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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

ECB could cut interest rates after German output falls

Analysts say cut is imminent as German manufacturing contracts for first time in five months

Weaker than forecast factory output in Germany and China sent the oil price below $100 on Tuesday and raised expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates at its monthly meeting next month.

German manufacturing contracted for the first time in five months while France, Italy and Spain suffered steep cutbacks in output. China maintained its recent upturn in output, though at a slower pace. Data from the US also showed a slowdown at its factories in April.

The ECB is poised to reduce the base rate from 0.75% after months of bleak figures from across the single currency zone. Analysts said a rate cut was imminent after Jens Weidmann, head of Germany's central bank, conceded that lower interest rates would be considered should there be a worsening in the economic data.

The prospect of cheaper funds from the ECB sent stock markets soaring. The FTSE 100 shrugged off the poor manufacturing figures to climb 125 points to 6406 while the Paris CAC finished the day up 3.6% at 3783.

The gloomy state of the eurozone economies, which has surprised officials in Brussels, is likely to continue through the summer months, said analysts.

The European Commission and the ECB had previously forecast a recovery in the second half of the year as a crisis that has forced Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus to apply for bailouts appeared to be receding.

But northern Europe has increasingly suffered as austerity cuts in the south hit their exports.

Christoph Weil, economist at Commerzbank, said it was likely the ECB will reduce interest rates to 0.5%, in line with the Bank of England.

"Investors are convinced the ECB will do whatever it takes to prevent a breakup of the monetary union. However, the central bank cannot solve the structural problems in the crisis countries with the printing press.

"For this reason the economic outlook for these countries remains rather gloomy. And the impact is felt not only by companies in the crisis countries. The lack of demand from the periphery is affecting also the core countries. As long as there is no marked improvement in sales prospects, even the low interest rates are unlikely to induce companies to invest more," he said.

The US manufacturing sector also slowed, growing at its slowest pace in six months during April following a downturn in the domestic market. Markit's US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 52 from 54.6, remaining just above the 50 level that marks the line between growth and contraction.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said the findings suggested output growth was slowing sharply in the second quarter.

"While this week's first quarter GDP numbers may... bring some brighter news on the economy, the picture looks to have already begun to darken again, with GDP growth set to weaken in the second quarter."

The US data "will obviously add significantly to concerns, most recently related to the softer China and German data, that another seasonal slowdown in the global economy is taking hold," said Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank's head of G10 currency strategy.


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Plan for Greek civil service overhaul settled


Kathimerini

Plan for Greek civil service overhaul settled
Kathimerini
The coalition has agreed on a plan for the sacking of civil servants, it emerged on Tuesday, which will see around 2,000 bureaucrats removed from their positions by the end of June. Athens has agreed to fire 15,000 civil servants by the end of next ...


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Shipping could help Greece exit crisis, says study


FRANCE 24

Shipping could help Greece exit crisis, says study
FRANCE 24
People pass docked ferries at the port of Piraeus, near Athens, on January 31 , 2013. Greece's merchant marine sector could well account for ten percent of the country's GDP and help the Greek economy recover from the economic crisis, according to a ...
Greek Seamen Join May Day StrikeGreek Reporter
Greek ferry seamen launch 24-hour strikeLas Vegas Sun

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Scotland's currency options

Should an independent Scotland try to form a sterling pact with England, join the euro, or create its own currency?

Have its own currency

A Scottish currency – let's call it a Scotdollar – would be a simple solution. Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale already print their own notes, so a switch in name and letting it float against other currencies would not be much of a leap.

But as Iceland has discovered, currencies belonging to small countries can rise and fall with alarming regularity, causing havoc for exporters. And pain comes with a fall. A decline in the value of the Scotdollar would push up the cost of imports and send inflation soaring. Businesses would say they could not plan with such uncertainty.

To solve the problem, Iceland wants to join the euro.

Join the euro

Joining the 17-member currency could be a boon to Scotland. With a raft of new rules in place to prevent another banking crash, the euro could prove a safe haven in an uncertain world.

But not everyone is equal inside the euro, as the Germans have made clear in their dealings with the troubled Greeks, Portuguese, Irish and Cypriots, who have taken some unpleasant medicine in recent months.

Many economists believe the strains inside the currency union are so great that it will eventually fall apart, bringing huge costs to an independent Scotland.

Sterling pact with England

While it might be simpler maintaining a currency union of two rather than 17, the same strains could appear very quickly. George Osborne says there is a compelling case for the Scottish, who export 30% of their goods and services to the rest of the UK, to form a sterling union, but not for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, who send only 5% of output to Scotland.

