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Friday, February 1, 2013

France could join list of eurozone casualties in a fresh crisis

New figures lay bare growing disparity with Germany as jobless rate hits 15-year high and consumer spending stagnant

Ever since reports of the black hole in Greece's public finances first surfaced in late 2009, the economic story in the eurozone has been dominated by the growing gulf between the crisis-ridden periphery and the better-performing core. No longer.

Figures out on Thursday highlighted another trend that has developed while the focus has been on the single currency's fringes: the growing disparity between Germany and France.

Labour market data from Germany was again impressive. Unemployment has fallen to a 20-year low of 6.8%, not bad for a country that is heavily reliant on exports and thus exposed to the slowdown in the global economy in the second half of 2012. Meanwhile, France reported flat consumer spending in the final three months of 2012, with all the signs pointing to another weak performance in the first quarter of 2013. The jobless rate in France is at a 15-year high and on course to hit 11% later this year.

Make no mistake, neither country is going to have a 2013 to write home about. But should the eurozone crisis flare up again over the coming months, there is a real risk that its second biggest economy will be added to the list of countries where the public finances are deemed unsustainable.


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