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Showing posts with label g-20 major economies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label g-20 major economies. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Markets seek direction in wake of G20 pledge, Greek coalition


Globe and Mail

Markets seek direction in wake of G20 pledge, Greek coalition
Globe and Mail
European stocks edge higher on commitment to lower euro zone borrowing costs.

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Eurozone crisis live: Confusion over G20 bid to cut borrowing costs

Reporters briefed that European leaders poised to allow €750bn bailout fund to buy up bonds of crisis-hit governments

8.42am: Talking about Greece, ekathimerini.com is reporting that the democratic left has agreed to join the coalition but won't join the cabinet. We'll have more from Athens later. The news site reports:

The central committee of Democratic Left, which is set to be the junior partner in a three-party coalition government, approved in the early hours of Wednesday a proposal for the leftists to support the new administration but not provide any members for its cabinet.

The meeting ended at 1.30 a.m. after 70 percent of members approved party leader Fotis Kouvelis's proposal that Democratic Left remain out of the cabinet. The party may ask for some figures who are ideologically aligned with Democratic Left, although not members, to join the government.

8.40am: A nice literary allusion that could be applied to the G20, from the managing director of Greek market research company TNS ICAP.

8.28am: Labour leader Ed Miliband has put out his reaction to the G20 plans, or lack of them, for the eurozone.

He is due to speak at the awards for consumer group Which? later, where he'll say that the summit had produced "no progress" on Europe or global employment and growth.

"This G20 summit should have marked a decisive shift towards jobs and growth, which is vital if we are to get deficits down. Unfortunately this has not happened because too many governments, our own included, seem to think more of the same is the answer.

"The result is a summit that appears to offer no progress for Europe and no global plan for jobs and growth. It is a summit of division when the world needs unity. And a summit of inaction when people, in Britain and across the world, are crying out for action."

8.24am: In the debt markets, yields on Spanish 10-year government bonds - essentially the interest rate - have dropped below 7%. They are currently trading at 6.95%. The yield on Italian 10-year debt has dipped below 6% and is currently at 5.84%.

8.20am: Quick look at the markets, which are struggling for direction.

UK FTSE 100: down 0.07%, or 4 points, at 5582
Germany DAX: flat
France CAC 40: up 0.1%
Spain IBEX: up 0.2%
Italy FTSE MIB: up 0.1%

8.04am: The Bank of England publishes minutes from their last meeting this morning, which should shine a light on the debate over whether to introduce more quantitative easing.

Then later, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Markets are hoping that it will step in with a new round of Operation Twist, whereby the Fed sells medium-term bonds and uses the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Here's today's agenda:

• German producer prices for May: 7am
• Italy industrial sales for April: 9am
• UK Bank of England minutes: 9.30am
• UK unemployment figures for May: 9.30am
• Swiss ZEW business confidence for June: 10am
• US Fed interest rate decision: 5.30pm
• Angela Merkel meets Dutch PM Mark Rutte: 6.30pm
• Fed chairman Bernanke holds press conference: 7.15pm

In the debt markets, Germany is selling €5bn of 2-year treasury bills at 11.30am and the UK is selling £5bn of 6-month paper.

7.23am: Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.

There's some confusion this morning over what was agreed at the G20 summit in Mexico to prevent the euro from imploding. Patrick Wintour, who is reporting from the summit, says reporters were briefed that European leaders are set to announce a plan to buy up Italian and Spanish bonds with the €750bn bailout fund, while German officials said nothing had yet been decided.

The FT has a similar story saying Angela Merkel was non-committal about the idea on Monday night, adding: "Officials said Ms Merkel had subsequent conversations on the sidelines of the summit which led her interlocutors to believe 'she may be willing to do more'."

The Wall Street Journal says the Spanish prime minister is trying to persuade his peers to allow the €100bn bank bailout to be lent directly to the banks.

The official communique meanwhile was typically vague. Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research notes:

What is apparent is that there was not the normal briefing where everyone gets the same story, which suggests that they still haven't got a clue what they are actually going to do.


