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Thursday, June 5, 2014

European Central Bank: Markets poised for rate cuts and stimulus measures

Rolling coverage of business and financial news, as Mario Draghi and the ECB's governing council gather in Frankfurt

Will the ECB act to stimulate the eurozone?

The ECB's options

Traders predict 'a crazy hour' in the markets

Q&A: What are negative interest rates?

10.39am BST

The latest Greek unemployment data is out, and confirms that the country is still racked by desperately high joblessness.

Elstat reports that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March 2014 was 26.8%. It also revised up the joblessness rate for February to 26.9%, from a previous estimate of 26.5%.

10.21am BST

The annual eurozone retail sales growth figure of 2.4 per cent is the highest in eight years.

10.19am BST

Deflation expectations, clearly. RT @moved_average: EURO ZONE APR RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 1.2%E pic.twitter.com/1z5F0WyNLl

10.13am BST

Just in -- eurozone retail sales rose in April, and by more than expected.

Eurostat reports that the volume of retail sale increased by 0.4% month-on-month in April, beating forecasts of just 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, sales volumes were up by 2.4%.

The fact that inflation is low is not, by itself, bad; with low inflation, you can buy more stuff.

9.59am BST

It is "inevitable" that the ECB will act today, says analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets.

They point out that eurozone inflation slumped last month; at just 0.5%, it's a long way from the ECB's target.

The third month of pronounced undershooting of inflation in May this time clearly visible in core inflation as well as ongoing falls in credit and high bank lending interest rates in the southern periphery, the case for action is irrefutable.

A new, conditional LTRO akin to the BoEs Funding-for-Lending scheme and BoJs Stimulating Lending Facility seems likely, tying the provision of 4-year fixed-rate funding to new credit provision to the private sector.

9.52am BST

There's been a lot of chatter about the negative interest rates on eurozone banks, but what would that mean?

The logic is that banks will be keener to lend to customers if they are forced to pay to leave their money in the ECB's electronic vaults instead. At present, the deposit rate is 0.0%.

9.43am BST

So, what might the ECB do today?

9.27am BST

Back to the big story of the day: whether or not the European Central Bank takes decisive action today to drag the eurozone away deflation and stagnation (see opening post for the details)

With the governing council hard at work in Frankfurt, the WSJ's Richard Barley points out that it will be 'unprecedented' for any major central bank impose a negative interest rate on commercial banks who lodge cash with it.

Some thoughts ahead of today's @ecb meeting: 1. Negative depo rate may be priced in, but will still be unprecedented for major central bank.

2. On credit easing, the devil will be in the detail. What lending is @ecb targeting, and how will looser policy be transmitted?

3. Watch out for @ecb's new staff projections. 2014 inflation has to be revised down, but what happens to the 2016 number?

4. It will still be the case for @ecb that what Draghi says is more important than what he does. Door should be left open to more easing.

9.18am BST

Britain's car industry has recorded its longest ever period of sales growth, after posting a 7.7% increase in new vehicle sales last month.

That breaks the previous record set in the mid-1980s, according to the SMMT's monthly survey of the sector.

9.04am BST

In the UK, the Brazilian real has been flying out of foreign exchange outlets faster than Raheem Sterling as World Cup fever mounts.

Travelex has run out of the currency at Heathrow and Manchester airports, after demand rose more than 1,000%.

Meanwhile the Post Office, which offers travel money at 11,500 branches nationwide, says it won't have the Real until the weekend.

8.45am BST

Speculation of a takeover has pushed shares in Smith & Nephew, the UK medical equipment supplier, up 4% this morning.

Overnight, Bloomberg reported that US rival Medtronic is considering a bid for S&N.

8.44am BST

This morning's tumble means ASOS's shares have more than halved in value since February:

A profits warning often causes a company's share price to fall. ASOS has crashed 37% today, been on slide since Feb. pic.twitter.com/25otchML7U

8.40am BST

Perhaps Britain's housing boom isn't running out of steam after all....

Housing demand is still strong and continues to be supported by a strengthening economic recovery.

Strong Halifax house price 3.9% vs 0.7%e M/M....Y/Y 8.7% vs 7.5%e

8.29am BST

Asos's shocker of a profits warning has hit high street and online retailers across the stock market.

Sports Direct are down 1.9%, Next dipped by 1.4%, SuperGroup has shed 4.5% and Ocado has fallen by 3%.

8.23am BST

Shares in ASOS, the online fashion retailer, have suddenly fallen out fashion after it shocked the stock market with a profits warning.

The stock tumbled 40% at the start of trading, wiping around £1.5bn off its value, after it cautioned investors that its profit margins will be around 4.5%, not 6.5% as expected.

Our profit performance for this financial year is not what we had hoped for due to an unusual combination of factors...

#ASOS down 25%. When a stock at 100 times P/E disappoints....

8.12am BST

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is also meeting today, but it'll be playing second fiddle to the ECB.

The BoE isn't expected to change borrowing costs today -- the minutes of the meeting, released in 2 weeks time, will show whether any MPC members are ready to raise rates.

8.05am BST

"The prospect of a crazy hour in financial markets is high", warns IG's Chris Weston.

That's because while investors have priced in an interest rate cut, there's much more uncertainty over what 'unconventional' measures might be announced -- or simply hinted at -- in Draghi's press conference.

Mario Draghi holds all the cards. Dont underestimate the ECB presidents power of surprise, and after guiding the market into pricing in action over the last month, Mr Draghi could easily say something that is new news and needs to be in the price.

8.00am BST

Mario Draghi stoked our expectations at last month's press conference by declaring that the governing council was 'comfortable' with acting in June, once its staff had prepared the latest economic forecasts.

The euro has weakened by two cents against the US dollar since then, in anticipation of action. Which means we could see some wild swings if the ECB doesn't take decisive action today.

"If they don't deliver, do we get a pop towards $1.40?"

7.51am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of events across the financial markets, the global economy, the eurozone and business.

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READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com