solution to Spain's financial problems, but one company linked with the country has bucked the upbeat trend.
International Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways and Spain's Iberia, lost 2.4p to 155.6p after downbeat comments from an executive and an analyst sell note.
Speaking to the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce in Geneva on Monday, BA chief executive Keith Williams said the airline industry had been too optimistic about economic recovery and adding capacity beyond sustainable levels. According to Reuters, he said he had predicted in 2009 that it would be 2018 before it saw a real recovery - and events have shown that was not unduly pessimistic.
Meanwhile analyst Peter Hyde at Liberum Capital moved his recommendation from hold to sell, saying IAG trades at a premium to the sector despite a number of issues. One of these was the problem of sorting out Iberia, where a growth plan had failed to produce results:
Iberia's 2012 losses could be over €400m. The scope of restructuring (capacity cuts and brand switch) will depend on the current Iberia Express arbitration discussion in the Spanish courts and the employee's (un)willingness to change. We assume a €300m cash cost, spent in 2013.
Whilst third quarter trading volumes were relatively strong, second half forecasts need to take into account bmi and Iberia losses, Olympics' price discounting and recent large moves in currency and spot fuel prices ($870 per tonne to $1,090 per tonne).
We have reduced our IAG forecasts (2012 €116m loss from €79m profit, 2013 €232m from €635m). Analysis suggests that even if BA generates earnings of more than €500m in 2013 Iberia losses of €259m will leave IAG's 2013 earnings at only €232m, well below consensus.
This, he said, would have an effect on its finances, even before taking in account the costs of any Iberia restructuring.
On top of that, Spain's Bankis has a 12% stake in IAG which it needs to sell, which is likely to overhang the market until its disposal.
Overall the FTSE 100 finished 64.93 points higher at 5870.54, its biggest one day rise for two weeks. Despite some setbacks during the day, investors were optimistic about the eurozone crisis, with some clarification as to how a Spanish bailout could work and continuing, albeit disrupted, talks between Greece and its international creditors.
So banks and miners - the riskier end of the spectrum - led the way higher. Lloyds Banking Group ended 2.44p to 42.76, helped by reports of regulatory clearance for an asset swap with its Scottish Widows insurance subsidiary which should boost its balance sheet. Royal Bank of Scotland rose 11.9p to 280p and Barclays was 9.25p better at 246.1p.
But GKN, the automotive and aerospace group fell 7.1p to 204.8p or nearly 3.5%, after it said European markets continued to be challenging, offset by better performances in China and the US. The company said:
Macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated in recent weeks and some softening in order books is now evident, particularly regarding European automotive and industrial markets.
The fourth quarter is anticipated to show the usual seasonal improvement although the softening markets are expected to have some impact on performance.
The slump in European car sales announced earlier will have done little to lighten management's mood. Andrew Gollan of Investec kept his hold recommendation on GKN but cut his price target from 240p to 224.
Insurer Resolution dipped 0.1p to 217.9p. after it said it was in talks to sell its 30% stake in a Malysian joint venture as part of its strategy to cut costs and boost shareholder returns.
Among the mid-caps, home shopping group N Brown, the company behind brands like Simply Be and Jacamo, added 37.2p to 306.9p after it said six months profits fell 4.5% to £42m, with like for like sales up 3.7% compared with a 1.9% increase in the first 17 weeks. In the first six weeks of the second half, sales soared 10.1%,
Chip designer Imagination Technologies closed 34.9p better at 478.9p after upgrades from both Numis and Liberum Capital.
Finally Petropavlovsk, the Russia-focused miner formerly known as Peter Hambro Mining, reported a hike in gold production in its latest three montly report, pushing its shares up 13.2p to 440p. It said third quarter production was up 39% to 219,400 ounces compared to the previous three months, soothing investors who have seen missed targets in the past.
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