Exit poll gives Conservatives 316 seats, Labour 239What to look out for – a guide to results nightJonathan Freedland: the exit poll result no one expectedHow do the exit polls workCoalition talks: the red lines of each party 1.14am BST And here is my colleague Jonathan Freedland giving us an idea of the political future should the exit poll prove accurate. 1.14am BST SNP sources claim the party is set to gain Motherwell and Wishaw, where Labour had an 16,806 majority over the nationalists in 2010, the Press Association reports. 1.13am BST This is what the Lord Mandelson told the BBC earlier.What seems to have happened is that all the three main parties have lost this election. Some have lost it more than others - the Lib Dems in particular - but we seem to be heading to an outcome in which no party has achieved a majority ...The Labour Party has been squeezed by two nationalisms. Obviously in Scotland with the SNP, very severely indeed, but also in England by the nationalist frenzy whipped up by David Cameron and the Conservative party. The Labour Party has found itself very uncomfortably between those two. 1.11am BST Watch the declaration in Tooting in our live stream. 1.11am BST Labour sources claim the count is “neck and neck” in Harrow East where the Conservatives are defending a majority of 3,403, the Press Association reports. 1.11am BST Back on TV watch, and on Channel 4’s Alternative Election, I’m still not warming to scripted comedy Paxman – his Charlie Brooker-style ranting is quite hard going. That said, I’m guessing that Dimbleby isn’t currently yelling at guests to stop taking the piss, so the true spirit of Jeremy is still with us. Most meta moment of the evening: sofa-bound TV viewers watching Paxman introducing the next instalment of election Gogglebox, where sofa-bound TV viewers watch Paxman interviewing David Cameron. My head hurts.We know it's late, but do try to remain focused - we're on until 6am! #AltElection pic.twitter.com/muu515iE4c 1.08am BST Al Murray, the TV comedian standing in South Thanet – the seat Nigel Farage is contesting – says coming second would be a miracle. 1.07am BST My colleague Holly Watt is at Nuneaton. It was billed as the first key result of the night - it was 38th on Labour’s list of target seats - but the Tories are set to hold it, it seems.Just walked round the room in Nuneaton. Don't think I can see a single table where the red pile is bigger than blue pic.twitter.com/h5Z4JWx1WA 1.07am BST There was shock on the faces of Labour supporters at the North Swindon count – even though the Tories were expected to hold the seat, the huge swing of 4.3% to Conservative from Labour compared with 2010 was outside predictions.For the first Conservative victory of the night it was a stunning result – and even the Tories themselves didn’t quite seem to believe it. 1.05am BST This is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman.Lib Dem sources telling me Simon Hughes has probably lost and even David Laws in fight for survival. Which makes exit poll look accurate 1.04am BST Putney has declared. Justine Greening, the Conservative international development secretary, has been re-elected, with her share of the vote marginally up. The swing was a tiny 0.44% from the Conservatives to Labour. 12.59am BST Our results table does not feature swings. So, here are the swings from the first three seats to declare. All three were Labour holds.Houghton and Sunderland South 12.58am BST My colleague Holly Watt has sent this update from Nuneaton: Definite smiles are starting to appear on Conservatives’ faces, as the blue votes pile up on the tables in the middle of the room. 12.55am BST There is a recount in Bradford West, George Galloway’s constituency, the BBC reports. 12.53am BST Philip Cowley, the psephologist, says the Swindon North seat suggests the Tories are doing better than the exit poll suggested.According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives. 12.49am BST Boris Johnson, the London mayor and Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and Ruislip South, leaves the counting centre in Uxbridge, west London – the seat he is hoping to win. 12.49am BST The Tories have held Swindon North. That was 102nd on Labour’s target list, according to the Progress briefing from last year (pdf).Here are the figures in detail: 12.45am BST Barry Norton, Cameron’s election agent for 20 years until last December, has fought enough elections with him to know the Tory leader’s mindset at such times, Caroline Davies writes.He said the prime minister would be cautious about the exit polls. Norton, Tory leader of West Oxfordshire district council, said he had spoken to Cameron three times today. What’s important is not just what we get, but what others get. I’m sure he is thinking of everything. He’s just that type of person. His mind capacity is tremendous, his memory is brilliant. 