Rolling economic and financial news, as financial markets hunker down for the Easter break without a Greek breakthrough in sightVaroufakis hits out over leaksIntroduction: Greek reform plan needs more workFrench finance minister: Plus progrès nécessairesGreek bond yields risingOpposition leader: I’d join unity government 5.54pm BST On the last full trading day before the break, stock markets had a cautious air about them. There was not much in the way of economic news - a slowdown in growth in UK construction, better than expected US weekly jobless claims - but there were plenty of other things to cause concern. A resolution to Greece’s financial problems is still elusive as time runs out, the European Central Bank said it was concerned geopolitical risks could derail the recovery, and a nuclear deal with Iran was yet to be agreed. The final scores showed: 5.05pm BST Over in Athens finance ministry officials are categorically denying any suggestion that Greek representatives said the country would run out of cash by April 9, reports Helena Smith: Denying reports citing European officials privy to Wednesday’s Euro Working Group teleconference, Greek insiders insisted that cash-strapped Athens would be able to cover its €450m loan to the IMF on April 9. “Such reports undermine the European Union institutions and are simply not true,” one official said. “A deliberate rumour campaign is being waged against us.” Officials also rejected reports that international creditors had advised the Greek government to continue dipping into pension funds and pther public assets to keep the debt-stricken economy afloat. 3.52pm BST Over in Italy:*ITALY GOVT SEES 0.7% GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR, OFFICIAL SAYS*ITALY TO KEEP 2015 DEFICIT-TO-GDP TARGET AT 2.6%, OFFICIAL SAYS 3.15pm BST US markets are moving higher in early trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average currently up around 100 points after two days of decline.The rise follows better than expected weekly jobless figures, a day ahead of the non-farm payroll numbers.Goldman: "We expect nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in March, below the consensus forecast of 245k" 3.00pm BST Reuters is reporting that Greece told creditors on a conference call on Wednesday that it would run out of cash on April 9:Greece has told its creditors it will run out of money on April 9, making an appeal for more loans before reforms on which new disbursements hinge are agreed and implemented, but the request was rejected, euro zone officials said.The appeal was made by Athens at a teleconference of euro zone deputy finance ministers on Wednesday organised to assess how far Athens still was from meeting the conditions for unlocking new financial aid. 2.48pm BST Next week, Greece is due to make a debt payment to the IMF, which the country says it will not miss. But there is much more to come after that .....@lindayueh And here the view of BofA-ML pic.twitter.com/EhGlhJ6xph 2.29pm BST The link to the full interview with Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann is here: 2.27pm BST More from Weidmann:Don’t you think that it would be wise to impose capital control measures now? 2.23pm BST ECB board member and president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann has warned that time is running out for Greece, but says it is up to politicians not the central bank to decide who is in the eurozone.Here’s part of his interview, published in Focus on 28 March and just up on the Bundesbank website: 2.16pm BST Janet Yellen, chair of the US Federal Reserve, is currently speaking at a community development research conference. Live feed is here. 1.47pm BST Good news on the US job front ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers.Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell 20,000 to 268,000 last week, down from a revised 288,000 the previous week (the original data showed 282,000 claims) and better than the forecast figure of 285,000. 1.42pm BST Oil has lost its early gains and is now sharply lower on the prospect that nuclear talks with Iran - although dragging on - might ultimately be successful.A deal would release extra crude oil onto the markets where there is already oversupply, and falling demand.Investors seem to have taken the view that there will be a deal and the market is already oversupplied. 1.12pm BST The European Central Bank is worried that the eurozone recovery is more fragile than thought. The downside risks to growth were seen as stemming from geopolitical and political risks inside and outside the euro area. The possibility of weaker than expected investment growth was also considered to be a downside risk. In addition, it was remarked that the materialisation of the baseline scenario depended on a number of assumptions – including the closure of the output gap, a recovery in investment growth, the strengthening of corporate pricing power and a significant pass-through of the fall in oil prices to spending – each of which might be seen as being associated with some downside risks. The question was posed as to whether the strong rebound in the economy, in part also as a result of monetary policy measures, was fully consistent with the underlying financial market assumptions, since expectations of a pronounced recovery in growth appeared not to square easily with interest