Growth in Germany remained steady while France and Italy slowedUK services growth slows as hiring hits 16-month lowAthens stock market in the red again, banks drop furtherOil prices rise for second day, dollar at 3-month highEx-BOE’s Bean: UK’s official statistics out of date 11.34am BST The International Monetary Fund’s board has been told to delay any move to add the yuan to its benchmark currency basket until after September 2016. That’s the recommendation given by the Washington-based organisation’s staff in a report that showed the Chinese currency lagged other major currencies in in terms of meeting key financial benchmarks.The report comes after Beijing made a major diplomatic push for the yuan to be added to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket as part of its long-term strategic goal of reducing dependence on the dollar. 11.23am BST A UK rate rise does appear to be getting closer, judging by the Bank of England’s recent rhetoric. Citi economist Michael Saunders says: We expect no change in either Bank Rate or QE from the MPC on Thursday. The MPC’s core policy message is likely to be in line with the governor’s recent speech, namely that MPC tightening is on the horizon but probably not imminent. The meeting may well feature the first split vote since last December.Some MPC rhetoric – including that from the governor – is hinting that a rate rise is getting closer, and that as inflation rises around the turn of the year this should become more evident. Not all Committee members agree, with the Bank’s chief economist being one of the more vocal dovish voices.Mood music for a rate rise has become louder in recent weeks, underscored by the previously-reputed MPC dove David Miles saying that an interest rate hike should come ‘soon’. And the minutes from the 8 July meeting pointed out that, absent Greece-related concerns, the decision to raise rates was becoming ‘more finely balanced’ for ‘a number’ of members. Now that Greek risks have receded, and the insights from updated forecasts will be on the table, that could well be enough for a hawk or two (perhaps Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty) to pull the trigger.That said, we do not think that the majority will vote for a rate hike until Q1 next year. One of the main reasons is that currently, with headline inflation at zero, a rate rise is presentationally more difficult than it should be in 16Q1. At that point we expect inflation to be above 1% as past falls in energy and food prices drop out of the calculation. Continue reading...
 |
| READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com |