12.42am BST Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, is in trouble in his Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat, it is being reported.Senior @scottishlabour source: looking bad for shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander #GE2015turnout in Douglas Alexander's seat over 75% apparently. @kdugdalemsp said earlier turnout of more than73% could be problematical for Labour 12.40am BST Very good source tells me Farage *has* lost South Thanet. I’d be surprised if they were wrong. But we’ll see. http://t.co/ko0nFZL9Bh 12.37am BST The Greens privately don't think Norwich South possible this time - Bristol West only seat they *could* gain @georgeeaton 12.37am BST Lord Mandelson tells the BBC that all three parties have lost in the election. 12.34am BST In South Swindon, the exit poll news quickly took the wind out of Labour’s sails, and confident predictions of a close result requiring a recount have been replaced with glum pessimism that – in the words of one Labour organiser – “maybe the Tories have run away with it”.Labour had hopes of retaking a seat it had lost in 2010 with a swing of 3.8% but the Conservatives appear to have run a targeted ground operation in a south-west barometer seat. 12.34am BST One @LibDems source: we will do better than 10 but not looking good. We can repaint @HarrietHarman minibus yellow + fit in our MPsA colleague who has been on the pink minibus says it seats about 16, including the driver. 12.32am BST Labour are saying that the BBC suggestion that the Greens will win Norwich South (see 12.24am) is “well wide of the mark”. 12.31am BST If you can drag yourself away from the horrors currently unfolding in front of you, I’d suggest flicking over to Sky Arts. They’re running a live fixed-camera show set behind the scenes of the Sky newsroom. It’s hard to explain – half of it is a fascinating insight into the operations of a vast newsgathering operation, and the other half is essentially the sort of dry, trumpet-blowing guff that only Sky investors could get excited about. I’d keep watching it until someone said “synergy”, if this didn’t seem like the sort of thing where someone says “synergy” every 15 seconds. 12.30am BST On the BBC, Jeremy Vine is running through some individual seat projections, based on the exit polls.He says there are several seats very high up on the Labour list of target seats that the Conservatives are set to hold, including Sherwood (5th on Labour’s list of target seats), Broxtowe (8th), Amber Valley (11th), Carlisle (15th), Stroud (16th), Weaver Vale (17th) and Lincoln (18th). 12.24am BST The BBC says the seat it expects the Greens to gain in Norwich South. 12.20am BST The difference in heights of the piles of ballot papers tell their own tale – with Labour sources in at least three Glasgow seats already privately admitting defeat and others lowering expectations to “very bleak”, is it possible that the unthinkable might happen – Labour could lose every seat in Glasgow?Of course one must exercise caution, but the early sampling for the SNP, in particular in Glasgow East and Glasgow South-West, has been, I’m told, spectacular. 12.15am BST Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, says she is “very puzzled” by the exit poll. It does not fit her experience, she says. 12.15am BST Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, does not seem to be a happy man tonight.V v odd interview with Nigel Farage on ITV at election night party in Margate - walks off camera after saying Sun + Mail wrong about Ukip@BethRigby Farage didn't look like a man who'd won his seat on TV just now... 12.14am BST Nigel Farage is blasting the Sun and the Daily Mail over their impact on Ukip’s election fortunes. 12.11am BST In David Cameron’s Witney constituency, Caroline Davies talks to Wessex Regionalist candidate Colin Bex: 12.08am BST This is from the Independent on Sunday’s Jane Merrick.It is actually possible that Nick Clegg will have more red lines than he has MPs. 12.08am BST Holly Watt sends this from Nuneaton:One Conservative in the hall saying they are now “quietly confident”of holding Nuneaton. Should be getting turnout figures soon. 12.07am BST DUP leader at Westminster Nigel Dodds has arrived at the Kings Hall count in Belfast. He looks pleased, perhaps due to the knowledge that his party could yet wield some influence on the formation of the next government given the national exit poll.Dodds has told the Guardian he is confident “the DUP will play a pivotal role in this next parliament”. While cautious about the national exit poll and the projection of seats, Dodds said his party would play a key role after all the votes are counted. He also expressed confidence that he will hold on to his North Belfast seat despite a strong challenge from Sinn Féin’s Gerry Kelly. 