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Monday, June 18, 2012

To end this impasse, let us tap Europe's vast wealth | Polly Toynbee

Faced with a crisis almost as grave as war, social democrats must act in concert to end the toxic policies of austerity

All these words are Greek: crisis, chaos and apocalypse. Or, if the world was cleverer, this could still end in catharsis, and renewal. Market furies tear the heart out of Europe, first Greece, then Spain, Italy and France, and finally the world; so even beleaguered pro-Europeans give the euro's survival no more than a 50:50 chance. If all that's left is a tight little German and northern league, why would the EU stay together after that? The guttering flame of the European idea is hard to keep alight in this hurricane.

But it's not impossible. Look how decisively the French and Greek electorates reject the austerity economics that is killing growth in most of the EU. The tide of opinion is turning when even Standard & Poor's at last admits: "Austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating". The policy is tested to destruction. A patched-together coalition between old parties that brought Greece to its knees through corruption and cronyism only won because its pledge to get a better deal was marginally more convincing to a despairing electorate, short of food, medicine and fuel. But anti-austerity was the only message. Either default on debt or repay only once solid growth makes it feasible: more austerity leads back down the death spiral vortex.

If the new government gets no genuine relaxation of impossible bailout terms, more cuts may propel such protests that the radical Syriza will find itself in power shortly, after its meteoric rise from nowhere. How comfortable to be opposing, just a hair's breadth from power. It was not sour grapes (courtesy of Aesop, another Greek) for Syriza leaders to claim this is where they prefer to be for now.

In Britain gleeful anti-Europeans gloat "I told you so", with smirks on the faces of Norman Lamont, Nigel Farage and the rest. David Cameron on Monday yet again wagged his finger emptily at Germany, telling it to intervene, a bizarre stance from one who shares its austerity policy. In all the years of behaving badly to its neighbours, Britain has never been so ignored or so irrelevant to the key decisions taken by its vital trading partners. Despite sad reminders of Gordon Brown's worst traits at last week's Leveson hearings, compare and contrast Cameron's vacuity with Brown's finest hour: when no other leader stepped up, Brown galvanised the world to take fast action with a market-stunning £1trn rescue at the G20 in 2009. Cameron couldn't galvanise a flea circus.

Instead, his party wallows in a European crisis that will blow back at Britain. True, the blizzard will conveniently white out George Osborne's egregious economic errors, the zero growth and double-dip. Roll on a referendum, urge the Europhobes, but in or out of what? Their fantasy is that Britain can slip away to the European economic area on pick'n'mix terms, undercutting EU currencies and irksome trade rules: why wouldn't Europe wreak revenge for our obnoxious behaviour all these years?

At today's G20 no leader emerged to take the initiative, Barack Obama being deep in an election campaign, from which he may not return, and each country protecting its interests. Germany could save Greece, but not Spain and Italy. Germany could let the European Central Bank act as a firewall guarantee. It could allow inflation to ease the path, and embrace growth before debt. But faced by a choice between breaking the euro and abandoning German orthodoxy, Angela Merkel and her party would rather let most of Europe go: she has failed to warn her people of the enormous costs of that. Neither Obama nor Cameron could be seen to pay to save Europe – nor China, nor anyone else; and yet they all know the far greater cost of global collapse.

This is a return to the 1930s, Keynesians say: look where that leads politically. Or is this a dark echo of the first world war? Civilised countries thought protectionism and trade wars could never lead to bloodshed. But the world is no saner now than it was then. Countries pulling up drawbridges, undercutting and cheating each other with worsening relations in times of declining living standards, can still lead to European bloodletting. Look at the venom – the sneering at Greeks, Italians and Spaniards, lazy southern layabouts: blaming ineffective governments nastily morphs into blaming whole nations of inferior people. Germans are again represented as spike-helmeted automatons, bidding for a fiscal and political union that would reduce proud nations to town councils under Berlin's thumb. Germany v Greece on the Euro 2012 football field may be a comic coincidence this week, but nobody should dismiss the seriousness of the EU's "never again" founding purpose.

Europe's impasse needs new purpose, after the old economic certainties helped cause this cataclysm. Even if the EU scrapes through, that's not enough. What then? François Hollande and Ed Miliband are calling a summit of social democrats this autumn to challenge dogma and forge a growth and jobs programme for construction and investment. Keynesian parties need to draw Europe-wide strength and credibility by working together. Hollande proposes a £120bn redirection of EU funds to an emergency growth programme: he should throw in the CAP, too.

