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Showing posts with label g20. Show all posts
Showing posts with label g20. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Eurozone crisis live: Merkel to address German parliament

German chancellor has reportedly ruled out eurobonds for 'as long as I live'
European stock markets open higher, Spanish and Italian yields flat

8.10am: European stock markets have opened higher:

• The FTSE 100 index in London is up 25 points at 5472, a 0.5% gain
• Germany's Dax and France's CAC have both risen 0.4%
• Spain's Ibex has climbed 0.8%
• Italy's FTSE MiB is up 0.7%

Spanish and Italian ten-year government bond yields are flat at 6.885% and 6.19% respectively.

7.53am: Ian Traynor, our Europe editor, reports ahead of today's Merkel-Hollande meeting in Paris:

Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Paris on Wednesday to try to strike a Franco-German deal with President François Hollande amid deep-seated differences at what has been described as Europe's defining moment.

With the two key EU countries split for the first time in 30 months of single currency and sovereign debt crisis, José Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission laid bare the high stakes in play at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday as well as the high frictions between Germany and France.

Merkel's first visit to the Élysée Palace under its new occupant has been hastily arranged and comes on the eve of what is being billed as a crucial Brussels summit which, apart from the immediate financial dilemmas, is to wrestle with a radical blueprint aimed at turning the 17 countries of the eurozone into a fully-fledged political federation within a decade.

"We must articulate the vision of where Europe must go, and a concrete path for how to get there," warned Barroso. But he was unsure "whether the urgency of this is fully understood in all the capitals of the EU".

Since his election last month, France's socialist leader has quickly emerged as the most formidable challenger to German formulas for Europe's salvation after two years of Berlin largely dictating the EU response to the crisis.

Merkel is feeling bruised, having just withstood two unusual attempts by fellow leaders to ambush her and get Berlin to hand over its credit cards to write off what they see as other countries' profligacy.

In Mexico last week at the G20 and then in Rome at two bad-tempered summits in recent days, the Americans and the British – in cahoots with the leaders of France, Spain and Italy – sought to press Merkel into bankrolling fiscal stimulus and bank recapitalisation policies that would cut the vulnerable eurozone countries' cost of borrowing.

The pressure on Merkel may have backfired and reinforced German resistance to the ideas. The view in Berlin is that Hollande will have to back down amid the relative weakness of the French economy.

7.51am: EU president Herman Van Rompuy published the leaked report for a path towards deeper economic and monetary union yesterday. Elisabeth Afseth, fixed income analyst at Investec, says:


The timeframe for achieving this is a decade, which is ambitious given the lack of agreement after well over two years of dealing with the crisis. Van Rompuy (in collaboration with ECB President Mario Draghi, EU Commission President Jose Barroso and the leader of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker), sets out broad plans for further integration of fiscal policy as well as banking regulation, maintaining national decision making, but with the overriding control moving to the EU level.

It proposes upper limits on national budgets (in line with the fiscal compact) and moving towards joint bond issuance. The plan will be discussed at the European leaders' summit tomorrow and Friday, I expect there might be some general agreement in the direction of need for further integration, but the plan includes a lot of measures that Germany has rejected firmly in the recent past and it is unlikely it will change its tone much.

7.21am: Good morning and welcome back to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis and world economy.

Expectations for the EU summit, which starts tomorrow, are getting lower by the day.

Angela Merkel's comments today when she speaks to the German parliament will be closely scrutinised, after she reportedly ruled out the idea of jointly guaranteed eurozone debt for "as long as I live" at a closed meeting with her coalition partners yesterday. Later today the chancellor is due to meet French president François Hollande, her first visit to the Élysée Palace since the Socialist leader was elected.

Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research said:

If she really did say that then it is difficult to see how this week's summit can be anything other than a disaster and it may well be that the eurozone is heading into the abyss. Meanwhile it was reported that Mario Monti had threatened to resign unless common euro bonds were introduced, although this was denied by a spokesperson for the PM. Interesting that as far as I am aware Ms Merkel's comments have not been denied…

Italian and Spanish borrowing costs surged at auctions yesterday, when the Italian government bought €2bn of bonds from its oldest bank, Monte di Paschi, in an attempt to shore up its capital cushion.


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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

François Hollande and Angela Merkel meet in Paris with high stakes at play

Franco-German discussions need to build 'a concrete path' for Europe, says José Manuel Barroso

Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Paris on Wednesday to try to strike a Franco-German deal with President François Hollande amid deep-seated differences at what has been described as Europe's defining moment.

With the two key EU countries split for the first time in 30 months of single currency and sovereign debt crisis, José Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission laid bare the high stakes in play at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday as well as the high frictions between Germany and France.

Merkel's first visit to the Élysée Palace under its new occupant has been hastily arranged and comes on the eve of what is being billed as a crucial Brussels summit which, apart from the immediate financial dilemmas, is to wrestle with a radical blueprint aimed at turning the 17 countries of the eurozone into a fully-fledged political federation within a decade.

"We must articulate the vision of where Europe must go, and a concrete path for how to get there," warned Barroso. But he was unsure "whether the urgency of this is fully understood in all the capitals of the EU".

Since his election last month, France's socialist leader has quickly emerged as the most formidable challenger to German formulas for Europe's salvation after two years of Berlin largely dictating the EU response to the crisis.

Merkel is feeling bruised, having just withstood two unusual attempts by fellow leaders to ambush her and get Berlin to hand over its credit cards to write off what they see as other countries' profligacy.

In Mexico last week at the G20 and then in Rome at two bad-tempered summits in recent days, the Americans and the British – in cahoots with the leaders of France, Spain and Italy – sought to press Merkel into bankrolling fiscal stimulus and bank recapitalisation policies that would cut the vulnerable eurozone countries' cost of borrowing.

"It was all wishful thinking or a political game," said a senior EU official of the ambush attempts. "There are substantial economic and political interests at play. Governments are spinning in their respective interests."

The pressure on Merkel may have backfired and reinforced German resistance to the ideas. The view in Berlin is that Hollande will have to back down amid the relative weakness of the French economy.

