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Showing posts with label jos manuel barroso. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jos manuel barroso. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Cyprus takes over EU presidency amid doubts whether it can navigate crisis

EU's easternmost country, just 0.2% of eurozone economy, takes helm amid rows with Turkey and over UK enclave

Perched on a bluff high above the sea, the ancient theatre at Curium is among Cyprus's most spectacular sites. It is here, at 8pm on Thursday, that the Mediterranean island will officially launch its first EU presidency with Europe's great and good gathering in the dramatic setting.

Cyprus is the EU's most easterly point and, at the height of the continent's debt woes, the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, and other senior mandarins are keen to put on a display of solidarity. Even cushions are being provided to ensure that the assembled dignitaries are protected against the Greco-Roman theatre's famously flinty steps. But no amount of comfort will hide the fact that Curium – once the favoured site for many a gladiator fight – was chosen precisely because it lies outside the EU, on the Akrotiri "sovereign base area", a slither of territory that is technically British.

For the president, Demetris Christofias, who will address the audience, the military reserve – among 99 square miles retained by Britain when the island won independence in 1960 – is a "colonial bloodstain". The veteran communist, like many on the left, wants the area – excluded from the EU when Cyprus joined the bloc in 2004 – to be returned to the former crown colony. In holding the takeover ceremony at Curium, he hopes to reassert the point.

It is vintage Christofias. Alone among EU leaders, the 65-year-old Cypriot politician still believes in the tenets of Marxist-Leninism. Assuming the EU presidency at a time of unprecedented upheaval for the 27-member union is by far the biggest challenge for a state that is not only young but, 38 years after a Greek-triggered Turkish invasion, divided to boot. For the first time ever an EU aspirant – Turkey – does not even recognise the country now heading the bloc. Since 1974, some 35,000 Turkish troops have been stationed in the pariah state of northern Cyprus, which is bankrolled by Ankara.

But for Christofias, the role of EU council president may well be a respite from a term in office that has also been plagued by misfortune. "Outside his own diehard supporters he no longer has any credibility," said Hubert Faustmann, who teaches political science at the University of Nicosia. "There is huge disaffection with his government … he is now perceived as the worst president to hold public office in the history of the republic."

Barely a week before taking over the presidency, Cyprus was forced to follow Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in resorting to both the EU and IMF for emergency financial assistance. On Wednesday, as a 30-strong team of inspectors began poring over the island's accounts, it became glaringly apparent that the aid injection might be much bigger than initially expected. Reports suggested that as much as €10bn – more than half of Cyprus's total €17.3bn national output – could be needed only to shore up Cypriot banks badly hit by exposure to Greece. More would be required to rescue the economy.

The irony has not been lost on other EU states that a "broke and bankrupt" member, whose economy represents a mere 0.2% of the eurozone, is now at the helm of policy-making just when Europe faces its greatest hour of need. Suspicions that Christofias might not be the man to navigate the crisis have been further underpinned by his government's determination to seek loans from Moscow and Beijing in addition to rescue funds from the EU.

The decision to reach out to Russia and China – countries the Moscow-trained president openly admires – has raised doubts over the island's allegiances at such a delicate time.

"It is the sovereign right of every country to look for bilateral loans," the government spokesman Stefanos Stefanou told the Guardian. "We will have more options to finance our needs. And nobody [in the EU] has said anything."

In Brussels, officials beg to differ. The woeful state of Cypriot finances has been widely blamed on Christofias, who has spent four of his five years in office refusing to enact punishing reforms that would affect his Akel party's traditional powerbase in the unions and public sector. Instead of reining in a civil service that accounts for a whopping 31% of state expenditure, the sector has continued to grow with employees enjoying formidable state largesse. Shortly after taking office the communist president ensured that Cyprus's overstretched diplomatic corps opened an embassy in Cuba.

The economy took a further blow when a massive blast at a munitions dump last August knocked out the island's largest power station, resulting in widespread electricity cuts. The explosion, which killed 13 people including the commander of the country's navy, was described as "a catastrophe of biblical proportions" by Christofias who was subsequently held responsible for failing to ensure that adequate protective measures were enacted to prevent the blast. Instead of resigning, the leader vehemently denied the accusations and stayed on.