12.03am BST Labour’s general secretary, Ian McNicol, is also taking to Twitter to dismiss the exit poll.Exit polls have been wrong in the past. I think this one is too. Read @SpenceLivermore’s blog → http://t.co/NPpyeI5VZu 12.02am BST Adam Boulton points out that, with just three results in, the Lib Dems have lost three deposits already.LibDems lose 3/3 £500 deposits so far, under 5% of vote. Didn't lose any in 2010. 12.02am BST As the night wears on, Channel 4’s Alternative Election Night raises some interesting questions. Is it the contrast on my TV, or has Paxman been spray tanned? Why do the outside broadcasts have a five second delay, like Doncaster is on the moon? When will they bring out a hapless, blibbering idiot for Paxman to yell at? Did David Mitchell choose that shirt/tie combo in the dark? Where has Richard Osman been all these years?My favourite Osman fact of the evening so far – if the electorate was made up entirely of people who like steak and kidney pudding (or dogging), UKIP would have a massive majority. You won’t get that kind of cutting-edge insight with Dimbleby. Most random moment so far: Blur’s drummer Dave Rowntree talking us through the methodology of exit polling. Assume later we’ll be hearing Graham Coxon’s insights on the long term fiscal implication of Tory cuts, whilst Alex James wangs on about cheese. 12.02am BST BBC report: "Rumours coming in that George Galloway has lost his seat." 11.58pm BST 11.57pm BST This is from the Scottish Daily Mail’s political editor.Senior LibDem source: Danny Alexander has lost. #ge2015 11.54pm BST Asked on ITV if Ed Miliband should resign if the exit poll proves correct, David Blunkett, the Labour former cabinet minister, said he hoped not.He also offered what might be the first public contribution to the Labour post-mortem.If we have lost this election, we have lost it from 2010, when in the six months after 201o we failed to nail the lie that Labour, the Labour government, had been responsible for the global meltdown, and everything that happened in the US, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, was the Labour government’s fault. It was such a nonsense. But the coalition got away with peddling that. I think we’ve got to think seriously about about avoiding a situation where we rush into something that might damage us in the long term. 11.52pm BST With the Lib Dems projected to win just 10 seats, one Twitter account is tallying up how many deposits the party could lose. It currently stands at £1,500. A poll suggested last week Nick Clegg’s party could lose as much as £26,000 in deposits.£1500 11.48pm BST Nick Clegg’s close ally and the former Lib Dem leader of Sheffield city council, Paul Scriven, is at the Sheffield count. He says the exit poll “looks completely rogue”.“You take a look at the YouGov poll and I think that gives a completely different picture,” he said, adding that it went against “everything we’re hearing from our activists around the country”. 11.46pm BST Nick Clegg is on course to hold his seat, the BBC reports.Sheffield hallam forecast to stay Lib Dem #justaforecast - exit data suggesting LDs have 38% share - down from 53% #giantouchscreen 11.43pm BST Here’s Spencer Livermore, Labour’s general election campaign director, on the exit poll.I’ve been involved in a lot of elections and, I have to say, I am sceptical of this BBC exit poll: http://t.co/3ffWV746gD 11.42pm BST Ed Balls reacts to the exit poll, saying it’s early days yet and that much can change as the ballot counts come in throughout the night. 11.41pm BST This is what Ed Balls said earlier, explaining how Ed Miliband could still become prime minister.If the exit poll is out by even 10 seats - let alone 20 or 30 - suddenly David Cameron cannot get a majority for a Queen’s Speech. Then constitutionally it would fall to the leader of the opposition to become prime minister and see if he can get a Queen’s Speech through the Commons.I'm a great fan of Ed Balls but to pretend that Miliband can be PM on 239 seats and 77 seats behind is utterly barking 11.39pm BST According to the Press Association, Plaid Cymru and Labour sources say the vote is too close to call in Ynys Mon, where Labour had a 2,461 majority in the 2010 election. 