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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Greek election: Syriza says 'hope has won' – live updates

Leftwing anti-austerity party on course for governmentExit polls say Syriza has a lead of more than 12% Syriza says ‘hope has won’ Result could plunge Europe deeper into crisisAlexis Tsipras hopes to replace Antonis Samaras as prime ministerGuardianWitness: your hopes and fears for the future of GreeceGuardian briefing on the Greek election 5.43pm GMT Syriza gets close to declaring victory by tweeting that “hope has won” following the release of those stunning exit polls.Η ελπίδα νίκησε! #syriza #ekloges2015 5.39pm GMT A third exit poll by Kapa appears to confirm that Syriza is heading for a big win.(1 of 2) Here's how the Kapa #ExitPoll translates to seats in parliament #Greece #ekloges Syriza 148-154 ND 70-78 G.Dawn 16-20 Potami 16-19(2 of 2) KKE 15-17 Pasok 12-14 Ind.Grks 10-12 GPap 0-8 #Greece #ekloges #ExitPoll -Kapa Research 5.37pm GMT Another exit polls suggest Syriza could have secured more than 40% of the vote.Pulse Exit Poll for Action24 (1 of 2) SYRIZA 34.5 – 40.5 ND 24.5 - 30.5 To Potami 5 - 8 Golden Dawn 4.5 - 7.5 #Greece #ekloges2015Pulse Exit Poll for Action24 (2 of 2) PASOK 4 - 7 KKE 3.5 - 6.5 Independent Greeks 2.5 - 5.5 Kinima 1.5 - 4.5 #Greece #ekloges2015 5.28pm GMT Exit polls suggest that that Syriza is likely to get between 146 - 155 in the 300-seat parliament, Helena Smith reports from Athens. Giorgos Kyrtos, veteran political commentator - and now Euro MP for the conservative New Democracy party, is calling it a “historic moment” for the radical leftists. There were scenes of jubilation at Syriza’s main electoral office in central Athens. #ekloges2015 #Syriza exit poll results are announced 5.23pm GMT The Skai TV exit poll predicts that Syriza could secure 155 seats, according to the Guardian’s Helena Smith. This would amount to a massive rejection of austerity and mean that Syriza could govern on its own avoiding a potentially tricky coalition with one of the other parties. #Greece Syriza on course to win absolute majority with as many as 155 seats, according to SKAI TV.#Greece "this is a sweeping victory, we believe we'll have a clear mandate to form a government," Syriza MP tells Skai TVSkai TV exit poll #Greece #ekloges2015 #exitpoll Syriza 36-39 ND 24-27 Potami 6,5-8,5 GDawn 6-8 KKE 5-7 Pasok 4-6 Ind.Grks 2,5-4,5 GPap 2-3 5.18pm GMT More exit polls suggest something of a Syriza landslide.Kapa Research Exit Poll for @tovimagr (1 of 2) SYRIZA 33.5 – 37.5 ND 25 - 28 Golden Dawn 5.5 - 7.5 To Potami 5 - 7 #Greece #ekloges2015Skai exit poll. #Greece #ekloges2015 erupts in Syriza tent as landslide result predicted by exit poll 5.12pm GMT The exit polls suggest Syriza could win as many as 158 seats enough for an outright majority. But they could also fall just short of 150 seats in the 300 seat parliament. Either way the poll points to a big win for Syriza, but this is still just a projection at this stage. Erdrutschsieg für #Syriza #GreekElections 5.06pm GMT The exit polls suggest Syriza could secure an outright majority. First exit polls from #GreekElections . #ekloges2015. Syriza 39% 5.03pm GMT The first exit polls suggest a big win for Syriza. One gave the party a lead of more than 12%.EXIT POLL SYRIZA 35,5-39,5 ND 23-27 Potami 6,4-8 Golden Dawn 6,4-8 KKE 4,7-5,7 PASOK 4,2-5,2 Ind.Greeks 3.5-4.5 Kinima 2,2-3,2 #ekloges2015Combined exit polls: SYRIZA 35.5-39%; ND 23-27; Potami 6.4-8; GD 6.4-8; KKE 4.7-5.7; PASOK 4.2-5.2; Ind Grks 3.5-4.5 #ekloges2015 5.00pm GMT That’s it, voting over. Now for the exit polls. 5.00pm GMT Syriza is reported to be lining up Costas Karamanlis – a critic of austerity and a former Conservative prime minister as Greece’s new president. 4.53pm GMT Beware Greeks bearing exit polls. Wait for the real results. 4.45pm GMT Beware the exit polls, not just the leaked ones, warns the BBC’s Yannis Koutsomitis.#Greece | 20 mins to poll close and official exit polls release. Note: Exit polls are not results. Have failed miserably in previous elex.Exit polls from Greece at 7pm local time (5pm UK). They should be taken with a pinch of salt, as should even-less-reliable rumours/leaks.People following #ekloges2015 in #Greece remember: many suburban & rural areas not always covered in most exit polls, yet they matter most! 4.32pm GMT There are set to be four main exit polls just after the polls close in half an hour, according to Manos Giakoumis, chief analyst at the thinktank Macro Polis. 