With less than eight months before presidential elections are held again, Cypriot officials have warned potential creditors that there is little appetite for the stinging austerity meted out to the nation's cousin in Greece. "We have highlighted the need that they be particularly careful concerning issues of social and political cohesion," said the finance minister, Vassos Shiarly, after holding talks with visiting inspectors from the EU, ECB and IMF.

The Cypriot government has vowed not to allow "the Cyprus problem" to become an over-riding issue during its six-month stint at the helm of the presidency. But there are few who would contest that had the island been reunited between its majority population of Greeks in the south and Turks in the north, the economic turmoil it now faces may not have been so worrying. As a moderate, Christofias was widely seen as the biggest hope of resolving the west's longest-running diplomatic dispute. In her air-conditioned office in the divided capital, the foreign affairs minister Erato Kazakou-Marcoullis lamented this week that after 130 meetings between leaders from both communities and another 150 between chief advisers from either side, UN-brokered negotiations were "in deadlock".

It is a sad reality that those attending the celebrations in Curium will doubtless prefer to ignore.


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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Eurozone crisis live: Merkel to address German parliament

German chancellor has reportedly ruled out eurobonds for 'as long as I live'
European stock markets open higher, Spanish and Italian yields flat

8.10am: European stock markets have opened higher:

• The FTSE 100 index in London is up 25 points at 5472, a 0.5% gain
• Germany's Dax and France's CAC have both risen 0.4%
• Spain's Ibex has climbed 0.8%
• Italy's FTSE MiB is up 0.7%

Spanish and Italian ten-year government bond yields are flat at 6.885% and 6.19% respectively.

7.53am: Ian Traynor, our Europe editor, reports ahead of today's Merkel-Hollande meeting in Paris:

Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Paris on Wednesday to try to strike a Franco-German deal with President François Hollande amid deep-seated differences at what has been described as Europe's defining moment.

With the two key EU countries split for the first time in 30 months of single currency and sovereign debt crisis, José Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission laid bare the high stakes in play at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday as well as the high frictions between Germany and France.

Merkel's first visit to the Élysée Palace under its new occupant has been hastily arranged and comes on the eve of what is being billed as a crucial Brussels summit which, apart from the immediate financial dilemmas, is to wrestle with a radical blueprint aimed at turning the 17 countries of the eurozone into a fully-fledged political federation within a decade.

"We must articulate the vision of where Europe must go, and a concrete path for how to get there," warned Barroso. But he was unsure "whether the urgency of this is fully understood in all the capitals of the EU".

Since his election last month, France's socialist leader has quickly emerged as the most formidable challenger to German formulas for Europe's salvation after two years of Berlin largely dictating the EU response to the crisis.

Merkel is feeling bruised, having just withstood two unusual attempts by fellow leaders to ambush her and get Berlin to hand over its credit cards to write off what they see as other countries' profligacy.

In Mexico last week at the G20 and then in Rome at two bad-tempered summits in recent days, the Americans and the British – in cahoots with the leaders of France, Spain and Italy – sought to press Merkel into bankrolling fiscal stimulus and bank recapitalisation policies that would cut the vulnerable eurozone countries' cost of borrowing.

The pressure on Merkel may have backfired and reinforced German resistance to the ideas. The view in Berlin is that Hollande will have to back down amid the relative weakness of the French economy.

7.51am: EU president Herman Van Rompuy published the leaked report for a path towards deeper economic and monetary union yesterday. Elisabeth Afseth, fixed income analyst at Investec, says:


The timeframe for achieving this is a decade, which is ambitious given the lack of agreement after well over two years of dealing with the crisis. Van Rompuy (in collaboration with ECB President Mario Draghi, EU Commission President Jose Barroso and the leader of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker), sets out broad plans for further integration of fiscal policy as well as banking regulation, maintaining national decision making, but with the overriding control moving to the EU level.

It proposes upper limits on national budgets (in line with the fiscal compact) and moving towards joint bond issuance. The plan will be discussed at the European leaders' summit tomorrow and Friday, I expect there might be some general agreement in the direction of need for further integration, but the plan includes a lot of measures that Germany has rejected firmly in the recent past and it is unlikely it will change its tone much.

