Next year will bring either vigorous recovery or a return to global recession. We look at the factors that will affect the outcome of a pivotal 12 monthsThe world economy enters 2015 at a fork in the road. One track leads to the self-sustaining vigorous recovery that policy makers have sought in vain ever since the financial crisis erupted in 2007. Lower oil prices get consumers spending and businesses investing. Memories of the biggest recession since the 1930s are finally banished. The rest of the world starts to look like a revitalised US.The other track leads back towards recession. Problems that have been stored up since 2008-09 can be contained no longer. A financial crisis erupts in the emerging markets. China has a hard landing. Greece sparks off a fresh phase to the eurozone’s struggle for survival. Deflation sets in. The rest of the world starts to look like Japan. Here, then, are five issues that will define a make-or-break year. Continue reading...
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