The blueprint unveiled on Tuesday calls for a eurozone political federation to be built over a decade entailing four stages. The details are thin and are to be fleshed out by the end of the year by the heads of four of the main European institutions, but the proposals – a response to the Greek drama that erupted 30 months ago and which has engulfed the EU into its most perilous crisis ever – mark the most ambitious European plan since agreement on the single currency was reached at Maastricht 20 years ago.

Thursday marks the start of what will be a long, exhausting, and bruising battle essentially pitting German-led integrationist pressure against French-led protection of sovereign authority and reluctance to cede immense powers over budgets and tax-and-spend policies to Brussels and a new eurozone finance ministry, proposals that also raise fundamental questions about democratic legitimacy in the EU.

To be realised, the "political union" would require a major legal overhaul, reopening EU treaties, endless quarrels, probably a new German constitution and perhaps a referendum in Britain and its departure from the EU.

"These decisions on deeper economic, financial and fiscal integration imply major changes to the way our citizens are governed and to the way their taxes are spent," said Barroso. "This crisis is the biggest threat to all that we have achieved through European construction over the last 60 years… A big leap forward is now needed."

The proposals, likely to expose fundamental splits over Europe's future, will do little to resolve the immediate debt and currency crisis. The hope is that the medium-term master plan will placate the financial markets by demonstrating political resolve to defend the currency at all costs. The risk is that the leaders will appear so divided that the markets might step up their probing of the weaker bits of the eurozone, notably Spain and Italy.

Without a Franco-German accord, the prospects of a damaging summit in Brussels are high. Last week Hollande issued policy proposals for the summit, a growth and jobs pact whose details are anathema to Berlin – the issue of short-term shared eurozone debt leading to full pooled debt, common eurozone guarantees for bank deposits, protectionist measures favouring European manufacturers and bidders for public contracts over outsiders as well as direct eurozone recapitalisation of dodgy banks without increasing national debt levels.

The Germans feel under pressure, but Merkel will court big trouble at home if she yields. A pro-European commentator in Der Spiegel this week suggested she should sacrifice her political career to save Europe and the currency.

There is little chance of that happening. But the German elite is deeply worried about Hollande's France, because of the impact it could have on the German economy's prospects battling the emerging might of China, India or Brazil.

Berlin's angst is that Europe can only be saved and a successful Europe re-established if the two core countries are in harness, that it cannot bear the burden alone, and that if the Franco-German dynamic dissipates, the German economy will be among the biggest victims of failure.

Berlin points to the widening gap in employment costs between Germany and France; a youth unemployment rate in France triple that of Germany; Hollande's first move in reducing the retirement age and France's overall loss of competitiveness over the past decade. It fears being dragged down as a result. The cautious hope is that Hollande will turn out or be forced to be France's Gerhard Schröder, the ex-German chancellor and, like Hollande, a social democrat who executed the economic, welfare, and structural reforms a decade ago that put Germany in its current strong shape.

Hollande heads a socialist party, however, that is a lot less "modernised" than Schröder's SPD or the Labour Party under Blair and which is eternally split over Europe. Hollande's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, spearheaded the No campaign in the French referendum that sunk the European constitution in 2005.

And the crisis is throwing into sharp relief the basic divisions, particularly on the grand plan being fought over . A crisis that started financially on the EU's periphery, in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, has now shifted politically to the union's heart, the Berlin-Paris axis.

France may baulk at the blueprint being tabled, being deeply reluctant to surrender so much sovereign power to new eurozone authorities, while Germany will only accept the liability for others being thrust on it if the powers are federalised.

A senior EU diplomat intimately involved in the Franco-German dynamic for 20 years says, however, that Merkel and Hollande are condemned to forging a modus operandi and that the stakes are too big.

"Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand were dreadful at the start. They hated each other. Gerhard Schröder and Jacques Chirac was the lowest I ever saw. It's always like this with France and Germany," he said.

"They always represent different positions and then they find a compromise that everyone else agrees with except the UK."


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Sunday, June 24, 2012

Hollande's pro-growth rhetoric won over France. But what about Merkel? | Jonathan Fenby

François Hollande must now find if his rhetoric can translate into a left-leaning, pro-growth agenda for the eurozone

François Hollande has been a busy man since he won the French presidency on 6 May. But he still has all to play for on the most important field – Europe – particularly after the lack of progress at his summit with the leaders of Germany, Italy and Spain in Rome on Friday.

In the past six weeks "Mr Normal" has constituted a new government, seen his Socialist party win an overall majority in legislative elections to add to its already formidable grasp on regional decision-making, journeyed to the United States to meet President Obama and join a Nato summit, gone to Mexico for the G20 meeting, and met an array of European leaders to discuss the euro crisis. All the while he has been putting through the first planks of his campaign promises, including the lowering of the pension age to 60 for some workers, a cap on earnings of bosses of state companies, and the reduction of ministerial salaries as he tries to make the fifth republic a more down-to-earth ruling system to which ordinary people can relate.

But all this is mere preamble to the new president's main task – the effort to combine renewed growth with cuts in the government deficit as the spearhead of a new European approach that will stress economic expansion rather than austerity. This week, starting with the German-French-Italian-Spanish summit in Rome, will test whether his rhetoric can be translated into a left-leaning, pro-growth agenda for the eurozone to pull it out of its seemingly endless crisis.

The new Socialist administration in Paris believes that Hollande's policies will muster a sufficient head of steam to overcome German reservations at the European summit in Brussels at the end of this month. It hails any mention of the word "growth" by leaders in other EU countries as a sign that Paris has the wind in its sails. At last, a government of the left claims to have come up with an answer to the drawn-out eurozone crisis that goes beyond belt tightening.

That sounds very attractive, especially given the way that the austerity preached from Berlin offers a bleak future for many European nations. But the room for hope looks considerably less than optimists in Paris might believe. We are not back in the heady opening months of the previous Socialist president, François Mitterrand, who declared in 1981 that there was nothing wrong with dreaming. But, as with Mitterrand, reality has a nasty way of intruding on even the most pleasant of reveries.

