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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Suddenly, Wall Street is obsessed with something that used to be an afterthought

While the world was seemingly at peace — before the financial crisis, war in Eastern Europe, and chaos in the Middle East — Wall Street's masters of the universe could keep geopolitics in the recesses of their mind. No more. Now global unrest has become the central worry of bank executives and hedge fund billionaires alike. It's the new uncertainty slipping into conversations even when money isn't necessarily at play. "Greece is a more a humanitarian issue than an economic one," Mary Callahan Erdoes, JPMorgan Asset Management CEO, said Wednesday at CNBC's Delivering Alpha Conference. But that humanitarian crisis dominated the conversation on a panel made up of Erdoes, two hedge fund managers, and a California pension fund's chief investment officer. Richard Perry, the billionaire CEO of the hedge fund Perry Capital, said issues in Greece were exacerbated by the country's "adjacencies." By that, more simply, he meant its geography. If the NATO member Greece, for example, turns to an aggressive Russia for help, Russian President Vladimir Putin's influence in an already fragile region will increase. Greece's historical enemy, Turkey, is also becoming more and more authoritarian. Greece is also susceptible to spillover from Syria, Perry argued. The spillover isn't just coming from Syria. Violence in North Africa has sent desperate refugees — and far more dangerous migrants, some fear — to Europe en masse. It's a challenge the EU can take on only if it does it together. But the EU, it seems, can't keep it together. Perry wondered which EU nation "the next Syriza Party come out of," referring to Greece's radical left-wing party. Suffering over time leads to desperation. Desperation leads to radicalism. This is a domino effect that doesn't just end with Greece's bailout. To Perry it seemed Germany forgot about that in its negotiations with Greece — luckily France and Italy did not. Moderator Andrew Ross Sorkin had to turn the conversation back to actionable trades. That's rare on Wall Street, where earnings trump elections and risk is measured and modeled in Excel. It suggests we're living in a particularly dangerous time. The urgency of these kinds of discussions has increased dramatically even since this spring, too, when investors gathered in Las Vegas for SkyBridge Capital's SALT conference. Then, Putin and Russia were a problem for Ukraine. Attendees talked about the conflict as more of a worrisome curiosity than an immediate risk. Now, with Greece on the brink, the specter of Putin is moving west toward a weak and squabbling Europe. Ultimately, it was Perry who nailed the key way this new obsession with geopolitics would change how Wall Street goes about its business. He was talking specifically about China's now sluggish economy and its volatile stock market, but it applies across the board. "The way to play the game is to understand what the Chinese are doing," he said. That goes for oligarchs in Russia and politicians in Germany, fighters in Syria, and protesters in Spain. It's time to pay attention.Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Here's what you get when you order 'Omaha Steaks' in the mail


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT uk.businessinsider.com