But would Edinburgh agree a pact unless it brought equal status and power on the Bank of England board? That would be a high price for the Bank to pay. And could Scotland, or England come to that, stay within agreed tax-and-spend limits when local electorates want higher spending?

Sterling pact without Bank of England

Maintaining Scottish sterling and telling everyone it is worth the same as the English version, without any agreement with London, would mimic the arrangement in Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama, which use the US dollar as currency.

It can have the same pitfalls as a currency pact. The plan can fall apart over time if Scottish wages fail to keep pace with the UK's. A Mars bar may become more expensive in Scotland relative to incomes, and either the price falls or the Mars bar disappears.

Adopt the dollar

Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama use the dollar for everything, while countries such as Costa Rica have a currency that most islanders ignore in favour of the dollar. Either way, the dollar is king. It could work for Scotland – it is the currency oil is traded in and might cement links with the US.


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Greece's tourism arrivals fell by 5.5 percent last year


Greece's tourism arrivals fell by 5.5 percent last year
Kathimerini
The number of international visits to Greece fell 5.5 percent last year, as political turmoil during elections in June and the economic crisis in Europe affected the country's tourism industry. A total of 15.5 million non-resident visitors arrived in ...
Tourism dropped 5.5% in 2012 amid crisisEnetEnglish

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UCM Student Receives Greek Scholarship


UCM Student Receives Greek Scholarship - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
STLtoday.com
UCM student Liz Renaud, member of Alpha Phi International Fraternity, received the Christy “Cee” Cox Whitley Sisterhood Scholarship at the Greek Week closing ceremonies, April 8. In order to receive the Christy “Cee” Cox Whitley Sisterhood Scholarship, ...

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Greece Internal Devaluation Update


Wall Street Journal (blog)

Greece Internal Devaluation Update
Wall Street Journal (blog)
So, how has the deflationary process been playing out in Greece? Not too well. There has been a sharp drop in Greece's nominal gross domestic product (that's the one that doesn't adjust for inflation), which the IMF now projects will have fallen more ...

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Does The Greek System Do More Harm Than Good?


Does The Greek System Do More Harm Than Good?
Huffington Post
miler4salem April 23, 2013 18:22 Greek life is the cherry on top of the monumental pile of garbage that is post-secondary education today. Ianthe010203 April 23, 2013 18:22 [Ianthe010203], Total Frat Move is the worst. John_Shaw April 23, 2013 18:22 ...


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Ontario isn't in Greece's straits — yet


Ontario isn't in Greece's straits — yet
Hamilton Spectator
Unless the Kathleen Wynne government makes serious structural spending changes, young citizens of Ontario are going to inherit a bankrupt province, similar to the likes of Greece and Cyprus. Our provincial government has gone on a reckless spending ...


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Two Archbishops Abducted Outside Of Northern Syrian City


AFP

Two Archbishops Abducted Outside Of Northern Syrian City - RTTNews
RTT News
Yohanna Ibrahim, the Syriac Orthodox archbishop of Aleppo, and Paul Yazigi, the Greek Orthodox archbishop of Aleppo, have both been kidnapped by armed rebels in the northern province of Aleppo, according to Syria's state news agency SANA. The rebel ...
Two Archbishops Are Kidnapped Outside Northern Syrian CityNew York Times
Syria crisis: Aleppo bishops released - Tuesday 23 AprilThe Guardian (blog)
Two kidnapped bishops released in Syria: Official - GlobalPostGlobalPost
The Daily Star -BBC News -Ahlul Bayt News Agency - abna.ir
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Kidnapped Syrian bishops are released


AFP

Kidnapped Syrian bishops are released - church official
BBC News
Two bishops who were abducted by gunmen in a rebel-held area of northern Syria have been released, a church official has said. The pair have returned to the city of Aleppo, Greek Orthodox Bishop Tony Yazigi told Reuters. The senior clerics, Yohanna ...
Two kidnapped Syrian bishops freed: church officialReuters
Two Archbishops Abducted Outside Of Northern Syrian City - RTTNewsRTT News
Syria crisis: Aleppo bishops released - Tuesday 23 AprilThe Guardian (blog)
GlobalPost -New York Times -U-T San Diego
all 75 news articles »

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2 Syrian rockets hit Lebanon as tensions rise

In this undated combo picture released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Bishop Boulos Yazigi of the Greek Orthodox Church, left, and John Ibrahim of the Assyrian Orthodox Church, right, who were kidnapped Monday, in the northern province of Aleppo, Syria. the fate of two priests who were kidnapped Monday in the northern province of Aleppo is still unknown. It was not immediately clear who abducted Bishop Boulos Yazigi of the Greek Orthodox Church and John Ibrahim of the Assyrian Orthodox Church, said Greek Orthodox Bishop Tony Yazigi. He said the two bishops were abducted from the village of Kfar Deal, and their driver was killed by the gunmen. (AP Photo/SANA)BEIRUT (AP) — Two Syrian rockets struck Lebanon on Tuesday, causing damage and heightening tensions between Lebanese Shiite and Sunni communities over neighboring Syria's civil war, security officials in Beirut said.



