Rolling coverage of the deadlock over Greece’s bailout programme, as European leaders gather in Brussels for a summit meetingPhotos: Greek and UK PMs meetDavid Cameron pushes for a quick resolutionTsipras: Must find a solution togetherMerkel: European rules matterGreek insiders: More meetings may be needed 7.22pm GMT While the talks continue in Brussels, Angela Merkel is winning praise at home for her work on the Ukraine ceasefire.Days of shuttle diplomacy finally brought the Minsk meeting — and buckets of praise at home for the dogged chancellor.“Merkel: the world chancellor” ran a headline in Bild, the tabloid. 5.48pm GMT Here’s a “family photo” as the EU puts it, ahead of the day’s meetings:For the first time, @europeanleft is represented at the EU Summit #EUCO pic.twitter.com/yjT1Bb8PXz 5.31pm GMT Here’s a bit more on the “technical discussions” courtesy EUObserver:Greek PM Tsipras and Eurogroup president Dijsselbloem agreed Thursday that Greece and the troika of international lenders would start talks “at a technical level” Friday, “to assess the common ground between the current debt programme and the plans of the Greek government”, according to one EU diplomat. 5.25pm GMT More meetings apparently:Greek officials are to meet representatives of Troika tomorrow (Friday 13) to prepare for Eurogroup meeting on MondayDijsselbloem and Tsipras agree that technical discussions with EC, ECB, IMF to start ahead of Monday #Eurogroup @tsipras_eu @J_Dijsselbloem 5.22pm GMT Hopes of a resolution to Greece’s financial woes - despite Wednesday’s late night failure to reach an agreement - lifted stock markets higher, writes Nick Fletcher. The prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine helped matters, as did news that Sweden was beginning a programme of quantitative easing. The final scores showed: 4.31pm GMT European Parliament President @MartinSchulz giving a press conference after speaking with #EUCO leaders pic.twitter.com/t88Vi2946n 4.19pm GMT Headline of the day - *DIJSSELBLOEM, TSIPRAS TALKED ABOUT GREECE TODAY: EU OFFICIAL 4.15pm GMT It was a good day on Athens’ stock market, with investors apparently optimistic that a bailout deal will be agreed.#Greece Athens stock exchange ended +6.73, banks +14.10% (NBG +18%, Alpha Bank +14.75%, Eurobank +12.75%, Piraeus Bank +9.97%) 4.09pm GMT It’s always interesting to see who chatted to whom at the start of these EU summits, especially as leaders know the cameras are on them.This time, Angela Merkel (looking a little tired after her gruelling Ukraine peace talks) grabbed a serious word with David Cameron... 3.42pm GMT Here’s a better photo of the moment that Alexis Tsipras met Angela Merkel:"Guten Abend, Frau Kanzlerin. Ich heiße Alexis". Tsipras has clearly taken a crash course in fake smiles. #EUCO pic.twitter.com/cjqaoLuggd 3.31pm GMT We have confirmation that David Cameron pushed Alexis Tsipras over the eurozone crisis today, from his official twitter account.PM has held his first meeting with Greek PM @atsipras. Focus was on the Eurozone and the need to find a solution. #EuCo 3.28pm GMT Tsipras and Merkel have had a chat, though, according to this screengrab:Hollande presenta Tsipras alla Merkel #euco pic.twitter.com/Q3Xiq6uK8f 3.27pm GMT Here’s the seating plan for the EUCO meeting. You’ll note that Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel are some distance apart....#EUCO begins with a promise to end before midnight. Two new collegues: @atsipras and President Iohannis. Welcome. pic.twitter.com/1XyIJKI25G 3.19pm GMT The European Council Summit is finally underway...Informal #EUCO has now started. #Ukraine, fighting #terrorism and improving #EMU on the agenda pic.twitter.com/V85SsOolNI 3.15pm GMT The Bank of England is very keen to hammer home that Britain is not entering deflation, just because the tumbling oil price is dragging the CPI rate below zero.pic.twitter.com/gqfL9ZMCu9 3.02pm GMT The euro has surged higher in the last couple of minutes, following a report that the European Central Bank has raised the amount of liquidity available to Greek banks.That’s according to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper (FAZ to its friends)Greek banks ECB/ELA funding based on recent press reports. pic.twitter.com/zLB8Nkdivd 2.49pm GMT David Cameron and Alexis Tsipras’s meeting in Brussels looks to be a pretty cheerful affair, with the UK PM joking that these summits can drag on.... 2.35pm GMT Greek roller coaster update! Stocks now up 4%, bond yield down