11.37pm BST Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, said the exit poll should be treated with “extreme caution”. But she would be pleased with gaining a second seat in parliament, she said.If we have doubled our parliamentary representation and we are sending perhaps Darren Hall in Bristol West to join the brilliant Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion as a strong group of Green MPs in Parliament - then that will be a good result for the Green party. 11.36pm BST Promising signs so far for Ukip ... but have the Tories decapitated the party in East Kent?In South Thanet, where Nigel Farage hopes to make the personal political breakthrough he has longed for all his life, Tory sources seem quietly confident their man, Craig MacKinlay, has dashed those hopes – possibly with the help of Labour voters eager to keep the Ukip leader out.Elsewhere in the country though Ukip’s deputy leader, Paul Nuttall, is still keeping his fingers crossed for the man he may replace if Farage fails to win. 11.33pm BST Lord Mandelson has been speaking to ITV. Mandelson on whether Ed could be PM if exit poll right: "On these numbers and the exit poll very difficult indeed, I don't see that" #GE2015Mandelson says Labour's been "squeezed by 2 nationalisms" in #GE2015, SNP in Scotland & "English nationalism whipped up" by PM #opinionroom 11.33pm BST Matthew Taylor writes that Labour is maintaining it will take seats in London despite the shock exit poll. A spokesman for the party in the capital, where Labour had been polling 12% – 14% ahead of the Tories, said: “We’ve had 10,000 volunteers out across London today and we’re confident we’ll make gains across London. Nationally, it’s been close all the way through, exit polls have been wrong in the past.” 11.31pm BST Social Democratic and Labour party tally men and women are confidenttheir leader Alasdair McDonnell will hold the South Belfast seat. They say overall turnout is up to around 60% and in three polling stations McDonnell is far ahead of his rivals – in tallies seen by the Guardian.Privately one senior Ulster Unionist party figure concedes McDonnell is on course for re-election albeit with a reduced majority. 11.29pm BST Police are investigating an allegation of voter fraud in the Glasgow East constituency. I understand that there has been an allegation of personation, where an individual votes under someone else’s identity. I have asked count officials for further details. 11.25pm BST 11.22pm BST Labour are firming up their line on the exit poll. A party source says: We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us. 11.21pm BST Results aside, the emerging star so far tonight is easily John Curtice, representing the British Polling Council on BBC1. He’s evidently panicking about the veracity of the exit poll, and it’s paying a heavy toll on his appearance. At 10pm, he was perfectly presentable. At 10.30pm, he’d started to look a little more ragged. At 11pm, his hair was all over the place, as if – as someone on Twitter put it – he’d brushed it with a balloon. Next time we cut back to him, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be on fire, or curled up in his suit jacket and whispering into his shoes. It’s going to be a long night, John. Pace yourself. 11.21pm BST On Sky Ed Balls says the exit poll is completely at odds with the polls seen during the campaign.Even if the exit poll is right, David Cameron would have lost his coalition majority. He would be “clinging on”, he says.I think this election is still wide open. 11.20pm BST I'm hearing that the sampling is looking positive for @nataliemcgarry #snp in Glasgow East #GE2015 11.16pm BST Here is a live stream from the count in Sunderland Central where Labour held the seat. Lab 50%, Con 23, Ukip 19, Grn 4, Lib Dem 3 11.16pm BST The ConservativeHome journalist Peter Franklin has been speculating on what the Lib Dem parliamentary party might look like if the exit poll turns out to be true.If only 10 Lib Dem survivors I'd guess: Carmichael, Clegg, Farron, Lamb, Laws, Hughes, Cable, Russell, Webb, Davey 11.14pm BST The BBC/Sky/ITV exit polls gets revised as the night goes on.According to Sky’s Faisal Islam, the data that came in after 9pm did not alter the calculations.Exit poll final interviews from 9-10pm haven't changed this projection... Still Con ahead Lab by 77 seats, SNP sweeping all. #GE2015 11.12pm BST Hear that ballot boxes only recently arrived at @edballsmp count so rumour re losing his seat seems to be just that - a rumour 11.11pm BST At one point it was assumed that the rise of Ukip would harm the Conservatives more than any other party. Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, thinks it will turn out the other way round.My prediction for tonight is that #UKIP vote will prove to be a huge boost to Conservative Party, not that it was our intention. #GE2015 11.09pm BST Ed Balls on ITV: the exit poll jars with all the pols we have seen in recent days. Even if it's right the Con/LD majority has been wiped out 11.08pm BST Senior Scottish Labour source tells @Telegraph: "We are in contention in a lot more seats than the BBC exit poll shows." 