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Angela Merkel Explains Why Germany is Not Poorer Than Spain Or Greece

You will recall that back last week the European Central Bank released a report that said that German households were the poorest ones in the Eurozone. Despite having higher wages and living in a richer country, they were poorer than households in Cyprus, Greece and Spain. This was a result of such gargling nonsense that of course a politician decided to use it as the basis of a plan. This was that any future bailouts should be paid for by those richer Mediterranean households rather than Germans.

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Cut The Rope: Time Travel cheats and tips


Cut The Rope: Time Travel cheats and tips - Ancient Greece walkthrough
Games.com News (blog)
We've already brought you a general game guide for ZeptoLab's brand new game, but if you're looking for a spoiler-tastic Cut The Rope: Time Travel walkthrough, we'll be pulling together all of the three-star video solutions you need to beat even the ...

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Leveson: counsel's relationship with barrister did not compromise inquiry

Judge defends Carine Patry Hoskins over relationship with David Sherborne, who acted for phone-hacking victims

Lord Justice Leveson has cleared the junior counsel to his inquiry over suggestions she compromised its impartiality by conducting a relationship with the lead barrister for victims of press intrusion.

The senior judge intervened on Tuesday by defending Carine Patry Hoskins over her relationship with David Sherborne, the barrister for Hugh Grant and other phone-hacking victims.

In a letter to the Conservative MP, Rob Wilson, Leveson said: "There was simply no room for a 'breach of confidence or other conspiracy' as a result of personal relations between her and Mr Sherborne."

He added that it was for the Bar Standards Board to decide whether to take any action against Patry Hoskins – but maintained she did not influence his report making proposals on the future regulation of the press, which was published in November last year.

"She had absolutely no input into any conclusion as to the past treatment of those affected by press abuses (or, indeed, the relationship between the press and the public as considered by module one of the inquiry) or any aspect of the proposals made for future press regulation," Leveson said in his letter. "She was simply not involved in any of this work."

The judge said that Patry Hoskins proof read the report in the final few days before publication, but that "she did not see and was not involved in any discussions about any of the other sections of the report or, indeed, in any of my eventual recommendations".

His rare public intervention comes three days after the Mail on Sunday reported that Patry Hoskins and Sherborne were in a relationship. The pair have said that their relationship only started after the Leveson report was published in November.

However, according to the Mail on Sunday, the pair flew to the Greek island of Santorini days for a holiday together after the inquiry's public hearings had concluded in July last year.

Patry Hoskins and Sherborne told friends that they went on holiday to Santorini only to "discuss the possibility of a future relationship".

In a statement last week, the inquiry's lead counsel, Robert Jay QC, said he had been told the relationship on 18 March, but the Santorini trip "has only been mentioned this week".

A spokesman for the Bar Standards Board declined to say whether it has launched an investigation into the allegations of impropriety around the relationship, but said it was aware of the press reports.

The regulator does not prohibit relationships between barristers, but warns that they can be in breach of the code of conduct if they "compromise their professional independence", create a possible conflict of interest, or otherwise bring the legal profession into disrepute.

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EU probes planned merger of Greek airlines


EU probes planned merger of Greek airlines
Houston Chronicle
The Commission, which acts as the 27-country bloc's competition watchdog, said Tuesday it fears "the transaction may lead to price increases and poorer service on several domestic Greek routes out of Athens," where the merged entity would have a ...
EU probes Greek airlines merger - GlobalPostGlobalPost
UPDATE 1-EU regulators deepen probe into Aegean-Olympic takeover bidReuters

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2 bishops kidnapped in Syria released

In this undated combo picture released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Bishop Boulos Yazigi of the Greek Orthodox Church, left, and John Ibrahim of the Assyrian Orthodox Church, right, who were kidnapped Monday, in the northern province of Aleppo, Syria. the fate of two priests who were kidnapped Monday in the northern province of Aleppo is still unknown. It was not immediately clear who abducted Bishop Boulos Yazigi of the Greek Orthodox Church and John Ibrahim of the Assyrian Orthodox Church, said Greek Orthodox Bishop Tony Yazigi. He said the two bishops were abducted from the village of Kfar Deal, and their driver was killed by the gunmen. (AP Photo/SANA)BEIRUT (AP) — A church official says two bishops who were abducted by gunmen while traveling in northern Syria have been released.



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