Abolishing tax havens, co-ordinating fair tax instead of destructive competition, ending secrecy of wealth and property ownership, cutting defence overspending by France, Britain and Greece: politically hard decisions are easier if social democrats can inspire people with the value of standing together, not falling apart.

The G20 may prove that there is no averting imminent calamity. But the rightwing austerians who caused it will have no solutions for its repair. Europe is phenomenally rich, yet has hardly tapped its own wealth. These governments are still in denial over the real depth of the emergency.

Germany imposed a solidarity tax to pay for reunification, taxing incomes, wealth and property. Britain has barely touched the abundance of its vast undertaxed wealth. This government can never rally the nation to unite in a crisis after hitting the weak hardest, with wealthy lifestyles remaining unchanged. The coalition may well fall apart sooner than expected: Labour needs to stand more ready than has yet been the case, with a radical alternative – easier to do as part of a Europe-wide appeal. In wartime bonds are issued to finance a national emergency by encouraging (or, from the rich, coercing) investment in a time of crisis. What Europe needs to escape slump is a war footing – but this time without the war.


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Obama: Greek election results offer 'positive prospect' for recovery

US president adopts more supportive tone than most other world leaders, but main decisions unlikely to be made at G20 summit

Barack Obama hailed the Greek election results as offering a glimmer of hope in a eurozone crisis that is threatening to undermine the US recovery and the president's chances of re-election.

In his first comment on Sunday's election, Obama told reporters at the G20 summit in Mexico on Monday that the Greek election offered a "positive prospect".

That endorsement went much further than most other world leaders, particularly European ones, who have been much more circumspect in their reaction.

The White House has been watching in desperation at European leaders have bounced from summit to summit, leaving the crisis unresolved.

Although Obama needs a quick fix to the eurozone crisis, European leaders cautioned against expecting any solutions to emerge from the G20 summit, the gathering of the most advanced economies.

The euro crisis is acting a drag on business and consumer confidence in the US but the Obama administration has opted against injecting into Europe the billions of dollars that might help stabilise it, partly because it would be near impossible to get such a package through Congress.

Obama, at a meeting with Mexican president Felipe Calderon, who is hosting the summit, told reporters it was going to be a busy day and a half: "The world is very concerned about the slowing of growth that has taken place."

He added: "Now is a time as we've discussed to make sure that all of us do what's necessary to stabilise the world financial system, to avoid protectionism."

The White House issued a bland statement on Sunday welcoming the Greek vote and hoping its government would make "timely progress" on the economic challenges it faces. European leaders want Greece to make deep spending cuts in return for a rescue package.

Obama, who had spent the weekend having a break in Chicago, adopted a more positive tone on Monday than the White House statement from Sunday. "I think the election in Greece yesterday indicates a positive prospect for not only them forming a government, but also them working constructively with their international partners in order that they can continue on the path of reform and do so in a way that also offers the prospects for the Greek people to succeed and prosper," Obama said.

"And we are going to be working under your leadership and with our European partners, and with all countries, to make sure that we're contributing so that the economy grows, the situation stabilises, confidence returns to the markets and, most importantly we're giving our people the chance if they work hard to succeed and do well."

The summit will allow the Europeans to take "one important step in a series of steps that are going to be required to continue to improve global economic prospects," he said.

In spite of Obama's words, the main decisions are unlikely to be made at the summit but at meetings later in Europe, where there is remaining scepticism about whether Greece might yet have to leave the eurozone and also about the future of other members, such as Spain.


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Mexican President Calderon praises Obama's immigration move

LOS CABOS, Mexico – President Obama said the outcome of the Greek elections suggested a “positive prospect” for the teetering European nation’s hopes of avoiding further economic turmoil.