11.08pm BST Nigel Farage is set to lose in South Thanet, according to Labour sources.Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015 11.07pm BST Andrew Neil is now interviewing Michael Gove on the BBC. If the poll is right, David Cameron will have won a remarkable victory, Gove says. But it is not a victory if you did not win a majority, says Neil. 11.06pm BST Here is a picture of one of those sixth-form runners who helped Sunderland hold on to its first-to-declare record. 11.05pm BST Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former spin doctors, is telling the BBC that if David Cameron cannot form a government that gains a majority, then Ed Miliband will have the right to form a government.He won’t eat his hat, but he will eat his kilt if the SNP gain 58 seats in Scotland. 11.05pm BST Sunderland has held on to its crown as the fastest-declaring city in every UK general election since 1992.Bridget Phillipson was announced as the Labour MP for Houghton & Sunderland South at 10.48pm – four minutes faster than in 2010. 11.03pm BST In Belfast, Henry McDonald analyses the DUP’s chances of influencing a new government:If the national exit poll is correct and the election outcome marks the return of the Con-Lib Dem coalition then this may lessen the chance of the Democratic Unionist party exerting influence on the new government. David Cameron may not need the votes of the eight or possibly nine DUP MPs. But DUP sources at the Kings Hall count in Belfast insist that a coalition government with 326 seats is unstable and Cameron may still have to call on Nigel Dodds for further backing. 11.01pm BST Here are the Houghton and Sunderland South results in full.Bridget Phillipson (Lab) 21,218 (55.13%, +4.79%) Richard Elvin (UKIP) 8,280 (21.51%, +18.82%) Stewart Hay (C) 7,105 (18.46%, -2.97%) Alan Robinson (Green) 1,095 (2.84%) Jim Murray (LD) 791 (2.06%, -11.86%) Lab maj 12,938 (33.61%) 7.01% swing Lab to UkipElectorate 68,316; Turnout 38,489 (56.34%, +1.02%) 10.55pm BST Labour has held Houghton & Sunderland South. Ukip has come second.Labour is on 55%, up 5 percentage points. Ukip was on 22%, up 19%. 10.49pm BST John Curtice, the psephologist in charge of the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll, says 22,000 people have been interviewed for it. The SNP has done at least as well as the poll suggests, he says. 10.44pm BST The YouGov figures reflect polling carried out today, but it is not a proper exit poll.YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday. 10.43pm BST Jonathan Freedland has posted a snap analysis of the exit poll. Here is an excerpt:If this one turns out to be similarly accurate, there will be inquests aplenty. Labour will surely spend the coming hours contemplating the fate of its leader, who – this poll says – was roundly rejected in both England and Scotland. The Lib Dems will spend the night contemplating the bizarre prospect of having been simultaneously wiped out – and looking forward to a return to government. Their projected tally of 10 seats should be a disaster of epic proportions – and yet, on the exit polls, it would almost be enough to see them renew their coalition vows with the Conservatives.As for Scotland, the exit polls confirmed that this was the revolution some had foretold – in which Scotland turned collectively yellow, becoming the land of the Scottish National party. 10.42pm BST If you missed the moment the exit poll from the BBC, ITV and Sky News was announced, here it is again: 10.39pm BST This is from Sam Freedman, a former adviser to Michael Gove. His tweets are normally quite sensible.Extraordinary rumours swirling - most incredible is that Tories think they might have got Balls in Morley and Outwood. Surely not. 10.38pm BST As dramatic exit polls suggest that the SNP could sweep to power in all but one of Scotland’s 59 constituencies, Dr Murray Stewart Leith, senior lecturer in politics at the University of the West of Scotland, has urged parties to treat the results with caution.I’m dubious about it because it deviates so strongly from all of the other polls we’ve had,” he said. “We’ve had more polls taken over the course of this campaign than any previous election.Of course, polling has been wrong in the past, but as a science it’s become more exact. It’s a social science, so we’re always going to be slightly off, but even given the most extreme margin of error this poll is giving a significant gain to the Conservatives across the UK that not even their most ardent supporters thought was possible. 