to 18% from 20.5%. To be continued... #Greece pic.twitter.com/TlMUDgvQXX 2.34pm GMT It’s one crisis meeting down, one to go, for Angela Merkel today. #grexit #merkel germany ready for compromise but rules are rules and partners need to be reliable. looking forward to welcome tsipras to eu#Merkel: We will discuss #Greece today on sidelines of the meeting 2.22pm GMT Don’t blame Greece for last night’s stalemate, argues the cartoonist at the Kathimerini newspaper:Ilias Makris's cartoon of the day @ekathimerini pic.twitter.com/CFITw87H3R 2.19pm GMT David Cameron has warned Greece’s new prime minister that these summits can drag on a bit (reinforced his reputation for disliking European bureaucracy).Mr Tsipras, who has made refusing to wear a tie a key part of his image, once again went open-necked for the high-level meeting. The Prime Minister warned him the meetings “can go on all night and in to the next day”. 1.58pm GMT How much progress might be made on the Greek crisis at today’s European Council summit?Wolf Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence reckons not much:No official talks between Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been planned, although the possibility of an informal meeting between the two should not be discarded. Despite the setback, an agreement remains the most likely outcome on balance. However, the conclusion of an interim deal may be delayed beyond Monday, given the vast ground to cover. Therefore, a further extraordinary Eurogroup meeting is likely to be required before the current bailout expires on 28 February and as a result, talks are still expected to go down to the wire.Berenberg: The risk of #Greece exit remains at 35%. If today’s EU summit ends without any sign of progress, the risk could rise further 1.56pm GMT Informal #EUCO today will start at 16h. Early dinner rather than late lunch. 1.55pm GMT The start of the European Council summit has delayed until 4pm local time (3pm GMT), due to the late arrival of Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko.UKR pres @poroshenkoeng is in Brussels talking to @eucopresident Tusk ahead of #EUCO delayed summit, starting at 4pm pic.twitter.com/T11QPXN1kW 1.45pm GMT Greece’s prime minister has also arrived at the summit meeting. 1.41pm GMT There’s also optimism on the floor of the Greek stock market today. The main ATG index has risen by over 4%, clawing back yesterday’s losses. Bank shares have gained around 10%, continuing their roller-coaster ride since the election. 1.32pm GMT Despite last night’s deadlock, some Greek bonds have actually strengthened in value today.The yield on Greece’s 10-year debt has dropped from 11% to 10.5% today, showing investors see it as slightly safer (yields fall when prices rise). But that’s still alarmingly high. 1.26pm GMT 1.25pm GMT David Cameron has now arrived in Brussels for the EU summit. He confirmed that he’s meeting Greek PM Tsipras soon (as Nick Watt flagged up earlier), and warned that Britain’s economy could suffer if the deadlock drags on.Cameron: I'm looking forward to my first meeting with Tspiras, British economy affected by the stand-off between Greece & Eurozone #EUCOCameron: longer stand off goes on the worse it could be for Britain #EUCO 1.13pm GMT #Eurogroup president @J_Dijsselbloem will update #EUCO on talks on financial assistance to #Greece. 1.08pm GMT European leaders at the Summit will discuss last night’s (rather unsuccessful) eurogroup meeting on Greece, says Council president Donald Tusk:Tusk: I will ask chairman of #Eurogroup to inform us about results, also interested in what #Tsipras has to say about this #EUCO 1.05pm GMT More European leaders have arrived in Brussels: 12.56pm GMT French president Francois Holland has just arrived in Brussels from Minsk, where a Ukranian ceasefire was hammered out during overnight talks.Hollande komt aan op Europese top, na nachtje onderhandelen in Minsk #euco pic.twitter.com/oTPVeksM0bHollande on Ukraine: Next few hours will be decisive. Everything can still go one way or another. #EUCO 12.41pm GMT Alexis Tsipras is also sitting down with UK prime minister David Cameron for talks today, before the EU Summit begins.Cameron is expected to urge Tsipras to reach a deal with its international creditors over its bailout programme, A British official said: “This is a useful opportunity to hear Tsipras’s plans. The prime minister’s point to him will be: ‘We want to see a swift resolution of this standoff between you and the eurozone partners. And you all need to come together and come up with a plan.’”