7.21am: Good morning and welcome back to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis and world economy.

Expectations for the EU summit, which starts tomorrow, are getting lower by the day.

Angela Merkel's comments today when she speaks to the German parliament will be closely scrutinised, after she reportedly ruled out the idea of jointly guaranteed eurozone debt for "as long as I live" at a closed meeting with her coalition partners yesterday. Later today the chancellor is due to meet French president François Hollande, her first visit to the Élysée Palace since the Socialist leader was elected.

Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research said:

If she really did say that then it is difficult to see how this week's summit can be anything other than a disaster and it may well be that the eurozone is heading into the abyss. Meanwhile it was reported that Mario Monti had threatened to resign unless common euro bonds were introduced, although this was denied by a spokesperson for the PM. Interesting that as far as I am aware Ms Merkel's comments have not been denied…

Italian and Spanish borrowing costs surged at auctions yesterday, when the Italian government bought €2bn of bonds from its oldest bank, Monte di Paschi, in an attempt to shore up its capital cushion.


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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

François Hollande and Angela Merkel meet in Paris with high stakes at play

Franco-German discussions need to build 'a concrete path' for Europe, says José Manuel Barroso

Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Paris on Wednesday to try to strike a Franco-German deal with President François Hollande amid deep-seated differences at what has been described as Europe's defining moment.

With the two key EU countries split for the first time in 30 months of single currency and sovereign debt crisis, José Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission laid bare the high stakes in play at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday as well as the high frictions between Germany and France.

Merkel's first visit to the Élysée Palace under its new occupant has been hastily arranged and comes on the eve of what is being billed as a crucial Brussels summit which, apart from the immediate financial dilemmas, is to wrestle with a radical blueprint aimed at turning the 17 countries of the eurozone into a fully-fledged political federation within a decade.

"We must articulate the vision of where Europe must go, and a concrete path for how to get there," warned Barroso. But he was unsure "whether the urgency of this is fully understood in all the capitals of the EU".

Since his election last month, France's socialist leader has quickly emerged as the most formidable challenger to German formulas for Europe's salvation after two years of Berlin largely dictating the EU response to the crisis.

Merkel is feeling bruised, having just withstood two unusual attempts by fellow leaders to ambush her and get Berlin to hand over its credit cards to write off what they see as other countries' profligacy.

In Mexico last week at the G20 and then in Rome at two bad-tempered summits in recent days, the Americans and the British – in cahoots with the leaders of France, Spain and Italy – sought to press Merkel into bankrolling fiscal stimulus and bank recapitalisation policies that would cut the vulnerable eurozone countries' cost of borrowing.

"It was all wishful thinking or a political game," said a senior EU official of the ambush attempts. "There are substantial economic and political interests at play. Governments are spinning in their respective interests."

The pressure on Merkel may have backfired and reinforced German resistance to the ideas. The view in Berlin is that Hollande will have to back down amid the relative weakness of the French economy.

The blueprint unveiled on Tuesday calls for a eurozone political federation to be built over a decade entailing four stages. The details are thin and are to be fleshed out by the end of the year by the heads of four of the main European institutions, but the proposals – a response to the Greek drama that erupted 30 months ago and which has engulfed the EU into its most perilous crisis ever – mark the most ambitious European plan since agreement on the single currency was reached at Maastricht 20 years ago.

Thursday marks the start of what will be a long, exhausting, and bruising battle essentially pitting German-led integrationist pressure against French-led protection of sovereign authority and reluctance to cede immense powers over budgets and tax-and-spend policies to Brussels and a new eurozone finance ministry, proposals that also raise fundamental questions about democratic legitimacy in the EU.

To be realised, the "political union" would require a major legal overhaul, reopening EU treaties, endless quarrels, probably a new German constitution and perhaps a referendum in Britain and its departure from the EU.

"These decisions on deeper economic, financial and fiscal integration imply major changes to the way our citizens are governed and to the way their taxes are spent," said Barroso. "This crisis is the biggest threat to all that we have achieved through European construction over the last 60 years… A big leap forward is now needed."