The decision at the Rome summit to launch a €130bn growth package consisted largely of the re-bottling of old funds in supposedly new bottles, including use of unspent budget structural funds. The post-summit press conference showed up once more the divergence between Hollande and Angela Merkel. Financial markets will not be impressed given the continuing tide of bad news.

Though coming off the heights reached last week, Spain's medium-term borrowing reached its highest level since the euro was introduced at the beginning of this century, and an audit showed that the country's banks would need up to €62bn in additional capital to meet adverse conditions. The unelected domestic political honeymoon of Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, is over as tax increases and reductions in pensions fuel recession, and both trade unions and business are unhappy at his labour sector reforms. This makes it harder for him to push through changes while calls mount for more positive European policies to help Italy through its difficulties; and Silvio Berlusconi lobbed in a political grenade by saying that an Italian exit from the eurozone was "not blasphemy" and might not hurt the country's economy.

Above all, Merkel is resisting the growing chorus of calls for her to relax her resistance to measures that could ease the pressure on other countries to reduce their debts, and her limitation of Germany's readiness to commit itself further to bailout packages. She and Hollande have avoided an outright confrontation so far but it is difficult to see a collision being put off much further unless one or other cedes ground. Facing a federal election next year, Merkel will not wish to be seen by a suspicious German electorate as a lady ready for turning; Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, took the occasion of the Rome summit to warn Greece that it must fulfil the conditions of its aid programme with no room for manoeuvre on the target of reducing debt to 120% of GDP by 2020.

As Simon Tilford notes in a report for the Centre for European Reform, Germany seems to have a sense of invulnerability amid the storms around it. "For many Germans, including many senior policymakers, the crisis seems to be someone else's problem," Tilford writes. "Merkel's obduracy is widely credited with striking a blow for Germany's national interests … This is puzzling, because Germany is much more vulnerable than German policymakers appear to believe. And Germany's strategy for dealing with the crisis is maximising, not minimising, the risks to the country's economic and political interests."

He is right, but national psychologies are difficult to shake even if Merkel was persuaded of the need to do so. Equally, with the wind of his double election victories behind him, the French leader is unlikely to be the first to blink. He knows that he courts domestic disillusion if he does so. He is the first president of the fifth republic who has inherited a political party rather than forming one in his own image, and that comes with a price in a country where many on the left (not to mention the Front National) are wary of a Europe they see as run by market-friendly bureaucrats ready to act in contravention of the democratic verdict of voters.

The trouble is that more papering over of the euro-cracks is not going to pass muster, not only with markets but also with jaundiced citizens who are realising the extent to which their leaders have failed to get to grips with the ongoing crisis. Hollande's big pro-growth story may have appeared a panacea but his policy of fiscal pumping rather than structural reform will not please the Germans and offers no longer-term solution to France's lack of competitiveness – highlighted by news that Air France-KLM (in which the state has a 16% stake) is to cut 5,000 jobs in France after losing €597m in the first quarter of this year, a harbinger of more bad tidings in a country with a 10% unemployment rate. French unions warn that 45,000 jobs in all may go in all in sectors such as steel, telecoms and automobiles.

Hollande may have won office as the prophet of expansion but his promises involve apparently irreconcilable aims. Adding to the 56% of GDP already accounted for by state spending, his pledges in areas such as education will unbalance the economy further. Hitting this year's state deficit target of 4.5% of GDP will need additional savings of €10bn, while achieving the 3% goal for 2013 will require an extra €25bn, and at a time of weak growth. Simply soaking the rich through higher taxes will not be enough. Something else will have to give.

On the European front, the Franco-German entente on which the present European framework – and the euro – was built has changed in nature as Berlin has become a political power as well as the continent's economic motor. The heritage of leadership from Paris handed down by Charles de Gaulle has evaporated. But the election of Hollande was, in part, a refusal by France's voters to submit to policies dictated from across the Rhine – even if German funding will be needed for the eurozone public works programme the new president wants, and even if the strong nationalist vote in both France's elections bodes ill for the sovereignty-surrendering fiscal union the eurozone needs to function efficiently.

Germany's policies may be what Europe should need for its long-term health, but the crisis management on offer is far more short-term. Mr Normal has to play with the hand he dealt himself, and the backing he has been receiving may end up by making Germany all the more determined to stick to its guns; the more isolated Merkel is, the more she may need to prove her determination to the electorate. The Hollande saga is, indeed, only just beginning, and its outcome is far less certain than the impressive electoral margin of victory he and his party racked up might suggest.

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Friday, June 22, 2012

The European fiscal treaty is an enemy to democracy | Sahra Wagenknecht

Because no elected government would stand a chance of revoking this policy, I will vote against the ratification

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has been key in deciding the course of the European crisis policy. The fiscal treaty and the European stability mechanism (ESM) are an attempt to dictate this policy indefinitely to the countries in Europe. This strategy, however, ignores two fundamental facts. First, it was only after the worldwide financial crisis in 2008 that the state debts started rising. They did so because of a global recession and the bank rescue packages. It is not true that European countries had been living beyond their means. Second, Merkel's crisis policy ignores the fact that high spending cuts have a negative impact on economic growth.

At worst, this kind of policy leads to a recession. In Greece this policy has been carried to extremes. In recent years the Greek economy has slumped by 20%. This usually happens only in wartime. Youth unemployment in Greece, like in Spain, now runs as high as 50%. The result is a steep decline in tax revenues which leads to a mounting increase of the Greek state debt despite all spending cuts. This policy, in the meantime, has driven the entire eurozone into a recession. The EU commission predicts negative growth for 2012.

Enforcing the fiscal treaty in a situation like this would coerce the whole of Europe into budget cuts for decades and by so doing would permanently strangle economic growth. No country in the eurozone – with the exception of Finland and Estonia – would have fulfilled the criteria of the fiscal treaty in 2011. This means that 98% of the economy and the population in the eurozone would have been subjected to quasi-automatic budget cuts in 2012, with Brussels controlling their enforcement. The fiscal treaty is an enemy to democracy because no elected government would stand a chance of revoking this policy that has been dictated. The international treaty does not allow for unilateral termination. Infringements would lead to court proceedings before the European court and eventually to penalty payments for the country in question. The fiscal treaty is a scandalous deprivation of the will of the population.