G20's relief at Greek pro-bailout vote is short-lived


Globe and Mail

G20's relief at Greek pro-bailout vote is short-lived
San Jose Mercury News
LOS CABOS, Mexico -- World leaders relief at Greek voters rejection of an anti-bailout government that could have forced the country s exit from the European ...
Greek election result spares leaders real-time fiscal firefightingGlobe and Mail
Obama calls Greek elections 'positive'Fox News
Sigh of relief at G20 summit over Greek electionCBS News

all 2,738 news articles »

Leaders of the Group of 20 nations gather in Mexico

With the pro-bailout New Democracy party¿s victory in Greece, leaders of the world¿s biggest economies averted the worst of possible scenarios heading into their annual summit Monday.





Greek election result spares leaders real-time fiscal firefighting


Globe and Mail

Greek election result spares leaders real-time fiscal firefighting
Globe and Mail
If anti-bailout forces had prevailed in Greece, summit agenda could have been hijacked by the ensuing crisis.
Sigh of relief at G20 summit over Greek electionFox News
Greek results on G20 agendaABC Online

all 1,886 news articles »

IMF leader: G20 must address 'mission critical' to restore investor confidence ...


BBC News

IMF leader: G20 must address 'mission critical' to restore investor confidence ...
Washington Post
LOS CABOS, Mexico — Finger-length and emerald-green, the lawns of time-share condos and all-inclusive resorts seem to gleam in the bright sun as the surf rolls gently against the white-sand beaches of Los Cabos. Sometimes the only noise is the ruffling ...
EU/IMF bailout forms basis for Greek growth and jobs-EUReuters
IMF leader: G20 must restore investor confidenceHouston Chronicle
Gillard touches down in Mexico ahead of G20 summitABC Online

all 292 news articles »

Saturday, June 16, 2012

French, German leaders hold 'fruitful' talks on Greece

French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday held "constructive and fruitful" phone talks on the crisis in Greece and the eurozone, Hollande's office said.

They exchanged "views on the situation in Greece, the preparations for a G20 summit and the next European Council meeting on June 28 and 29," a statement said.


Gillard call for Europe to back embattled banks


The Age

Gillard call for Europe to back embattled banks
Sydney Morning Herald
Prime Minister Julia Gillard and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak have issued a joint statement urging "resolute action" by Europe to address uncertainty in the global economy. Ms Gillard and Mr Lee will be among the G20 nation leaders to gather in ...
G20 leaders to meet in shadow of Europe crisisReuters
Canada adds voice to common bank-deposit insurance plan for euro zoneGlobe and Mail
EU Faces Pressure from Peers to Boost Crisis Measures at G20Wall Street Journal
China Daily -CBC.ca -The Guardian
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Friday, June 15, 2012

David Cameron to discuss Greek crisis with G20 leaders before summit

European leaders will consider any emergency measures that may need to be taken in the wake of Greek elections on Sunday

David Cameron will hold a video conference call on Friday afternoon with European leaders attending the G20 summit in Mexico next week in a bid to forge a common position on the eurozone crisis.

The leaders will consider any emergency measures that may need to be taken when the markets open on Monday in the wake of the Greek elections on Sunday.

It is likely that the call will focus on what the central banks can do to stabilise financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the Greek election leads to a victory for the anti-austerity parties.

The call will be held between Cameron, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, the French president, François Hollande, the Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and the two leaders of the European Union.

A Downing Street spokesman tried to play down the significance of the call saying it was a routine discussion of the summit agenda.

Cameron's official spokesman said the call was a long-scheduled opportunity for the leaders to discuss the issues on the G20 agenda.

Asked about the Greek elections – triggered by the failure to form a government in Athens after polls last month – Cameron's spokesman said: "It is a matter for the Greek people and clearly they have to go through their democratic processes.

"But we need to see an end to the uncertainty which is damaging the European economy and damaging our economy."

He added: "We need to see action to deal with the problems in the eurozone sooner rather than later. The prime minister has talked on a number of occasions of the chilling effect the situation in the eurozone is having on our economy and the global economy."

The chancellor, George Osborne, warned in his Mansion House speech on Thursday night of dire consequences if Greece were to leave the eurozone without an ambitious plan to deal with the fallout.

Osborne again suggested that a Greek exit might be the only way to force fundamental reform in the currency area.

But allowing the struggling country to leave before measures were in place to contain contagion would be the "worst case for everybody", he said.

The comments came after interest rates on Spanish bonds hit fresh highs – sparking fears about the country's ability to service its debts.


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