10.37pm BST Senior Welsh Labour source says if exit poll is right it could mean an ‘English’ swing & thus spell bad news for the future of the Union. 10.36pm BST This is the line from Labour:It has been close all the way through – and exit polls have been wrong in the past. YouGov figures are very different from the BBC’s. The coalition came into the election with a majority of 73 and even if the BBC exit poll is right, that has all but been wiped out. Who forms the next government is who can carry the confidence of the House of Commons. 10.35pm BST The Guardian’s data editor gives us his reaction to the exit poll. 10.33pm BST YouGov has released a new poll that has given very different figures from the exit polls.YouGov Exit Poll: CON - 284 LAB - 263 SNP - 48 LDEM - 31 UKIP - 2 GRN - 1 #TheVoteExit polls comparison (BBC vs. YouGov) Cons: 316 vs. 284 Lab: 239 vs. 263 Lib Dem: 10 vs. 31 SNP: 58 vs. 48 UKIP: 2 vs. 2” 10.31pm BST Caroline Davies is in Witney, David Cameron’s constituency, where counters are getting ready for a long night. She sends this report:The first of the ballot boxes arrived at 10.15pm at the Windrush leisure centre in Witney, David Cameron’s West Oxfordshire constituency. In the last general election, he polled 33,973 – 58% – and a majority of 22,740. The Liberal Democrats were second with 19.4%. 10.30pm BST Harriet Harman, Labour’s deputy leader, also told the BBC that, if the exit poll was right, it meant the coalition goverment had lost its majority. 10.29pm BST Phoebe Greenwood is in Uxbridge, the seat Boris Johnson is contesting for the Tories, as the ballot boxes arrive for the count. 10.28pm BST Here is more from what Michael Gove told David Dimbleby earlier.I believe it could be right. If it is right, the Conservatives have clearly won this election, and Labour have clearly lost it. We have not had an incumbent government increase its majority like this since 1983 and it would be an unprecedented vote of confidence in David Cameron’s leadership and in particular in the message that we have reinforced throught this campaign, which is that if people want to secure our economic recovery, they have to make sure that David is in Downing Street ...If this exit poll is correct, that gives the prime minister considerable authority. He would have clearly won. And we should all wait for the prime minister to say tomorrow on what basis he proceeds and on what basis he wants to ensure that we have a strong, stable and secure government that we argued for and that it seems the country has backed. 10.26pm BST The pound surged by 1% against the US dollar to $1.54 after the exit poll was published.Chris Beauchamp, a senior market analyst at IG, said the much better-than-expected performance by the Tories electrified markets, sending sterling 150 points up against the US dollar to $1.54 – and pushing up FTSE futures.The exit poll certainly comes as a surprise, putting the Conservatives well ahead on 316. IG’s market had the Conservatives at 291 in the minutes before the poll was released, so it appears the ‘incumbency effect’ is playing its part as people weigh up their choices in the privacy of the voting booth. Crucially, Mr Cameron is expected to still be short of a majority, but it looks like any putative anti-Tory coalition will have a harder job on its hands blocking any Queen’s speech authored largely by the Conservatives.A strong Conservative element to the next government sends the message that the economic policies of the past five years will continue, removing concerns about an early end to austerity. Pound surges 1% against the US dollar to $1.54 after exit poll shows Conservatives are largest party #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/2NdbUn6Ans 10.23pm BST Harriet Harman, Labour’s deputy leader, says even if the exit poll is correct, there would still be a question as to whether the Tories could form a majority.She won’t go as far as Paddy Ashdown, she says, but she has known exit polls to be wrong before. 10.21pm BST The exit poll commissioned by the BBC, ITV and Sky News, and carried out by Gfk-NOP and Ipsos Mori, has the Conservatives on 316 seats, by far the largest party. Labour are predicted to win 239 seats.The numbers are in stark contrast to pre-election polls. And based on these numbers, the current Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government would have the numbers to continue in office. 