“We are not seeking to take sides beyond the point of: ‘You need to get on and sort this out. You have done your 10 days of going round and having talks. You were at the eurogroup [meeting of eurozone finance ministers] and there is another one next week. When are we going to see some resolution and some agreement on a way forward?’”PM David Cameron @Number10gov in Brussels today for informal #EUCO to discuss #Ukraine, terrorism, and economy. pic.twitter.com/UxumeN8cB5 12.25pm GMT This Reuters newsflash suggests the political upheaval in Greece has hit government revenues: 12.14pm GMT The tale of the eurogroup statement that never was has taken another twist.Channel 4’s Paul Mason has heard that Greece had agreed a version, before Germany refused to agree to amending the bailout programme, causing the deadlock.Greek source: doc they agreed to said "amending and extending and successfully concluding" program. Schauble nixed "amending". (1/2) so...(2/2) after 2 hours they cd not agree, and the unagreed draft, without "amending", got leaked to press. This from authoritative Greek source 11.54am GMT 11.33am GMT After speaking with Tsipras, Belgium prime minister, Charles Michel, told reporters he’s optimistic the eurozone’s 19 members could find a solution to the Greek crisis, even if this required a special effort.“The solution is delicate and difficult. We need determination and will. “The magic of Europe has always been to find solutions even when we thought it impossible. I am convinced that this magic will end up working.” 11.31am GMT Prime Minister, Charles Michel, welcomes Alexis #Tsipras and Yanis #Varoufakis #Belgium #Greece pic.twitter.com/YI2AWwzLsH 11.29am GMT Back in Brussels , Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has declared that “we are at a critical turning point for Europe”.Speaking after a meeting with Belgian counterpart, Charles Michel, Tsipras said:“We have to prove that Europe can find a solution, respect the positions that the parties take, and combine respect for democracy with European rules.” 11.20am GMT The Bank of England has raised its forecast for household consumption, but cut its forecast for exports and business investment. So, how worried are you about the balance of the recovery?It’s not yet impacting monetary policy, Mark Carney replies, but it’s something we talk about. 11.05am GMT Chris Giles of the FT asks whether today’s forecasts may have leaked, given recent moves in the financial markets.Carney looks genuinely surprised, and reckons there’s no reason to believe this has happened.Interesting: @ChrisGiles_ from FT asks whether market moves suggest there's been a leak of the Inflation Report. Carney, taken aback sez"no" 11.03am GMT My colleague Larry Elliott points out that history shows that the BoE’s forecasts are rarely completely accurate (diplomatically put, Larry!). 11.00am GMT Has Mark Carney had much feedback to his recent attack on eurozone austerity and call for more constructive fiscal policy? The governor replies that yes, he’s had discussions with policymakers before and after the speech. 10.50am GMT So if inflation is so weak, should Britons be preparing for interest rates to be raised, or cut?Mark Carney: The most likely next move is an increase in interest rates. 10.47am GMT The first question at the Bank of England’s press conference is on Greece -- what effect would a Greek “dirty exit” from its bailout programme have on the UK? Mark Carney says that an escalation of the Greek crisis would have an impact on the British economy, but not as much as in 2012 (when Grexit fears were at their height). 10.39am GMT From the Bank of England, my colleague Angela Monaghan writes:Mark Carney has warned interest rates may rise earlier than the City expects, despite Bank of England expectations that inflation will turn negative for the first time in more than half a century.The slump in oil prices and falling food prices is likely to push inflation to zero in the second and third quarters, probably dipping into negative territory for one or two months, the Bank said in its February inflation report. 10.38am GMT The Bank of England sounds determined to look through the impact of falling oil prices - which, as Carney says, is a net positive for the UK economy. 10.38am GMT Mark Carney says that UK take-home pay is going to grow at its fastest pace in a decade, thanks to lower inflation. 