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Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Big Data Can Drive SDGs With Improved Accountability and Transparency: A Question of Trust

This post is co-authored by Elaine Kubik The United Nations (UN) Summit this September will coincide with the target deadline for realizing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and will likely mark the beginning of a new global framework for international development - the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Emphasizing the urgency of models of economic development that are also socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable, the SDGs will include, if adopted, 17 goals and 169 targets. Strikingly, none explicitly mention the trustworthiness of politicians, individual political prestige or legitimacy of governance. Goal 16 calls for "effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels", and Goal 17 mentions "global partnership for sustainable development", but both avoid aspects of national leadership or political legitimacy. The age of sustainable development, despite having big data including open government and open source models, still lacks goals for these types of policy inputs and tools for citizens to hold elected officials directly and consistently accountable. It is unacceptable and unsustainable that the "99%" essentially have to wait four or five years to hold elected officials accountable in any meaningful way. Will Brazilian voters have to wait for 2018's elections to hold elected-officials accountable for the colossal lack of leadership and planning for São Paulo's mega-drought? Icelanders did not wait for elections to hold their Prime-Minister accountable for the country's 2008 financial crisis: they assaulted the parliament, deposed him and convicted him. The fact that politicians and elected officials are to a very large extent assessed only during electoral cycles is antiquated and insufficient. Political leaders are reluctant to adapt a big data approach for transparency. In developing countries, politicians argue assessments like the UN's human development index, OECD's instruments for promoting development, or the principle of humanitarian intervention (R2P) reflect Western values and lack relevance, contextualization and legitimacy. In wealthier OECD countries the absence of smart and ongoing performance-based indicators to hold politicians accountable paved the way to the criminal complicity between politics and the private sector in the build up of the 2008 financial crisis. The disparity in international standards is atrocious and cannot simply be justified by principles of national sovereignty and independent jurisprudence. While in Germany two businessmen were convicted in 2011 for bribing Portuguese and Greek officials in the sell of submarines, in Portugal no one was even charged. Unacceptable! A globalized world needs common goals for political trustworthiness and legitimacy. Unfortunately the political ethical standards recently self-imposed by the Dutch Minister of Justice, Ivo Opstelten, when resigning for lack of transparency in his cabinet, are a rarity. Political prestige is an informal ordering principle in international affairs and big data can also be used to monitor and assess the extent to which it is grounded in trustworthiness. Several useful international indicators have been developed for issues like state fragility, corruption, party systems, rule of law, and freedom. Yet no such global framework exists to assess individual political prestige, trustworthiness, legitimacy and decision making while respecting cultural idiosyncrasies. The rise of big data can help build a framework, shifting away from macro-analysis and demographics to individualized targeting. Open source data along with open government data has allowed computational modeling, predictive analytics, knowledge management and data mining - forcing politicians to now face a world where they can see exactly each person they are accountable to; thus opening the door to a new wave of individual scrutiny, oversight and accountability. The theoretical and conceptual basis for metrics of individual political prestige and trustworthiness can be found in Huntington's emphasis on the primacy of political leadership for institutional development; Fukuyama's focus on recognition and prestige as engines of human history and advancement; and Sachs' proposed good governance SDG. In addition, Weber offers a first set of criteria for which politicians should be held accountable: (1) passion, a strong commitment to a cause that they seek to make come true; (2) judgment, the criteria to guide decision-making; and (3) responsibility, the value set. A related, but more specific list of accountability and trustworthiness indicators could include: a) Technical and professional experience/preparedness. This indicator assumes trustworthiness as a function of relevant professional experience built upon solid technical training. Knewton's predictive analytics and adaptive learning technology could be applied to determine knowledge and skills gaps between candidates and the job the cabinets they are running for require. b) Political maturity/skills. This indicator assumes trustworthiness as a function of political experience and/or active civic participation. Statistical predictions and scientific principles used by Next Big Sound combined with a framework for emotional intelligence could be used to further advance our understanding of the likeliness of political skills, prestige and trustworthiness. c) Public interest, transparency and patriotism. This indicator assumes trustworthiness as a function of one's deep commitment with the wellbeing of his/her community and/or nation, and it implies that prestige is not compatible with conflicting personal or private interests. It is actually no surprise that Google has started to lead a path for political transparency, with their Civic Information API and resulting projects like Map Your Representatives to give insight into what causes representatives are truly acting on. A new "risk of impartiality/impediment" index for assessment of potential conflict of interests or an individualized "risk of corruption" index could be the next steps forward. d) Commitment to the job and mandate. This indicator assumes trustworthiness as a function of how well elected officials perform their role; how much new legislation s/he helps advance; and how much s/he helps identify problems and design and implement new and better programs. The tracking implemented by the Sun Light Foundation updates citizens on bills, issues and even politicians' decisions could be expanded internationally and structured for comparative purposes within each country. e) Consistency/coherence. This indicator assumes trustworthiness also as a function of how coherent, consistent and comprehensive a politician's line of action is. As exemplified by the Pulitzer winner Politifact new metrics such as a "Contradiction index" or a "Promise-keeping index" vis-à-vis individual's discourse, programs, actions and decisions made, are perfectly feasible. f) Leadership/Charisma. This indicator assumes trustworthiness as a function of a personal profile and attitude capable of inspiring trust, and mobilizing attention and resources. Open source social networks have enabled adaptive learning tools to define online sentiment. The same tools can be used to examine candidate discussions and it's effectiveness in connecting with their audience. Real time crowdsourcing by citizens expressing life (un)satisfaction in their communities, similarly to what ingenious "digital humanitarians" do to support relief efforts worldwide, could help develop a collective and shared perspective of one's commitment to his/her political mandate and jurisdiction. g) Resiliency/Conviction. This indicator assumes trustworthiness also as a function of how much the politician is capable of controlling psychological pressure, exhaustion, erosion of personal image, confrontation with media and public opinion. Discourse analysis and public polls, such the ones also developed by Popstar, are examples of good and useful metrics that could be expanded internationally. None of these indicators are straightforward, almost all are subjective, dispersed in the WWW, and some may be too simple to measure a very complex phenomenon. Despite some OpenGov efforts, proprietary databases needed for these analyses are expensive, are often controlled by private platforms, and the equipment and expertise required to effectively use this type of data is not readily available. These are certainly challenges that need to be overcome if new information and communication technologies are to help citizens to appoint better and trustworthy decision-makers to office. In an ever globalized and interconnected world, political prestige and trustworthiness are attributes earned, obtained or denied in collective contexts. Big data, open sources and technological integration need to enable how the collective oversees and holds their representatives effectively accountable. Elaine Kubik is a MPA-Development Practice candidate at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs. She has a background in marketing and digital technology and is now applying it to policy and development. Follow her progress @elainekubik