10.20pm BST V senior @UKIP sources in Thanet south tell BBC turnout high but worried about tactical voters out to block @Nigel_Farage ie labour #ge2015Senior @Conservatives sources in Thanet south tell BBC it's 'too close to call', but confident vote 'holding up' #ge2015 10.19pm BST Paddy Ashdown, the former Lib Dem leader and head of the party’s election campaign, has just told the BBC that he would “publicly eat [his] hat” if this poll turns out to be true. 10.19pm BST Here is my colleague James Ball’s reaction to the exit poll. 10.15pm BST 10.14pm BST Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, says the exit poll should be treated with “huge caution”.I'd treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I'm hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely! #GE15 10.13pm BST A senior Lib Dem source in Nick Clegg’s camp said: Our initial thoughts on the exit poll are that it doesn’t match any of our internal intelligence and we find it quite extraordinary that not a single bit of evidence has pointed to this so far. Labour losses and Tory gains seem extraordinary. For the SNP to take all but one seat in Scotland would also be extraordinary. We are going to take a loss, we’ve always known that and it’s not going to be an easy night but we think 10 is right at the bottom end of our expectations. 10.11pm BST Pound surges 1% against the US dollar to $1.54 after exit poll shows Conservatives are largest party #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/2NdbUn6Ans 10.10pm BST Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, tells the BBC that if this poll is correct, “the Conservatives have clearly won this election, and Labour has clearly lost it”. 10.08pm BST John Curtice: If exit poll is correct predicted Labour tally of 239 seats would represent party’s worst result since 1987 #bbcelections2015 10.08pm BST According to these figures, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems together would have 326 seats - just enough for a majority.The exit poll says the DUP are on course to get 8 seats. So, if they joined up with the Tories and the Lib Dems, that would take the figure to 334. 10.04pm BST The BBC has now released the rest of the figures, including Plaid Cymru and the Greens.Conservatives: 316 10.03pm BST According to these figures, the Conservatives are on course to gain nine seats. And Labour are on course to lose seats, and end up 77 seats behind the Conservatives. 10.02pm BST Here are the exit poll figures.Conservatives: 316 9.59pm BST As we await the exit poll from the main broadcasters, Channel 4’s Alternative Election Night has kicked off, pairing up David Mitchell and Jeremy Paxman for nine hours of hard news, electoral commentary, biting satire and Gogglebox. Paxo left Newsnight for this new foray into awkward autocue stand-up, so we’re tentatively hopeful it will offer some light relief from the joyless election dustbowl on the BBC, particularly in the small hours. However due to Ofcom rules, Channel 4’s Alternative Election Night can’t talk about the election until the polls close. So the first hour has been mostly laboured gags about not being able to talk about the election. A 10pm start would have been considerably less painful. 9.58pm BST David Dimbleby has the exit poll in his hands. But he can’t read it out til 10pm. 9.55pm BST Labour says it has had 10,000 volunteers out on the streets of London today in an effort to get its vote out. The party has been consistently ahead of the Tories by 12% – 14% in the capital and hopes that its superior “ground war” will convert that lead into a raft of new seats. Labour currently has 38 of the capital’s 73 MPs, the Tories 28 and the Lib Dems seven.An early test of this theory will be Battersea, which is due to declare at 2am. The party needs to overturn a near 6,000 majority to oust Conservative MP Jane Ellison. If Labour is anywhere near it will be an ominous sign for the Tories, but if a recent poll from Lord Ashcroft putting the Tories 12 points clear proves accurate, Labour could be in for a long night. 9.52pm BST Earlier the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman wrote a blog saying the Tories suspect Ed Miliband could offer the Lib Dems electoral reform to win their support in a hung parliament. But Labour are dismissing this idea, she reports.Update: Labour sources pouring cold water on idea of PR as an offer to Lib Dems http://t.co/282bOWot8w 9.44pm BST “They cling on to it like a chalice but I don’t think anybody else is that arsed, to be honest wi’ ye,” said a Sunderland taxi driver of his city’s proud record of being the first to declare a result in every general election since 1992. Within three minutes of the polls closing at 10pm, the first ballot boxes are being sprinted into a vast sports complex three miles from Sunderland city centre. A team of 100 sixth-formers have been recruited from two local schools as runners, delivering the boxes from 121 polling stations across Wearside to 200 well-drilled counters, including local bank tellers hand-picked for their speed and accuracy. We're pumped up, feeling bloody lively in Sunderland. First result in little over 2 hours! https://t.co/vBqDvpTQE3 9.41pm BST The Sunderland seats are expected to be the first to declare. In a recent Guardian article Dave Smith, the council’s chief executive, explained why the council was so quick.UPDATE: Dave McGuinness says Newcastle fancy their chances too.