rates and monetary conditions remaining very accommodative far into the future. At the same time, it could also be argued that, while a constant level of the exchange rate was embedded in the technical assumptions, a further weakening would affect other variables such as export growth and investment activity.The risk of insufficient progress on structural reforms was also highlighted as a major downside risk. In that context, the argument was advanced that the projected pick-up in growth could weaken incentives for governments to pursue the necessary structural reforms and thereby adversely affect potential growth. ECB "Minutes" confirm GC commitment to QE through Sept 2016 ... sees some uncertainty in Staff economic projections ...Shorter ECB accounts: cautiously optimistic about QE effect; no change to QE modalities for now, but (vague) flexbility retained. 1.09pm BST "When planning to kick a can down the path, you must first go to the wire". Ancient Greek proverb... allegedly 12.44pm BST Here’s another handy reminder of the many funding hurdles facing Greece.....Deutsche: basically, even if Greece makes its April 9 IMF payment, no way will it get through May without bailout €. pic.twitter.com/QmWMXDQtlf 12.41pm BST Readers looking for a better grasp of the crisis may enjoy this video:It is either complicity, or idiocy..... and as I believe the people who represented the Troika in Athens are very smart folks I tend to come down on the side of complicity. 12.10pm BST Alexis Tsipras’s visit to Moscow on April 8 has raised concerns that Greece is cuddling up to Russia to force its European creditors to offer more help.Officially, the visit is billed as a chance to build bridges:"#Greece, as a member of the #EU, can be a link and a bridge between the West and #Russia" ~Kremlin official to TassGreece looks to China and Russia for help but cannot get around its euro zone partners http://t.co/h6GYk5T8XZ pic.twitter.com/CsW3SAbMsHLeaked IMF minutes from 2010 confirm what Syriza has always argued: the country was already bankrupt and needed debt relief rather than new loans. This was overruled in order to save the euro and to save Europe’s banking system at a time when EMU had no defences against contagion.Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis rightly calls it “a cynical transfer of private losses from the banks’ books onto the shoulders of Greece’s most vulnerable citizens”. A small fraction of the €240bn of loans remained in the Greek economy. Some 90% was rotated back to banks and financial creditors. The damage was compounded by austerity overkill. The economy contracted so violently that the debt-ratio rocketed instead of coming down, defeating the purpose. 12.00pm BST Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch point out that any Greek default would probably occur in May, if it finds itself unable to meet various repayments due this month:BofA-ML: If Greece is cashless in April, the trouble will come in May pic.twitter.com/K0Wvnx8gPZ 11.32am BST Over in Athens officials say they are flummoxed as to how the government’s proposed reform programme was leaked to the press.Helena Smith reports from Athens:“The leak did not happen through the Greek government,” Gavriel Sakellarides told Mega TV this morning. “I don’t know who put it out, but in no way is this leak through the government. “Remember, though, that Greek officials, exasperated with what they believe to be deliberate obstructiveness by EU/IMF negotiators, had privately threatened to release the full reform plan to prove that the finance ministry had proposed constructive structural reforms – and not the vague proposals that it is so often accused of. HS 11.06am BST Greece’s prime minister has been pressing on with tackling the country’s humanitarian crisis. Greek PM Tsipras heralds 4,500 hirings in health sector, abolition of a 5-euro fee patients pay for outpatient treatment at state hospitals. 11.04am BST In case you missed it, here’s Helena Smith’s take on last night’s (leaked) reform list:Troika gives Greece an ultimatum: sign up to our failed system or else we starve your country http://t.co/xQdQ4n1F7T #grexit 10.30am BST 10.18am BST Over in the Athens parliament, Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has hit out at yesterday’s leaking of his 26-page reform plan.Varoufakis told MPs that the disclosure was not acceptable, and blamed Greece’s creditors for passing the information to the Financial Times.#Varoufakis slams press leaks on EU-Greece negotiations @FT #bailout #eurogroup #Greece- http://t.co/KEUwjNWjok pic.twitter.com/XOm8NxcPB3Varoufakis blames the 'Institutions' for leaks of reform proposals. "Citizens' trust is undermined by such actions" http://t.co/SNcfSvP01v#Greece FinMin Varoufakis claims the 'Institutions' insisted on confidentiality (although he disagreed) yet leaked the reform list. 10.01am BST Heard the one about the bishop, the baroness and the union chief? They’ve all agreed to join a new body to keep Britain’s banking sector on the straight-and-narrow. Related: Bishop and baroness join Banking Standards Board 10.00am BST This chart, via the FT, shows how Greek two-year bond yields have fluctuated wildly in recent months --HT @lindayueh short-dated Greek debt washing machine http://t.co/3Dtq80mbwH pic.twitter.com/VOK6mpCRun 9.50am BST Shares in Marks & Spencer have soared by 5% to a seven