It is odd that it is Germany of all governments that is the driving force behind this madness. After all, it was Germany that at the beginning of the 1930s experienced first-hand how a policy of that kind led our country at first and then the entire world into the catastrophe. A policy lacking all solidarity is also incomprehensible because it is German capital which by means of an aggressive export policy has profited way above average from the common currency ever since it came into force. This is why it is particularly important that Merkel is reminded of her destructive role at every possible occasion. Many by now regard the developments in Europe as a danger for the world economy. The statements of the heads of government at the G20 summit showed this clearly. It is even worse, of course, that this policy divides Europe and destroys the future of the people.

In order to break the vicious circle it is necessary to stop the fiscal treaty and the policy of budget cuts coming along with it. Otherwise all decisions to add growth impulses can only be regarded as fig leaves. Sound public finances cannot be brought about by a fiscal treaty that strangles economic growth and tax revenues. State budgets can only be restored by increasing state income by means of a strict redistribution of wealth. High mounting debts and unevenly spread wealth are two sides of the same problem. It can be resolved by adequately taxing millionaires and high profits. With the fiscal treaty, an alternative policy cannot be enforced for a long time to come, because the treaty explicitly states that budget consolidation through spending cuts is paramount.

This is the reason I am going to vote against the ratification of the fiscal treaty and the permanent rescue scheme in the German Bundestag, together with my parliamentary group Die Linke (The Left). Should the bill pass, which unfortunately is likely because the other opposition parties in the German parliament have yielded their position, we are going to take legal action and file suit against the treaties before the German constitutional court.

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Mitt Romney's Greek chorus of Republican ideologues | Jason Farago

The GOP refrain has Obama turning the US into debt-wracked Greece – and never mind that their Irish poster-child bombed

As he left the G20 summit on Tuesday, President Obama told reporters he thought the ongoing European crisis "will potentially have some impact on the election". Well, no kidding.

The meltdown of the eurozone, simultaneously the most alarming and the most boring story of our times, remains the great unknown of this American presidential race. The formation of a new Greek government this week may delay the country's exit from the euro, but a controlled ejection this summer or autumn will rattle the US all the same. It now seems that Greece will go gently and not Lehman-style, at least. But nobody can predict what comes after – there and especially here.

And yet, however bad things get later this year, Europe is already weighing the president down. "I do not want to become Europe," Mitt Romney told a crowd in Frankenmuth, Michigan on Tuesday. "Look across the pond," he warned, and tremble at the sky-high unemployment. Frankenmuth, I have to mention, was a frankly weird place to say this, since the town is better known as "Little Bavaria" – visitors gawp at bogus Franconian houses and lederhosen-clad waiters serve weisswurst and imported beer. Maybe he was trying to make a point about German frugality.

But no matter: Romney, for well on a year now, has been insisting that under the president's leadership the US faces sclerotic European decline. Nothing new among GOP candidates, of course. But now that Europe really is in serious trouble, the line sticks a lot better.

Last week, Romney dismissed Obama's economic record and said he wasn't leading the country forward, but "forward on the way to Greece". This Greece bit is rather a refrain in the party now. "Unfortunately, we're on the road to Greece," warned Kelly Ayotte, the New Hampshire senator, at a rally with Romney last week. Obama has "put our country on the road to Greece", according to Connie Mack, the Florida representative and Senate nominee. "The president's budget isn't a blueprint for America; it's a road map to Greece," in the words of Washington Representative (and veepstakes dark horse) Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Stay on message, people!

Naturally, the "road to Greece" that these Republicans are cautioning against does not pass by a poorly designed currency union, insufficient tax collection, or political clientelism. To listen to these conservatives, Europe, and Greece in particular, are in freefall because of one thing only: government spending. Any state expenditure at all seems to be inadmissible – these new Republicans now deem it sensible to oppose paychecks for firefighters and teachers – and the debt Greece is now saddled with proves that government can never be trusted.

But as should be painfully clear by now, the eurozone is locked in a balance of payments crisis; debt in and of itself is not to blame. Greece and Portugal may have run large deficits during the good years, but so did Germany. Spain, which, with each passing week, looks more like the euro's final battleground, was running a surplus back in the day.

And anyone paying attention to Europe knows that there is zero correlation between the size of the state and the propensity for crisis. Austria and Finland, which are both eurozone members, rank near the top of the OECD for public spending and have remained strong during the crisis. Which eurozone state had the lowest public spending per capita? That would be Ireland: wrecked, miserable Ireland, junk-bond Ireland, which you may remember as the dream republic of every Cato Foundation fellow and drown-government-in-the-bathtub sandbagger.

Ireland, more than Greece, is the most telling case – because it reveals just how unstintingly the American right is committed to destroying the public sector, and how indifferent it is to evidence. In the boom years, as Ireland was transformed from one of the poorest European nations to one of the richest, US conservatives couldn't get enough of the place. Ireland was proof that trickle-down economics worked, the thinktanks enthused: keep taxes minimal and government tiny, and everyone gets rich! (And forgive me, but I cannot resist a nod to Thomas Friedman, the soi-disant center's favorite columnist, for telling German politicians that the Irish model was their only hope. The headline was "Follow the Leapin' Leprechaun".)

By the top of the boom, the Ireland worship had hit a fever pitch. John McCain, during his first debate against Obama, said the US had to cut taxes to Irish levels. He also mused that the first foreign trip of his blessedly unrealized presidency would be to Ireland, which Vice-President Palin might have heard of once from reading the back of the Lucky Charms box at breakfast. Romney himself, in 2008, enthused that "jobs have been flowing into Ireland" and that the US was in trouble because "money is all going to government and taxes."