@AndrewSparrow massive rivalry between Newcastle & Sunderland to try and declare first apparently Newcastle City Council fancy their chances 9.37pm BST Nigel Farage is still trying to get the Kippers out.30 minutes left! Go and #VoteUKIP for a REAL shake up of the political establishment! #GE2015 #IVOTED 9.28pm BST Here are some more reports of polling station queueing.Large queues form outside of Holy Trinity Church on Boar Lane in Leeds #leeds #electionyorks http://t.co/KkIJJr4ENT pic.twitter.com/l7vbhhbg8THuge queues now outside Spa Rd polling station in Bermondsey. You will be allowed to vote if you're in line before 10pm.1 hour left to vote, and queues outside some polling stations are 50 minutes long http://t.co/h8WDGNicNH #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/LWCkH8YoS9good lord, a 40 minute queue outside a polling station in Cheetham Hill http://t.co/PVuHicuH4iLong queues at polling stations in Hove. Suspect turnout is going to be high this time. 9.23pm BST In Norwich some people have been having to wait up to an hour to vote.Polling station at jessopp road Norwich where people have waited up to an hour to vote pic.twitter.com/0PL2CWds89 9.21pm BST 9.19pm BST Betfair, 9pm: Ed Miliband odds-on favourite at 10/11 for next PM, pulling away slightly from David Cameron 11/10. 9.15pm BST Our correspondent Josh Halliday has done a brief video interview with the Sunderland returning officer - the man masterminding the city’s attempt to smash its own declaration record of 10:42pm. 9.12pm BST Here is some more background election reading. 8.57pm BST Here’s a Guardian/Observer graphic showing what success might look like for the main parties. 8.52pm BST Every man and his dog seems to be coming up with an election forecast this time round. This one, from an independent analyst who writes the Number Cruncher Politics blog, may make Labour a little nervous. NCP final call roundup and prediction: CON 302 LAB 249 SNP 51 LIB 23 http://t.co/Tfknp8cMP1 #GE2015 #ELECTION2015 pic.twitter.com/LfX5K0N6SF 8.41pm BST According to ConservativeHome’s Mark Wallace, in some areas the Tories are having problems with VoteSource, their voter contact database.Hearing from a variety of seats where VoteSource is borked that campaign teams are left relying on old paper canvassing returns.If, as I wrote this morning http://t.co/LojHIl1o9L, your plan is to win by smart targeting, your database breaking is bad news.@melindiscott It's the voter contact database. Who we've canvassed, who is a Tory voter and therefore whose door needs knocking on today@melindiscott Apparently that last part - printing out the sheets so you can knock on supporters' doors to get out the vote - is breakingI'm told VoteSource is working fine in South Thanet - evidently the problems aren't everywhere. ( cc @LabourList) 8.35pm BST Here is a sample of “only two more hours to vote” tweets from the political parties.This is the closest election for a generation. Make sure your voice is heard. #VoteLabourJust 2 hours left to make your voice heard and secure a brighter future for Britain. Make sure you #VoteConservative. pic.twitter.com/oIa5VNPRLxTwo hours until polling stations close at 10pm. Please get out and vote! http://t.co/pDMqSEBmYG #VoteGreen2015 pic.twitter.com/ElZd2QEIRb90 minutes remain to #voteSNP and help us end Westminster austerity cuts. Polls close at 10pm #GE15 pic.twitter.com/YxPwoYFk6GThere's just an hour & a half until polls close. Here's why you should vote #libdems #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/slr2kRMrFD 8.31pm BST If you are interested in how the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll is conducted (see 8.03pm), here is a short reading list. 8.14pm BST 8.10pm BST My colleague Claire Phipps posted earlier a useful guide to what’s happening on election night. It includes her guide to where you can watch the results. Here are the options for UK viewers. 8.03pm BST Only two more hours to go.The polls have been open since 7am and you can follow all the polling day action on our earlier live blog (as well as see some nice pictures of dogs).It's all gone tits up. Call for Boris Continue reading...
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