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Monday, October 6, 2014

Eurozone recession fears grow as investor confidence falls again

All the latest business and financial news, as the French prime minister gives a speech in the City Investor morale across the eurozone falls againGerman factory orders tumble 11.26am BST Heads-up. Frances prime minister, Manuel Valls, has begun speaking at the Guildhall in the City of London.Hes started by defending his visit to the cradle of Anglo-Saxon capitalism:*VALLS SAYS IT'S FALSE A SOCIALIST PM SHOULDN'T MEET BANKERSManuel #Valls : "un Premier ministre français socialiste à la City, c'est une révolution" pic.twitter.com/9DJ8fmezui 11.21am BST Over in Greece, the government has declared that it will exit its recession this year, as it outlines its 2015 budget.The country is entering a long period of sustained economic growth rates and primary surpluses that will bring growth in employment, reducing unemployment and improving living standards for all citizens.This is the result of unprecedented sacrifices made by Greek society, households and businesses. These sacrifices must not be wasted.Protestors from the public and private sector are expected to take to the streets later in the day in a mass display of the opposition to the cost-cutting policies that have seen Greeces GDP shrink by over 25% since the outbreak of the crisis. 11.21am BST Now this is serious, the price of coffee has surged by almost 9% today, a two and a half-year high. The benchmark price of Aribica coffee for delivery next March jumped to $2.29 a pound. It was triggered by concerns over Brazils weather, where the usual October rain hasnt arrived (yet)....ICE March coffee price has surged almost 9 per cent to $2.29 a pound, on fears about the weather in Brazil, the world's largest producer 11.05am BST As if wed not had enough bad news already, the FTs Ralph Atkins flags up another sell signal:Top drawer. RT @RalphAtkins: Teatime reading: the next financial apocalypse is imminent because... pic.twitter.com/2NvDILsfMZ 10.34am BST Back in the City, shares in UK web retailer ASOS are up almost 6% on speculation that Amazon might be planning a bid...Asos jumps 5% as analysts suggest growing chance of bid from Amazon http://t.co/M3k23eK9Qs 10.18am BST Further bad news for Europe this morning... investors in Europe are at their most pessimistic in over a year, suggesting that the region is falling into recession. Thats according to research group Sentix, whose index of investor morale tumbled to minus 13.7 this month, the lowest since May 2013.EZ Sentix - Worst number since May 2013 and the index has nose-dived from +10 at the start of the year. -13.7 vs -11 exp & -9.8 lastAs the assessment of the current situation and the 6-month expectations both are now clearly in negative territory, the Sentix indices point currently to a recession in the euro area. More bad news for the eurozone: Sentix Index falls from -9.8 in September to -13.7 in OctoberObviously, the ECBs monetary sword has lost its power in this regard at least for the moment.According to the sentix indices the world economy thus is about to enter a downturn. 9.44am BST Shares in Euro Disney are sliding like Bambi on ice, after the ailing theme park chain announced a 1bn funding deal backed by its US parent company this morning. 9.23am BST Britains car industry has posted its strongest sales figure for a September in a decade.The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that 425,861 new vehicles were registered last month, a 5.6% jump, and the best September since 2004. Demand for the new 64-plate has been boosted by intensifying confidence in the UK economy, with consumers attracted by a wide range of exciting, increasingly fuel-efficient, new cars. In the months since March which saw an 18% jump in registrations the growth has shown signs of levelling off as the market starts to find its natural running rate.425,861 new UK cars registered in the key month of September, a rise of 5.6% and the biggest September figure since 2004 9.01am BST The Russian ruble has fallen to fresh record lows today, hitting the 40 rubles to the US dollar mark. Fears over Western sanctions, the strength of the Russian economy, and recent falls in the oil price have all driven the ruble lower in recent days.Ruble getting rumbled. (Again) pic.twitter.com/5Yjx31GOlb 8.52am BST Heres the agenda of French prime minister Valls visit to London today, from the French embassy. 8.48am BST Just in, Germanys building sector stabilised in September, having contracted in August.The monthly German construction PMI rose to 50.0, showing stagnation, up from 47.7 in August.German construction activity stabilises in September, ending 5-month sequence of contraction. Headline #PMI at 50.0At least the German construction PMI bounced back to 50 in Sept. 8.41am BST European stock markets have risen in early trading, despite the weak German factory orders.Traders are catching up with Friday nights rally on Wall Street, after a strong US jobs report showed the unemployment rate had fallen to just 5.9%.Tesco shares up 1.5%. Soaring like a private jet 8.36am BST There was one flicker of good news in the German data; Julys orders were revised higher:German factory orders drop 5.7% m/m in August (biggest fall since 2009), versus Reuters consensus of a 2.5% drop. July revised up to +4.9 8.26am BST Nick Bubb, retail analyst. says Tescos boardroom reinforcements should cheer the City, as speculation of a cash call swirls:Embattled Tesco shareholders will be pleased to see todays news that two heavyweight non-execs are to join the Tesco Board, but less pleased if they are being softened up for a rights issue... 8.20am BST Meanwhile in the UK, troubled supermarket chain Tesco has boosted its board with two new non-executive directors.The chief executive of food group Compass, and the former boss of IKEA, both join next month, as Tesco struggles to stem its falling sales and the revelation that it overstated profits by £250m. More here. 8.12am BST Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING, has warned that todays German factory orders figures clearly bodes ill for the fourth quarter,.He says that the crisis over Ukraine is one factor, but not the only one: Its not only a Putin fear factor - Germany is also suffering from the weakness of its euro zone peers. 8.08am BST Credit Agricoles Frederik Ducrozet points out German factories also saw weak demand for intermediate goods (materials or product used to create other items):Starting the week with some weak European industrial data for a change. *GERMAN AUG. FACTORY ORDERS DROP 5.7%; MEDIAN EST. 2.5% DECLINEMain source of weakness in German factory data: foreign orders for intermediate goods. Europe supply chain. 8.02am BST This handy graph from FastFT shows how German factory orders plummeted in August, at a rate not seen since the start of 2009: 7.56am BST The 5.7% tumble in German factory suggests growth in the last quarter could be disappointing.Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, cites various geopolitical concerns threatening Germany:The outlook for the German economy is subdued and Im not sure well see growth in the third quarter.Looking forward, there are some signs for worry, from China to weakness in France, to the crisis in Russia. 7.53am BST German industrial orders, a key measure of demand both domestically and abroad, fell sharply in Aug (down 5.7%) on July's figure 7.51am BST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, business and finance.Worrying news from Europe -- German factories have suffered the biggest drop in new orders since the financial crisis was raging five years ago.Valls, whose trip to London had been scheduled before Streets comments, begins his day meeting expatriates in the British capital, followed by one with Prime Minister David Cameron at 10am. He will then give a speech in the City, Londons financial district, and then meet Labour Party leader Ed Miliband before heading back to Paris. Continue reading...


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