The proposals, likely to expose fundamental splits over Europe's future, will do little to resolve the immediate debt and currency crisis. The hope is that the medium-term master plan will placate the financial markets by demonstrating political resolve to defend the currency at all costs. The risk is that the leaders will appear so divided that the markets might step up their probing of the weaker bits of the eurozone, notably Spain and Italy.

Without a Franco-German accord, the prospects of a damaging summit in Brussels are high. Last week Hollande issued policy proposals for the summit, a growth and jobs pact whose details are anathema to Berlin – the issue of short-term shared eurozone debt leading to full pooled debt, common eurozone guarantees for bank deposits, protectionist measures favouring European manufacturers and bidders for public contracts over outsiders as well as direct eurozone recapitalisation of dodgy banks without increasing national debt levels.

The Germans feel under pressure, but Merkel will court big trouble at home if she yields. A pro-European commentator in Der Spiegel this week suggested she should sacrifice her political career to save Europe and the currency.

There is little chance of that happening. But the German elite is deeply worried about Hollande's France, because of the impact it could have on the German economy's prospects battling the emerging might of China, India or Brazil.

Berlin's angst is that Europe can only be saved and a successful Europe re-established if the two core countries are in harness, that it cannot bear the burden alone, and that if the Franco-German dynamic dissipates, the German economy will be among the biggest victims of failure.

Berlin points to the widening gap in employment costs between Germany and France; a youth unemployment rate in France triple that of Germany; Hollande's first move in reducing the retirement age and France's overall loss of competitiveness over the past decade. It fears being dragged down as a result. The cautious hope is that Hollande will turn out or be forced to be France's Gerhard Schröder, the ex-German chancellor and, like Hollande, a social democrat who executed the economic, welfare, and structural reforms a decade ago that put Germany in its current strong shape.

Hollande heads a socialist party, however, that is a lot less "modernised" than Schröder's SPD or the Labour Party under Blair and which is eternally split over Europe. Hollande's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, spearheaded the No campaign in the French referendum that sunk the European constitution in 2005.

And the crisis is throwing into sharp relief the basic divisions, particularly on the grand plan being fought over . A crisis that started financially on the EU's periphery, in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, has now shifted politically to the union's heart, the Berlin-Paris axis.

France may baulk at the blueprint being tabled, being deeply reluctant to surrender so much sovereign power to new eurozone authorities, while Germany will only accept the liability for others being thrust on it if the powers are federalised.

A senior EU diplomat intimately involved in the Franco-German dynamic for 20 years says, however, that Merkel and Hollande are condemned to forging a modus operandi and that the stakes are too big.

"Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand were dreadful at the start. They hated each other. Gerhard Schröder and Jacques Chirac was the lowest I ever saw. It's always like this with France and Germany," he said.

"They always represent different positions and then they find a compromise that everyone else agrees with except the UK."


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Monday, June 18, 2012

After Greek Vote, Europe Still Has a Host of Problems


New York Times

After Greek Vote, Europe Still Has a Host of Problems
New York Times
FRANKFURT — After Greek elections eased fears that the country's exit from the euro zone was imminent, attention turned Monday to another unruly political arena: Europe itself. A respite from market pressure early Monday proved to be short-lived, ...
US stocks meander as European debt crisis festersThe Associated Press
FOREX-Euro falls as Spanish yields soarReuters
Eurozone crisis: Spanish debt fears cut short markets' Greek reliefThe Guardian
Christian Science Monitor -Wall Street Journal -ABC Online
all 8,995 news articles »

Greek election winner Antonis Samaras under pressure to form broad coalition

European leaders hope large coalition including smaller parties will be able to push through austerity measures

Greece's prime minister designate, Antonis Samaras, is coming under European pressure to cobble together the broadest and strongest possible coalition government in the hope that a sweeping parliamentary majority will be able to push through the draconian austerity programme pledged in return for the country's bailout.

As the centre-right leader opened negotiations on a new government, it was clear that European leaders hoped he would move beyond a "grand coalition" with his rival centre-left Pasok party which would muster 162 seats in the 300-seat chamber. If another two smaller parties were brought in, the new government would command 200 of the 300 seats.