We now know, of course, that the Celtic Tiger was, in fact, predicated on a massive property bubble, assisted by absurdly lax regulation, inactive government, and a healthy dose of corruption. Ireland now has zero economic growth; youth unemployment stands at 30%. Did this give any of the erstwhile Ireland boosters pause? On the contrary: apparently, Ireland was no free-market paradise at all! One Cato fellow, having praised Ireland for its Reaganite policies in the good times, suddenly concluded that the government was "spending like drunken sailors". The country that the right celebrated for its low taxes mutated into a redistributive hellhole. And as for the continued failure of the brutal austerity measures Ireland has since put into place – measures that look rather like the Republican economic plan here – the contortions are too ludicrous to summarize.

By now, really, it no longer comes as a surprise that these ideologues will never waver in their conviction that no taxes and nearly no state are the solution to every problem. In good times and in bad, the prescription is the same. All conflicting evidence is dismissed; any shred of support (Latvia!) is amplified a thousand fold.

But they can get away with it, still, because who's to stop them? Four whole years after the most ruinous disaster of laissez-faire capitalism most Americans have ever lived through, we still do not have a Democratic party willing to defend the economic role of government with a full voice. Until they do, we will be stuck in this trough of a Lesser Depression. And in the meantime, we must live in fear of the Romney economy, of American unfairness and European growth.


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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Markets seek direction in wake of G20 pledge, Greek coalition


Globe and Mail

Markets seek direction in wake of G20 pledge, Greek coalition
Globe and Mail
European stocks edge higher on commitment to lower euro zone borrowing costs.

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Eurozone crisis live: Confusion over G20 bid to cut borrowing costs

Reporters briefed that European leaders poised to allow €750bn bailout fund to buy up bonds of crisis-hit governments

8.42am: Talking about Greece, ekathimerini.com is reporting that the democratic left has agreed to join the coalition but won't join the cabinet. We'll have more from Athens later. The news site reports:

The central committee of Democratic Left, which is set to be the junior partner in a three-party coalition government, approved in the early hours of Wednesday a proposal for the leftists to support the new administration but not provide any members for its cabinet.

The meeting ended at 1.30 a.m. after 70 percent of members approved party leader Fotis Kouvelis's proposal that Democratic Left remain out of the cabinet. The party may ask for some figures who are ideologically aligned with Democratic Left, although not members, to join the government.

8.40am: A nice literary allusion that could be applied to the G20, from the managing director of Greek market research company TNS ICAP.

8.28am: Labour leader Ed Miliband has put out his reaction to the G20 plans, or lack of them, for the eurozone.

He is due to speak at the awards for consumer group Which? later, where he'll say that the summit had produced "no progress" on Europe or global employment and growth.

"This G20 summit should have marked a decisive shift towards jobs and growth, which is vital if we are to get deficits down. Unfortunately this has not happened because too many governments, our own included, seem to think more of the same is the answer.

"The result is a summit that appears to offer no progress for Europe and no global plan for jobs and growth. It is a summit of division when the world needs unity. And a summit of inaction when people, in Britain and across the world, are crying out for action."

8.24am: In the debt markets, yields on Spanish 10-year government bonds - essentially the interest rate - have dropped below 7%. They are currently trading at 6.95%. The yield on Italian 10-year debt has dipped below 6% and is currently at 5.84%.

8.20am: Quick look at the markets, which are struggling for direction.

UK FTSE 100: down 0.07%, or 4 points, at 5582
Germany DAX: flat
France CAC 40: up 0.1%
Spain IBEX: up 0.2%
Italy FTSE MIB: up 0.1%

8.04am: The Bank of England publishes minutes from their last meeting this morning, which should shine a light on the debate over whether to introduce more quantitative easing.

Then later, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Markets are hoping that it will step in with a new round of Operation Twist, whereby the Fed sells medium-term bonds and uses the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Here's today's agenda:

• German producer prices for May: 7am
• Italy industrial sales for April: 9am
• UK Bank of England minutes: 9.30am
• UK unemployment figures for May: 9.30am
• Swiss ZEW business confidence for June: 10am
• US Fed interest rate decision: 5.30pm
• Angela Merkel meets Dutch PM Mark Rutte: 6.30pm
• Fed chairman Bernanke holds press conference: 7.15pm

In the debt markets, Germany is selling €5bn of 2-year treasury bills at 11.30am and the UK is selling £5bn of 6-month paper.

7.23am: Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.

There's some confusion this morning over what was agreed at the G20 summit in Mexico to prevent the euro from imploding. Patrick Wintour, who is reporting from the summit, says reporters were briefed that European leaders are set to announce a plan to buy up Italian and Spanish bonds with the €750bn bailout fund, while German officials said nothing had yet been decided.

The FT has a similar story saying Angela Merkel was non-committal about the idea on Monday night, adding: "Officials said Ms Merkel had subsequent conversations on the sidelines of the summit which led her interlocutors to believe 'she may be willing to do more'."

The Wall Street Journal says the Spanish prime minister is trying to persuade his peers to allow the €100bn bank bailout to be lent directly to the banks.

The official communique meanwhile was typically vague. Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research notes:

What is apparent is that there was not the normal briefing where everyone gets the same story, which suggests that they still haven't got a clue what they are actually going to do.


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READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.guardian.co.uk

Greece inches towards a government coalition as socialist party nears a deal

Greek politicians, including New Democracy's Antonis Samaras (pictured), say they are 'hours away' from forming a pro-bailout coalition government which could ultimately save the euro.

READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.dailymail.co.uk

Greek leaders to ask for time to hit loan targets

Fresh from elections in which Greek voters pulled back from the brink of confrontation with its international creditors, the country is set to risk further ire by asking for more time to meet the targets it has been set in return for loans.



READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.independent.co.uk

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Britain and the eurozone: players not spectators | Editorial

The latest volume of Alastair Campbell's diaries are another reminder of how Europe has dominated and divided British governments for decades

The latest volume of Alastair Campbell's diaries are another reminder of how Europe has dominated and divided British governments for decades. The issue at the heart of Mr Campbell's latest volume was Tony Blair's determination to keep UK eurozone membership open and Gordon Brown's equal and opposite resolve to bolt the door. Go back a decade or so, and the divisive issue would have been the Maastricht treaty. A decade before that, the European exchange rate mechanism. Before that, membership of the European community itself, in or out, would have been the battleground around the cabinet table and between and within the political parties themselves.

And now? Europe undoubtedly still dominates the national agenda. David Cameron had barely touched down in Mexico for the G20 summit yesterday before he was issuing statements about what Greece and the eurozone nations should be doing. Yet it was said more as an observer than as a participant. Publicly at least, it is taken for granted that Britain is well off out of the eurozone. The only questions that appear to matter to the political class of both right and left are, first, whether the British economy can ignore the continent's turbulence and, second, what partisan advantage can be extracted from a seemingly inevitable EU referendum.

Yet the belief that Britain is blessed by being on high and secure ground from which we can watch as the European project is washed away, and then calmly turn our backs on it without damaging this country, is a misleading one. The real question is not whether Britain has an interest at stake in the eurozone crisis or the future of the EU, but how those real interests can be best defended and promoted. Ministers know this but prefer to play to the gallery. Mr Cameron also knows there is no economic firewall protecting Britain. George Osborne warned in his Mansion House speech last week that eurozone collapse would have dire consequences for Britain. British ministers are willy-nilly players in these events, as they always have been.

At the weekend, Mr Blair told the BBC it was critical for Britain to use its influence to shape the outcome. Characteristically, he talked in terms of a grand negotiation to produce a solution based both on growth and structural reforms to which all could sign up. It is easy to dismiss such talk. Yet it is a better and more realistic strategy than Mr Cameron's ineffectual and disingenuous warnings from the grandstand. Engagement is the strategy which John Major would have followed, not just Mr Blair or Mr Brown. Mr Cameron needs to stop the sermons this week and get much more actively engaged with forging more effective solutions.


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Obama to speak with EU leaders after G20 dinner-White House


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Obama to speak with EU leaders after G20 dinner-White House
Reuters
| LOS CABOS, Mexico, June 18 (Reuters) - US President Barack Obama will discuss the euro zone crisis and the state of the global economy with European leaders after the G20 dinner in Los Cabos on Monday, a White House official said.
Germany's Merkel, Obama Agree More Euro-Zone Political Integration Needed -SourceWall Street Journal
Greek election, debt crisis and G20 Summit: as it happened, June 17 - 18, 2012Telegraph.co.uk
G-20 leaders call for Europe to fix finance woesHouston Chronicle
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Greek coalition talks to continue

Socialist PASOK party says it will only enter coalition with broad support before lending its crucial support.

David Cameron fears 'near perpetual stagnation' in eurozone

Prime minister says Britain must look to emerging economies for economic salvation

The eurozone crisis could continue for years, forcing Britain to look outside a stagnant euro area for fresh export markets and economic salvation in the emerging economies, David Cameron has said.

His gloomy assessment of "near perpetual stagnation" came as pressure continued on Spanish bond yields and stock markets reacted coolly to the narrow Greek vote to back pro-bailout parties in Sunday's elections.

Speaking to reporters accompanying him to the G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, the prime minister said: "It may be that the eurozone crisis is going to continue for some time, in which case the UK must do all it can to put its own house in order and link up with the fastest growing parts of the world."

There was a serious danger eurozone leaders would be unable for political reasons to take the economic steps necessary to resolve the two-year-old crisis. Cameron regards banking union and a commitment to share debts between eurozone countries as indispensable, but possibly politically unobtainable.

He said: "It's difficult for the recipient countries. It's also very difficult for Germany. We have to understand the German difficulties.

"It is very difficult politically to take the steps that are required economically. We decided not to take those steps when we didn't join the euro.

"But nonetheless if you want a functioning single currency you have to take at least some of those steps. You need to have elements of banking union, fiscal transfers and so on."

He then sketched out three alternatives for the euro-area:

"Option one is that they take action to strengthen the eurozone, to make it more coherent. If this deals with the current problems it is clearly in their and our interests.

"Option two is enough financial action and just enough political and economic action to keep the show on the road, but without solving the fundamental problems.

"Option three is they don't take any of these steps and dominoes start to fall, which would have very severe financial consequences across the world and would seriously affect us."

Cameron, who believes the eurozone will muddle along on a path of slow growth, urged Greek politicians to quickly form a new government. He said: "The outcome of the Greek elections looks positive in terms of a clear commitment to staying in the eurozone and accepting the terms of the memorandum, but those parties that want that to happen cannot afford to delay and position themselves. If you are a Greek political party, and you want to say in the eurozone and you want to accept the consequences that follow from that in the memorandum, you have got to get on with it and help form a government to deliver that. I think delay could be very dangerous."

Britain accepts Greece may need more time to repay its loans.

Before travelling to Los Cabos, Cameron held a conference call with leading eurozone members attending the G20. A senior British diplomat described the call as displaying "a sense of purpose, in that it was a clear enough result to see that there could be a government that wants to stay in the euro and that is prepared to take the measures necessary to go with that.

"There was also a sense that this is a long, hard road that has got to be travelled. And there was a sense of urgency: right, we have had the election, now we need the government. That's where the questions need to go today."

Cameron would like to see some kind of banking union in the eurozone and the emergence of a system of transfer of resources within the euro area, possibly through euro bonds.

His aides say they expect further pressure to be put on Angela Merkel at the G20 summit, just as it was put on the German chancellor at the G8 summit in Washington last month. British officials stressed it had to be "constructive pressure".

Cameron is acutely aware that Merkel wants expectations lowered and that too many European politicians do the opposite at summits, leading to subsequent disappointment in the markets.

Barack Obama was meeting Merkel at the G20 summit separately, to seek an update on German thinking. The US president is also due to meet the key eurozone players – France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This quartet will meet in Italy on Friday ahead of a European council meeting next week.


