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Thursday, July 2, 2015

Here comes the jobs report ... (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

The June jobs report is here.  Ahead of the July 4th holiday, we've got a special jobs Thursday as markets in the US will be closed tomorrow.  Via Bloomberg, here's a quick overview of what Wall Street is looking for: Nonfarm payrolls: +233,000 Unemployment rate: 5.4% Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.2% Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +2.3% The big numbers we'll be keeping an eye on today are the last two: wages.  In May, wages grew 2.3% over the prior year, the most since October 2009 when wages were on the way down during the financial crisis-induced recession.  The Greek drama has taken center stage in markets this week, but recall that just last month we were talking about how wage growth could finally be putting the Fed in position to want to raise interest rates. And so we'll see if the wage momentum continues today and if that conversation changes course again.  In a note to clients ahead of the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said that seasonal adjustments could impact the headline payrolls number, but nevertheless expects an above-consensus jobs gains of 260,000 in June.  Shepherdson added that he expects a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.  Markets have been pre-occupied by the Greece situation all week, but that doesn't mean you can just go ahead and forget about the biggest US economic report of the month.  It's Jobs Day in America, and we'll be here with complete reaction when the numbers cross. Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: 6 scientifically proven features men find attractive in women