4 exit polls @ 5pm (UK). The main from 5 TV channels, Macedonia Uni 4 Skai, Pulse 4 Action24 & Kapa Research 4 ToVima. #Greece #ekloges2015Some "exit poll" leaks show a SYRIZA-ND difference 10% and a battle for 3rd. Real exit polls out in 30mins #greeceElections #ekloges2015Exit polls in 40 mins might clear up some of speculation about Greek elections but they have been off in recent years #Greece #ekloges2015 4.20pm GMT Anecdotal evidence suggests that New Democracy – the dominant force in prime minister Antonis Samaras’ outgoing coalition – is haemorrhaging votes to Syriza, writes Helena Smith in Athens.The pattern of voting looks to be following May’s European election, which saw Syriza topping the poll. Several Greeks have told the Guardian they would be switching vote. 3.59pm GMT With just over an hour to go before polls close, this chart helps explain how the percentage of the vote necessary to secure a majority varies depending on how many of the smaller parties reach the 3% threshold necessary to secure a seat (see earlier). Greece exit polls out at 5pm (London time). Worth keeping this @MacroPolis_gr chart with % needed for maj. to hand 3.48pm GMT The New Democracy party have demanded a judicial inquiry into leaked early exit polls that supposedly put Syriza as much as 12 or even 14 points ahead, according to the English website of the Kathimerini newspaper.This does give the exit poll a little more credence, but it should still be treated with caution, according to Jon Henley in Athens. Nea Dimokratia denounces exit poll leaks of up to 14% lead of SYRIZA.No smoke without fire #ekloges2015 #ekloges #greeceElections 3.42pm GMT Germany is bracing itself for the results, writes Louise Osborne in Berlin. The country’s biggest daily, Bild, claims Syriza no longer wants conditions to be dictated by Europe, and that therefore “all that remains for the Greeks is an exit from the eurozone and a return to the drachma”. 3.36pm GMT While we enter the final 90 minutes of polling why not check to see if your finances are any more robust than Greece’s? 3.33pm GMT Monitors representing Syriza in polling stations around Athens say they are very exited by unofficial exit polls that give the leftists a much bigger lead than thought, writes Helena Smith.As the vote is still under way no one wants to go on the record – quite yet. But reports are being confirmed by analysts, who put the difference at as much as 12 percentage points (38-26) – an outcome that would likely give Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party an outright majority in Athens’ 300-seat House.Greece’s incumbent prime minister, Antonis Samaras, is apparently hunkered down in his office with top cadres from his conservative New Democracy party. The mood in the New Democracy camp according to the Greek media “is anything but good”. 3.20pm GMT Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was in a buoyant mood as he cast his vote, writes Jon Henley in Athens. Surrounded by a throng of reporters and chanting supporters, Tsipras declared election day to be the “last step of the Greek people towards regaining social cohesion and dignity”. Europe’s future was “not the future of austerity – it is the future of democracy, solidarity and cooperation,” he added.Tsipras: "Today is the last step of the Greek people towards regaining their dignity" 3.15pm GMT It is still far too early to start predicting results, but early leaked exit polls suggest a good night ahead for Syriza. One puts Syriza 6% ahead, another give the party a staggering 12% lead. #Greece Far left Syriza heading to poss LANDSLIDE. Random exit polls giving it 12 pt lead, analysts tell me #ekgloges2015By which is meant: ignore any exit polls "leaked" before 7pm Athens time. I certainly will, as always #ekloges2015#Greece | RIA Novosti claims to have early exit polls: Take it with a pinch of salt | #ekloges2015 2.58pm GMT Confused by how the Greek election system works? The Irate Greek explains a rule of thumb over what percentage of the vote will be enough to secure a majority of the 300 parliamentary seats. It all depends on how many of the smaller parties reach the 3% threshold necessary to secure a seat. To determine the percentage of nationwide votes needed to secure a majority, you should deduct from 100% the percentage of valid votes obtained by parties who did not reach the 3% threshold and multiply the percentage left by 0.404.If parties who did not reach the 3% threshold obtained 8.5% of all valid votes nationwide, the minimum percentage of votes needed to secure a majority in parliament is (100%-8.5%)*0.404 = 36.96%If all parties running get into parliament, the threshold for outright victory is just over 40%, but the majority drops depending on how many votes go to parties that fail to clear the 3% entry threshold If, for example, 5% of the vote goes to parties that fail to get into parliament, the margin for victory could be around 38%. If there is no outright winner, president Karolos Papoulias gives the leader of the biggest party a mandate to form a coalition or gain agreement for a minority government. Should this fail, the exploratory mandate is handed to the second party, and then to the third. If the parties cannot agree, the president holds a final meeting with party leaders. If they still cannot agree, he appoints a caretaker government to call new elections. 2.36pm GMT Welcome to our live coverage of the final stages of an election that could have profound consequences for Greece and the future of Europe.The main contest is between the frontrunner Syriza – the leftwing opposition party led by Alexis Tsipras, and the governing centre-right New Democracy party led by prime minister Antonis Samaras. Continue reading...