The first preview of the European Election results came yesterday from Greece. One week before the elections for the European Parliament, Greeks voted in the first round of the local elections. And the results may very well serve as an indication on how Greece will vote on 25 May but also give some hints on how Europe in general will vote.
The Greek political landscape has been shaped during the last 3 years almost exclusively by EU/Euro zone policy as it affects Greeks. Greece being the first country to taste the tender care of the “Troika” of the EU, the ECB and the IMF, the one that started the crisis ball running. Local peculiarities notwithstanding (and filtered out), the reaction of the Greek society can thus provide meaningful indications as to the trends the European society is following, at least in the crisis affected countries.
What happened on Sunday, 18 May, in Greece is surprisingly unsurprising. The ruling parties that are accused both of being responsible of leading Greece into crisis and for bowing to the “Troika” didn't perform very well, they saw their influence and the percentages drop but not as dramatically as was expected. The main opposition party, the left-wing SYRIZA headed by the “Spitzenkandidat” of the European Left, Alexis Tsipras, didn't fare badly, actually increasing it's percentage. But it failed to produce the expected breakthrough, an increase so strong as to be “game changing”.
The only political party that has serious reasons to celebrate is the Far-Right “Golden Dawn”. Even with half it's MPs in jail accused of violent crimes, with the party not shy to show it's neo-nazi tendencies, it manage to gain double digit results, reaching 15-16%. This, for a party way beyond the usual eurosceptic, nationalistic and anti-immigrant tamer varieties of the far-right that Greece and Europe knew until recently.
If this trend continues until this coming Sunday, and there is no reason to believe that it won't, Greece will send to the European Parliament an important number of openly neo-nazi MEPs, a first for the Hemicycle.
Filtering out Greece's peculiarities, and taking into account differences in degree, a trend common to most EU member states is recognisable. Other states perhaps will not send neo-nazis at the EP. But most, especially the ones having directly enjoyed European solidarity, are expected to express their gratitude by voting for populists. Not to the degree that will shake the position of the largest establishment European parties, like the EPP and the S&D, but enough to erode their might
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