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Monday, June 18, 2012

G20 summit: Barroso blames eurozone crisis on US banks

EC president says European leaders have not come to Mexico to receive lessons on how to handle the economy

The opening day of the G20 summit was threatening to deteriorate into a fractious row between eurozone countries and other non-European members of the G20, notably the US, as EU commission president José Manuel Barroso insisted the origins of the eurozone crisis lay in the unorthodox policies of American capitalism.

As Europe's leaders came under intense pressure to act decisively to cure the euro's ills, and a campaign gathered pace to relax some of the austerity programmes laying waste to countries burdened with unsustainable debt levels, Barroso insisted that Europe had not come to the G20 summit in Mexico to receive lessons on how to handle the economy.

When asked by a Canadian journalist "why should North Americans risk their assets to help Europe?" he replied: "Frankly, we are not here to receive lessons in terms of democracy or in terms of how to handle the economy.

"By the way this crisis was not originated in Europe … seeing as you mention North America, this crisis originated in North America and much of our financial sector was contaminated by, how can I put it, unorthodox practices, from some sectors of the financial market."

After the Greek election at the weekend, which may have shifted the terms of the debate over how to shore up the euro, world leaders meeting in Mexico focused on the European crisis amid strong signs of big trouble brewing in Spain.

Madrid's 10-year cost of borrowing went through the 7% barrier on the bond markets for the first time in the single currency era, the level at which borrowing becomes unaffordable. The Spanish government demanded intervention from the European Central Bank.

Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is expected to ask for up to €100bn in eurozone bailout funds for Spain's stricken banks at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Luxembourg on Thursday, senior Eurogroup sources said. Voicing exasperation with the European response to the debt crisis, Robert Zoellick, the outgoing American head of the World Bank, warned the G20 summit in Mexico of a growing rift between the Europeans in charge of the bailouts and the IMF.

"The world's waiting for the Europeans to say what they want to do," said Zoellick. He predicted a showdown between the IMF and Europe by the end of the summer in the absence of any decisive action.

Barack Obama was expected to press Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Mexico on Monday night on the issue of eurobonds – the pooling of liability for single currency countries' debt. But there is no chance of Merkel agreeing to underwrite the debt of other European countries for the foreseeable future.

Fresh from his victory in the Greek election, the centre-right leader, Antonis Samaras, promptly tabled demands for a softening of the draconian austerity programme that Greece has to implement for the eurozone bailout.

Samaras, the prime minister-designate pledged to stick broadly to the Greek bailout terms but added: "We will simultaneously have to make some necessary amendments to the bailout agreement, in order to relieve the people of crippling unemployment and huge hardships."

Politicians and officials in Brussels and Germany appeared to suggest that the new Greek leader's demands could be at least partly satisfied by extending the repayment schedule on the bailout loans or lengthening the target deadlines for cutting the budget deficit.

There were also reports that the terms underpinning Ireland's bailout could also be relaxed, giving Dublin a much longer repayment schedule on the loans. The talk of rescheduling the Greek bailout terms surfaced quickly on Sunday night, with the German foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, suggesting the Europeans could alter the timings. That triggered a row in Germany among the political class over the pros and cons of going easier on Greece.

In Brussels, the respected Bruegel thinktank said: "It is now increasingly clear that the [Greek] programme is severely off track. The [Samaras] victory doesn't change this fact and it has become unavoidable to open a discussion about the shape and form of a new Greek programme. This is a fact now broadly acknowledged by policymakers and in particular by German officials who have openly discussed the possibility of stretching fiscal targets."

Martin Schulz, the German social democrat who presides over the European parliament, added: "The new Greek government will be able to count on our constructive cooperation in possible fine-tuning of its reform strategy and economic targets. If Greece sticks to its commitments, the EU can examine what could be done further to solve the crisis."

From Mexico, however, Merkel appeared to dismiss any easing of the Greek conditions. "The new Greek government has to implement the commitments entered into by the country. The programme framework has to be kept."

The eurogroup source said that Samaras was expected to show up in Luxembourg on Thursday for the meeting of eurozone finance ministers which will grapple with Spain and how to respond to the Greek election results.


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To end this impasse, let us tap Europe's vast wealth | Polly Toynbee

Faced with a crisis almost as grave as war, social democrats must act in concert to end the toxic policies of austerity

All these words are Greek: crisis, chaos and apocalypse. Or, if the world was cleverer, this could still end in catharsis, and renewal. Market furies tear the heart out of Europe, first Greece, then Spain, Italy and France, and finally the world; so even beleaguered pro-Europeans give the euro's survival no more than a 50:50 chance. If all that's left is a tight little German and northern league, why would the EU stay together after that? The guttering flame of the European idea is hard to keep alight in this hurricane.

But it's not impossible. Look how decisively the French and Greek electorates reject the austerity economics that is killing growth in most of the EU. The tide of opinion is turning when even Standard & Poor's at last admits: "Austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating". The policy is tested to destruction. A patched-together coalition between old parties that brought Greece to its knees through corruption and cronyism only won because its pledge to get a better deal was marginally more convincing to a despairing electorate, short of food, medicine and fuel. But anti-austerity was the only message. Either default on debt or repay only once solid growth makes it feasible: more austerity leads back down the death spiral vortex.

If the new government gets no genuine relaxation of impossible bailout terms, more cuts may propel such protests that the radical Syriza will find itself in power shortly, after its meteoric rise from nowhere. How comfortable to be opposing, just a hair's breadth from power. It was not sour grapes (courtesy of Aesop, another Greek) for Syriza leaders to claim this is where they prefer to be for now.

In Britain gleeful anti-Europeans gloat "I told you so", with smirks on the faces of Norman Lamont, Nigel Farage and the rest. David Cameron on Monday yet again wagged his finger emptily at Germany, telling it to intervene, a bizarre stance from one who shares its austerity policy. In all the years of behaving badly to its neighbours, Britain has never been so ignored or so irrelevant to the key decisions taken by its vital trading partners. Despite sad reminders of Gordon Brown's worst traits at last week's Leveson hearings, compare and contrast Cameron's vacuity with Brown's finest hour: when no other leader stepped up, Brown galvanised the world to take fast action with a market-stunning £1trn rescue at the G20 in 2009. Cameron couldn't galvanise a flea circus.