Given the strength and popularity of the main opposition radical Syriza movement led by Alexis Tsipras, the new star of Greek politics, and its potential for fomenting an anti-austerity street campaign, eurozone officials are worried that a narrower Samaras-led coalition could prove unstable and yet buckle.

José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European commission, spoke to Samaras following his election victory and is believed to have pressed him on the strong coalition issue.

"We hope the government will be formed swiftly," said an EU official.

"We hope it will be based on the largest majority, the largest possible to ensure the memorandum," he added in reference to the bailout terms signed by Greece with the troika of the European commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Given the political paralysis for the past two months in Greece, officials in Brussels say the bailout programme is way off track, that tens of billions need to flow to Greece in the next few months to keep the country solvent, but that this can only happen once a government is in place that has recommitted to observing the stiff terms.

Earlier this year, as Greece's second bailout was being fought over, Samaras stalled over signing a letter pledging him to play by the agreed rules. Both the Pasok and New Democracy leaders eventually delivered signed pledges to Brussels on the bailout terms, making it possible to launch the €130bn rescue.

EU officials pointedly argued that the two main parties expected to form the core of the new government had already, before the weekend elections, promised to stick to the programme, which is widely reviled in Greece.

Under the bailout terms, Greece is supposed to announce €11.7bn in spending cuts this month to keep qualifying for the flow of eurozone and IMF funds. It also has to repay €3.8bn of debt in August.

The troika teams are to go to Athens to scrutinise the books as soon as a government is formed, which could be this week. They were supposed to go in May but delayed because of the election campaign.

The Europeans also withheld €1bn in funds to Greece.

But if things go according to plan, the Greeks would qualify for a bumper payout of €31.2bn, probably in August.

"There have been delays. That has to be faced," said another EU official. "At this point in time, that's no secret."

Although the Samaras victory has been met with huge relief across EU capitals, the New Democracy leader is viewed warily by European policy-makers because of his past record as a populist tub-thumper against the bailout conditions. Senior sources in Brussels said there was a good chance the likely prime minister would show up in Brussels to take part in a meeting of eurozone finance ministers which will grapple with the Greek fallout and how to reinforce the Greek rescue.

The Pasok leader and former prime minister and finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, is also not seen as fully trustworthy.


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Euro Watch: Markets Signal Initial Relief at Greek Election Results

Analysts warned that any rally could be short-lived as Greece’s difficulty forming a new government and tackling its vast economic problems sets in.

Markets Signal Initial Relief at Greek Election Results


Globe and Mail

Markets Signal Initial Relief at Greek Election Results
New York Times
LONDON — Financial markets and political leaders reacted with initial relief Monday to the results of the Greek elections, which eased fears that the country will leave the euro and unleash further turmoil on the beleaguered single currency.
Greek election victor to hold coalition talksThe Associated Press
Greek election boosts markets but worries remainThe Guardian
FOREX-Euro hits 1-month high on Greek reliefReuters
Wall Street Journal -Telegraph.co.uk -ABC Online
all 5,278 news articles »

Sunday, June 17, 2012

A Syriza victory will mark the beginning of the end of Greece's tragedy | Costas Douzinas and Joanna Bourke

A vote for the left today will drastically change the austerity policies that have created a humanitarian crisis

The Financial Times Deutschland last week published an article on its front page headlined "Resist the demagogue". It was written in Greek. The article advised the Greeks to reject the radical left Syriza party and vote for the rightwing New Democracy today. It is the culmination of an astounding campaign of fear and blackmail against the democratic right of Greeks to elect a government of their choice.

Angela Merkel, the European commission president José Manuel Barroso, and even George Osborne, have ordered the Greeks to vote the right way. This direct intervention into the democratic process of a sovereign state follows a plethora of threats and rumours, secrets and lies, telling people that if they vote for Syriza, the country will be ejected from the euro and untold catastrophes will follow.

