Both main parties see approval ratings slide but gap between them remains stable in Guardian/ICM poll
Politics is settling into a new shape, with Labour maintaining a steady five point lead over the Conservatives, according to an Guardian/ICM poll.
Ed Miliband's party has slipped back two points from last month to stand on 39% of the vote, but the Tories have also edged down from 36% to 34%, so the gap between the two main parties remains stable at five points. The Liberal Democrats have climbed back 3% from last month's dismal rating of 11%, the party's worst in the Guardian/ICM series in 15 years, and now stand at 14%. Combined support for the assorted minor parties has stayed level, at 13%.
Underlying the stable overall picture are signs of deepening disillusion towards politicians on all sides – especially on the all-important terrain of the economy. After a month which saw the eurozone crisis reach new heights, voters are increasingly disinclined to believe that the government or the opposition will do much to help them weather the storm.
When asked to put aside party preference and consider only who they would trust to run the economy properly, just 36% of voters endorse David Cameron and George Osborne, which is a substantial eight-point decline on the 44% rating they enjoyed on the same questions just a month ago. The only comfort for the prime minister and chancellor is that their Labour counterparts have taken an identical eight-point dive in the financial trust stakes, falling from 35% to 27% over the same four weeks, with growing numbers refusing to indicate trust for either team.
The upshot is that the nine-point economic competence lead for the Conservatives remains steady this month, although the longer-term trend continue to be for this advantage to decline. Last Christmas the Tory lead over Labour on the economy was 21 points, which dwindled to 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before settling at nine points today.
After the UK's descent into a double-dip recession and the string of Whitehall blunders which have come to be known as omnishambles, Cameron and Osborne might reasonably feel content with their 36% score for economic management, but it is their lowest rating in the Guardian/ICM series since the general election.
The detail of the data on voting intentions also contains a few worrying signs for the Conservatives. The raw figures for party preference and voting intention would point to not a five but a 10-point Labour lead, of 42% to 32%. It is cut in half by ICM adjustments to identify so-called "shy Tory" voters, by assuming that a proportion of those who report voting a particular way last time around but refuse to say who they will back next time will in fact revert to past form.
Past experience has demonstrated that this is a valuable way of ironing out the wilder vicissitudes of the electoral cycle to give a more reliable prediction. But the sheer number of past Conservative voters now declining to say how they will vote next time at least indicates that Cameron's party is falling out of fashion.
Conservative support has fallen further among women – Labour now enjoys a 13-point lead in the female vote – among the youngest voters aged 18-24, and also in the Midlands. In that key electoral battle ground, Labour is now six points clear, with a 39%-33% lead.
The 13% of voters who indicate support for smaller parties break down as 3% for the Scottish nationalists (down two points on last month), 2% for Plaid Cymru (up one), 3% for the Greens (unchanged), 3% for Ukip (down one) and 1% for the BNP (unchanged).
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 22-24 June 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
 |
| READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.guardian.co.uk |