Instead, his party wallows in a European crisis that will blow back at Britain. True, the blizzard will conveniently white out George Osborne's egregious economic errors, the zero growth and double-dip. Roll on a referendum, urge the Europhobes, but in or out of what? Their fantasy is that Britain can slip away to the European economic area on pick'n'mix terms, undercutting EU currencies and irksome trade rules: why wouldn't Europe wreak revenge for our obnoxious behaviour all these years?

At today's G20 no leader emerged to take the initiative, Barack Obama being deep in an election campaign, from which he may not return, and each country protecting its interests. Germany could save Greece, but not Spain and Italy. Germany could let the European Central Bank act as a firewall guarantee. It could allow inflation to ease the path, and embrace growth before debt. But faced by a choice between breaking the euro and abandoning German orthodoxy, Angela Merkel and her party would rather let most of Europe go: she has failed to warn her people of the enormous costs of that. Neither Obama nor Cameron could be seen to pay to save Europe – nor China, nor anyone else; and yet they all know the far greater cost of global collapse.

This is a return to the 1930s, Keynesians say: look where that leads politically. Or is this a dark echo of the first world war? Civilised countries thought protectionism and trade wars could never lead to bloodshed. But the world is no saner now than it was then. Countries pulling up drawbridges, undercutting and cheating each other with worsening relations in times of declining living standards, can still lead to European bloodletting. Look at the venom – the sneering at Greeks, Italians and Spaniards, lazy southern layabouts: blaming ineffective governments nastily morphs into blaming whole nations of inferior people. Germans are again represented as spike-helmeted automatons, bidding for a fiscal and political union that would reduce proud nations to town councils under Berlin's thumb. Germany v Greece on the Euro 2012 football field may be a comic coincidence this week, but nobody should dismiss the seriousness of the EU's "never again" founding purpose.

Europe's impasse needs new purpose, after the old economic certainties helped cause this cataclysm. Even if the EU scrapes through, that's not enough. What then? François Hollande and Ed Miliband are calling a summit of social democrats this autumn to challenge dogma and forge a growth and jobs programme for construction and investment. Keynesian parties need to draw Europe-wide strength and credibility by working together. Hollande proposes a £120bn redirection of EU funds to an emergency growth programme: he should throw in the CAP, too.

Abolishing tax havens, co-ordinating fair tax instead of destructive competition, ending secrecy of wealth and property ownership, cutting defence overspending by France, Britain and Greece: politically hard decisions are easier if social democrats can inspire people with the value of standing together, not falling apart.

The G20 may prove that there is no averting imminent calamity. But the rightwing austerians who caused it will have no solutions for its repair. Europe is phenomenally rich, yet has hardly tapped its own wealth. These governments are still in denial over the real depth of the emergency.

Germany imposed a solidarity tax to pay for reunification, taxing incomes, wealth and property. Britain has barely touched the abundance of its vast undertaxed wealth. This government can never rally the nation to unite in a crisis after hitting the weak hardest, with wealthy lifestyles remaining unchanged. The coalition may well fall apart sooner than expected: Labour needs to stand more ready than has yet been the case, with a radical alternative – easier to do as part of a Europe-wide appeal. In wartime bonds are issued to finance a national emergency by encouraging (or, from the rich, coercing) investment in a time of crisis. What Europe needs to escape slump is a war footing – but this time without the war.


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Greek coalition talks set to continue

Socialist PASOK party says it will only enter coalition with broad support before lending its crucial support.

Obama: Greek election results offer 'positive prospect' for recovery

US president adopts more supportive tone than most other world leaders, but main decisions unlikely to be made at G20 summit

Barack Obama hailed the Greek election results as offering a glimmer of hope in a eurozone crisis that is threatening to undermine the US recovery and the president's chances of re-election.

In his first comment on Sunday's election, Obama told reporters at the G20 summit in Mexico on Monday that the Greek election offered a "positive prospect".

That endorsement went much further than most other world leaders, particularly European ones, who have been much more circumspect in their reaction.

The White House has been watching in desperation at European leaders have bounced from summit to summit, leaving the crisis unresolved.

Although Obama needs a quick fix to the eurozone crisis, European leaders cautioned against expecting any solutions to emerge from the G20 summit, the gathering of the most advanced economies.

The euro crisis is acting a drag on business and consumer confidence in the US but the Obama administration has opted against injecting into Europe the billions of dollars that might help stabilise it, partly because it would be near impossible to get such a package through Congress.

Obama, at a meeting with Mexican president Felipe Calderon, who is hosting the summit, told reporters it was going to be a busy day and a half: "The world is very concerned about the slowing of growth that has taken place."

He added: "Now is a time as we've discussed to make sure that all of us do what's necessary to stabilise the world financial system, to avoid protectionism."

The White House issued a bland statement on Sunday welcoming the Greek vote and hoping its government would make "timely progress" on the economic challenges it faces. European leaders want Greece to make deep spending cuts in return for a rescue package.

Obama, who had spent the weekend having a break in Chicago, adopted a more positive tone on Monday than the White House statement from Sunday. "I think the election in Greece yesterday indicates a positive prospect for not only them forming a government, but also them working constructively with their international partners in order that they can continue on the path of reform and do so in a way that also offers the prospects for the Greek people to succeed and prosper," Obama said.

"And we are going to be working under your leadership and with our European partners, and with all countries, to make sure that we're contributing so that the economy grows, the situation stabilises, confidence returns to the markets and, most importantly we're giving our people the chance if they work hard to succeed and do well."

The summit will allow the Europeans to take "one important step in a series of steps that are going to be required to continue to improve global economic prospects," he said.

In spite of Obama's words, the main decisions are unlikely to be made at the summit but at meetings later in Europe, where there is remaining scepticism about whether Greece might yet have to leave the eurozone and also about the future of other members, such as Spain.


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