Why are the European elites carrying out this unprecedented campaign, which strikes at the heart of the EU and would lead to outrage if the target were the British, the Italians, or the French? The reason is simple. If the Greeks vote a Syriza government into office, the EU and the IMF will have to drastically change the austerity policies that created an economic disaster and a humanitarian crisis.

The 6 May result saw Syriza's share of the vote jump from 4% to 17%, while the New Democracy and Pasok parties, which had alternated in government with a combined 80% of the vote in the last 40 years, collapsed to 32%. On 7 May, the Europeans started admitting the Greeks have been punished disproportionately, and that austerity does not work and must be mitigated. On 17 June, a Syriza victory will be the first defeat of austerity in Europe and will have international repercussions.

The belated admission by the IMF and EU "experts" that austerity does not work is a direct result of the 6 May results. The figures are staggering: more than 20% contraction of output over four years; 22% unemployment and 54% youth unemployment; a 24-point jump in the poverty index; and a 50% reduction in the salaries and pension of civil servants. The second memorandum moved to the private sector, abolishing collective bargaining and other basic labour law protections, as well as cutting the minimum wage and unemployment benefits by up to 32%.

The Guardian has documented the humanitarian catastrophe that followed. Soup kitchens for the middle class, a huge jump in homelessness and mental disease, daily suicides, lack of basic medicines, cancer patients turned away from pharmacies, and hospitals ceasing operation because of a lack of basic supplies. The question on Sunday is not between the euro and the drachma, but between the continuation of these policies or salvation from the greatest destruction a people have experienced in peacetime. If something is leading to the exit from the euro, a probable collapse of the eurozone and a possible world crisis of 1930s magnitude, is not the Syriza policies but extreme austerity and mad economic recipes.

Syriza is totally committed to the eurozone. Its manifesto promises an immediate repeal of all laws enacted by the Greek government after the bailouts. Some of the measures affecting the private sector were never demanded by the troika – the EU, IMF and the European Central Bank – and were introduced by the establishment parties. After that, negotiations will start for a substantial reduction of the debt, which may be followed by a moratorium on servicing the debt until the economy starts growing again.

In a highly symbolic move, the minimum wage and unemployment benefit will return to their pre-austerity levels. Syriza's anti-austerity and pro-Europe policies represent the best interests of the Greek people.

Why don't the Greeks bow to the threats coming from such powerful quarters? Why has the disinformation campaign backfired, making Merkel the best canvasser for Syriza? The answer can be found in the same FT article. New Democracy, the paper admits, is "co-responsible" (with Pasok) for the sorry state of the country. The two establishment parties built their rule on an inefficient and corrupt state, characterised by clientelism, corruption, and kickbacks for apparatchiks and their coffers. Their servile acceptance of the European austerity diktat sounded their death knell. The majority of the people did not evade their taxes because they are taxed at source, and they did not act corruptly because they did not have any power. Now they do not accept the FT logical fallacy: vote for the parties who brought you to your current predicament in order to be saved.

Throughout history, revolutions have succeeded when a power system runs its course and becomes historically obsolete. It may survive for a while but eventually a political agent appears, to give the final push to the redundant and harmful ancien regime. The collapse of the Greek political elite is a textbook case of how historical necessity combines with popular desire to lead to radical change. Whether Syriza wins on Sunday or not, a new type of socialism will enter the European scene.

But why was Syriza adopted by people who never formerly associated with the left? One answer lies in the resistance of the Greeks over the last two years, particularly the occupations of Syntagma and 60 other squares throughout Greece. The multitude in the squares represented every section of the community. Greeks and foreigners met with a common political desire to get rid of austerity and the corrupt establishment.

The post-civil war divide between victors and defeated dissolved in the popular assemblies of the squares and in clouds of teargas. Syriza members participated in the occupations without attempting to lead or direct. The party is a coalition of 12 groups with equal rights in policymaking. Disagreements are allowed. Syriza's internal organisation came closest to the direct democracy operating in the squares. On 6 May, the multitude of the squares met again in the polling stations and voted massively for Syriza. This is how revolutions occur.

On Sunday, the Greeks have a rendezvous with history. A Syriza victory will be the beginning of the end of the Greek tragedy and a message to the rest of the world.


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