The refugee crisis engulfing Europe is putting David Cameron's Conservative government into an impossible position. It may even trigger Britain leaving the European Union. Long before the refugee crisis erupted, migration was one of the biggest factors in how people were going to vote in the EU referendum. In May this year, ING Senior Economist James Knightley warned that the 3.8 million people who voted for the UK Independence Party in the General Election could be a massive threat to Britain's membership. One of the central planks in UKIP's manifesto is to stop the flow of migrants – whether immigrants, refugees, or asylum seekers – coming to the UK. Furthermore, the party blames Britain's membership in the EU for opening the doors to mass migration. ING said we should not underestimate how much this could translate into a Brexit. A Eurobarometer public opinion survey earlier this year showed that just 23% of Britons have a “generally positive” view of the EU, with only Greece having a lower rating (22%). Furthermore, immigration topped the list of voters' concerns in the monthly Economist/Ipsos MORI poll, in which people were asked: “What do you see as the most important issue facing Britain today?” Immigration/immigrants was the top answer at 37%, with the economy on 33%. Cameron may have the support of big businesses, who want to stay in the EU, but immigration is bigger with voters. On top of that, critics are saying Cameron's pro-EU support is in tatters after he told business leaders to "shut up" about speaking in favour of Britain staying part of the 28 nation bloc. He is worried that if EU officials believe his business supporters ultimately favour staying in the union it will hurt his ability to renegotiate the country's pact with the EU (because they know he will ultimately be forced to go along with his supporters). WHY THE REFUGEE CRISIS WILL SPELL THE END FOR CAMERON Last week, David Cameron bowed to immense pressure for Britain to take on more refugees from Syria, after the now iconic picture of the body of a drowned three-year-old Syrian boy was published across the world. Today, he will outline how the government plans to resettle more refugees. The United Nations warned in July that more than four million Syrians have become refugees over the last 10 months. Cameron said today he will allow another 20,000 Syrian refugees into Britain, second only to Germany which is taking 35,000. Cameron is damned if he does let in more refugees, and damned if he doesn't: * Those who are scared of more migration will see this as the norm for the EU – being forced to take more people in. * Those who sympathize with the refugees will see it as not enough. Cameron's government pledged, prior to the General Election, to cut net migration by "tens of thousands." Yet the Office for National Statistics revealed last month that in the year to March, net migration (the difference between those leaving and entering the UK) has already hit an all-time high. If he brings in more refugees, this could drive net migration higher than it was under the last Labour government. UKIP leader Nigel Farage said last month that the "figures reflect a 'Borderless Britain' and total impotence of the British government." Furthermore, Cameron risks his own party politicians defecting to UKIP, and with it voters for immigration curbs and to leave the EU. The Conservatives have just a 12 seat majority in the House of Commons, so any defections would be a huge blow. Citi said that some anti-Europe Conservative MPs could defect to UKIP in the runup to the referendum, which could wreck the government's slim majority: If five or six Conservative MPs defected to UKIP during or after an EU referendum – perhaps in protest at a perceived inadequate deal for the UK – then the Conservatives would lose their parliamentary majority. That would not trigger a rerun of the EU referendum, but might throw the government back into the minority government/hung parliament scenarios that seemed likely before the Conservatives' surprise election win. So,really, how this plays out is out of Cameron's hands. At every point, he faces alienating voters and Tory party members, and in turn risks a big, fat exit from the EU. Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: How billionaire Michael Jordan makes and spends his money
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