year high, as traders welcome the long-awaited turnaround in clothes sales.M&S shares have been rising since Nov, up 4% today and higher than when Bolland became boss 5 years ago. pic.twitter.com/1jF7aURWyFBryan Roberts of Kantar on M&S: "The occasional screamer into top corner doesn't negate smashing ball over the bar for the last four years" 9.48am BST Extra Easter eggs for Marks & Spencer’s staff, after it *finally* reported a rise in clothes sales in four years.The high street retailer grew clothing and household sales by 0.7% in the last quarter, suggesting it has got its online operations under control.The rise in sales comes despite a tricky spring for fashion retailers with the weather much chillier than this time last year.The company credited improvements in style and quality, and positive press coverage, particularly of a suede skirt which has yet to arrive in stores, for the sales turnaround. But performance was also lifted by a return to growth at M&S.com, where sales rose 13.8%, a considerable bounce from the 6% slump over Christmas, when business was affected by problems at the group’s hi-tech distribution centre in Castle Donington. Related: Marks & Spencer clothing sales rise for first time in four years 9.40am BST Just in: Growth in Britain’s construction sector slowed last month as builders wait for next month’s general election to play out.Some construction firms noted that uncertainty related to the forthcoming general election had encouraged clients to delay spending decisions.The latest survey pointed to an element of caution among construction companies in terms of additional job hiring, with overall employment numbers rising at the least marked pace since December 2013. The good news is that the UK Construction #PMI continues to show strong growth. The bad news is the dip from 60.1 to 57.8 #GBP #ukhousing 9.33am BST Have City traders already bunked off for Easter?Europe’s stock markets are moribund this morning, with the main indices either up a bit or down a bit ahead of the bank holidays.There’s a lot of uncertainty still hanging over the market and with events including the US non farm payrolls and a meeting between Tsipras and Putin - which has the potential to see more political grandstanding from Greece – set to occur [on April 8th], there’s going to be a degree of risk mitigation in play. 9.19am BST Former European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso has laid into the new Greek government this morning.Ex-Maoist Barroso didn’t show much sympathy for Greece’s leftist administration, accusing it of inexperience.“It is not helpful if Greece attacks countries that are trying to help it.”“We should remember that there are poorer countries that are lending money to Greece, so to propose a cut to their debt would be certain to receive a no from their partners.” 8.56am BST Greek sovereign debt is weakening this morning as traders fret about the state of its finances.This has driven the yield on two-year bonds up to 23.27%, up from 22.99% last night. [yields rise when prices fall]. 8.53am BST And here’s the quote from French finance minister Sapin: “There is progress with the last [Greek reform] list ... Is there a need for more progress? Yes - in the quantification of the measures.” 8.45am BST Newsflash from France: French finance minister Michel Sapin has warned that Greece’s economic reform plan still needs more detail: 8.43am BST With political tensions rising in Greece, the previous prime minister has suggested he could form an alliance to avoid the country leaving the euro.“If the plan is to keep Greece in the euro area, we will provide support....Exit would signal a total catastrophe.”“I see a lot of words, a lot of theory, a lot of lies, and no action...All of these add up to a big question mark.”“If they ideologically decide they won’t abide by this agreement, then you may have a default.”.#Samaras says he'd join the coalition to keep Greece in #euro http://t.co/odjPrIvh36 pic.twitter.com/9JL1Xmlx0A 8.22am BST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.We’re heading into the Easter break without any signs of a deal to unlock some bailout cash for Greece, despite some encouraging signs on Wednesday.The Hellenic Republic considers itself to be a proud and indefeasible member of the European Union and an irrevocable member of the Eurozone. Yet the viability of that Union, and especially of the common currency, is now in question, in the minds of many Greek citizens as it is in the minds of many among our European partners.The question before us all, as Europeans, is whether the European Union can rise to the challenge before it.....The list is a “very long way from being a basis [for a deal],” a eurozone official said. “They should negotiate in competence and good faith with the institutions first, and then we will see.”“It still lacks detail and substance in many places.”A great deal of scepticism remains about the prospect of any type of deal before the next EU finance ministers meeting on April 24th, which given that Greece needs to make various payments of nearly €2.5bn, between now and then, doesn’t bode well for any sort of resolution this week, or next week, for that matter.Greece threatens to default on IMF says the front page of @TeleFinance. pic.twitter.com/kKc5WMdobm Continue reading...
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