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Merkel expected to show little mercy in showdown with Greek PM

German chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to show little mercy today in her showdown with Greek prime minister Alexis Trispras, whose government has stated it cannot meet imminent debt payments without more help from its international bailout creditors.


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Tsipras, Merkel urge end to ugly eurozone 'stereotypes'

Berlin (AFP) - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday urged an end to the vicious "stereotypes" and name-calling that have threatened to rip the eurozone apart.After weeks of bitter acrimony between the new radical-left government in debt-mired Greece and the eurozone's effective paymaster, Germany, both leaders were at pains to stress their common ground on the debt crisis.Tspiras, making his first visit to the German capital since taking office in January, told reporters "neither are the Greeks lazy louts nor are the Germans to blame for Greece's ills -- we have to work hard to overcome these stereotypes."Merkel said she agreed that Europe must "surmount these types of stereotypes" about good and bad eurozone members to ensure the future of the currency."We both have a vested interest in building cooperation based on trust," Merkel, 60, said.Tspiras, 40, praised the German leader, who has been caricatured as a bloodthirsty Nazi in Greece for her insistence on swingeing reforms, as a straight-shooter."Ms Merkel listens and wants to make progress in discussions," he said.But entrenched differences surfaced during the 35-minute press conference between an initial round of talks and a working dinner at Merkel's imposing glass-and-steel chancellery.Tsipras said the budget cuts and structural reforms demanded over the last five years in exchange for two bailout programmes had not been a "success story" but rather brought his country to its knees.The austerity path Merkel has championed has had "horrible effects" including mass unemployment, widespread poverty and social unrest in Greece."A new political mix must be found," he insisted while pledging more decisive action than his predecessors on fighting corruption and tax evasion.Merkel repeated her frequent refrain that the only sustainable solution to the debt crisis is fiscal discipline."What is crucial is that the economic fundamentals are there. What types of reforms are implemented can be discussed with the institutions," she said, referring to what was formerly called the "troika" of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. She dismissed the frequent portrayal of the Greek debt crisis as a zero-sum game between Berlin and Athens."Germany is not the institution that decides whether the reform programme is correct or sufficient," she said. But she added: "We want a Greece that is economically strong, we want growth in Greece and -- this is key -- we want to reduce the very high unemployment among the young."- 'A moral issue' -As tensions have flared, painful historical memories have resurfaced, with Tsipras's government reviving reparation claims for the Nazi occupation of Greece in World War II.In his opening statement, Tsipras stressed that Greece did not see the case as closed, insisting that it was a "moral issue" that must still be resolved. But he distanced himself from calls in Athens for the Greek government to seize German property to settle wartime claims, such as the Goethe Institute cultural centre."You can forget that -- that doesn't apply," he said, adding "today's Germany has nothing to do with the Germany of the Third Reich which spilled so much blood". Merkel said she saw the issue of reparations as "politically and legally resolved" but said Germans were aware "of the atrocities we committed" and took their responsibility for the crimes of the Nazis "very, very seriously".Greece's creditors agreed in February to extend its 240-billion euro ($260-billion) bailout by four months in exchange for promises of further reforms.At an EU summit last week, Athens lobbied Brussels to release vital funds left in the bailout package to help it make payments to creditors in the coming days, and avoid bankruptcy and a possible sudden exit from the euro.Instead, the EU offered two billion euros in unused development funds to Greece after Tsipras vowed to clarify reform pledges demanded by the country's creditors. But that money will not go into government coffers.Tsipras's spokesman revealed Monday that the prime minister sent Merkel a letter on March 15 warning it would be impossible to service his country's crushing debt without fresh EU cash.The Greek leader said later that he had not come to Berlin hat in hand but rather wanted to "build a common foundation" for dialogue between the two countries."It is better to talk to each other and not about each other," he said.Join the conversation about this story »


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Monday, March 23, 2015

Bloomberg’s front page “Merkel’s warm welcome to Tsipras”

The report cites Alexis Tsipras statement that “Greece and Germany should be able to understand each other better”


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Smiles Belie Tough Talks As Greek PM Tsipras Visits Berlin

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras review an honour guard during a welcoming ceremony at the Chancellery ...


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Greek PM Tsipras to visit Germany's Holocaust memorial

BERLIN (Reuters) - Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will visit Germany's Holocaust memorial on Tuesday on the second day of his visit to the country that his radical leftist government has demanded pay World War Two reparations, his office said on Monday.


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Germany isn't to blame for Greece's problems: Tsipras

Greece's firebrand communist leader struck a consolatory note on Monday, saying it was wrong to blame foreigners for the country's problems, and ...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.cnbc.com