10.35am GMT Breaking: The Bank of England has just predicted that Britain’s inflation rate will turn negative in the spring, and remain low through 2015. 10.29am GMT Heads-up: the Bank of England is about to publish its quarterly inflation report. I’ll cover the main points, and also mop up any comments about the eurocrisis.There’s a live-feed here. 10.27am GMT The Greek PM has been sighted in Belgium:Greek PM Tsipras arrives Brussels for summit. Speaks of ending corruption and tax evasion. Interesting to see what reception he gets. 10.21am GMT And earlier today, Greek government spokesman Gavriil Sakellaridis told Greek media that Athens refused to sign the eurogroup statement because it referred to an extension to complete the current bailout program. More here.#Greece govt spox Sakellaridis confirms it was PM Tsipras' decision to block draft Eurogroup statmnt http://t.co/PQFWV7DVcx ~@kathimerini_gr 10.18am GMT Just to add to the fun, Greece’s government now denies ever receiving the precise text leaked to the FT (there were various versions being drafted and redrafted last night)We've updated our post on last night's #eurogroup to reflect #Greece denial. Plus, more shenanigans! http://t.co/YxlJwvLELu 10.10am GMT In case you missed it last night, the head of Spain’s Podemos party has warned that the Greek bailout crisis is putting the European project at risk."Do not reject the Greek olive branch."The leader of Podemos writes for the Guardian http://t.co/jYmN2cAV62 10.06am GMT In Athens, Greek government insiders are hinting strongly that prime minister Alexis Tsipras put the kibosh on the eurogroup statement last night, telling our correspondent Helena Smith that “We can’t go back on the memorandum.” But there was also hope – and satisfaction - that mention of a bridging facility was also made in the joint statement that was eventually scuppered. “Little Greece has managed to change the discussion in Europe,” “We are going to stand our ground.”“It is highly likely that there will be another meeting,” one confided. “In fact there may very well be many. It would be far too dangerous to leave this just hanging in the air without resolution, don’t you think?” 9.53am GMT The delays to the start of the EU Summit gives Greek PM Alexis Tsipras more time to meet other world leaders (although not Merkel or Hollande, of course).He’s due to see Belgian premier Charles Michel, Latvia’s PM Laimdota Straujuma and the British premier David Cameron on the sidelines of the summit meeting.Puting announced Ukraine ceasefire to begin Sunday http://t.co/DI0yTu4nHp 9.36am GMT Finland’s prime minister remains confident that Greece and its creditors will reach a deal in time:“I understand the suffering, I understand the pain, but equally we have shown a lot of solidarity throughout this process and now we expect Greece to keep its bargain regardless of the election result,” “I was given and we were given a promise, that for the loan of one billion euros certain conditions shall be met. It is like any kind of international agreement or contract.“I would not be so sure that we are not going to find a solution on this. The euro group of financial ministers are meeting and I think we are all expecting Greece to give a proposal by Monday next week. We will see what they come up with. “There are basically two options here. Number one is that Greece continues the programme and we give an extension to that programme. The other option, which I don’t like personally, would be a so-called ‘dirty exit’, where Greece would be on its own trying to claw its way back to the markets. “I think Greek banks would have great troubles, I think a lot of the deposits would flee the country and it would cause general financial mayhem, especially in Greece, with a slight ripple effect.@EfiEfthimiou Stubb is always optimistic 9.15am GMT The euro is flat this morning, at $1.1334 against the US dollar.David Papier, market analyst at ETX Capital, says:Markets are erring on the side of caution over the ongoing Greek debt negotiations amid conflicting headlines on progress in the talks. 9.11am GMT Even world leaders can’t be in two places at once. And with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande stuck at the Ukraine peace talks, the European Council summit will probably be delayed:Start of informal #EUCO today likely to be delayed due to Minsk talks 8.58am GMT Make that 4%:#Greece Athens market up 4.0%, banks +10.4% 8.54am GMT The Athens stock market is calm in early trading, despite last night’s deadlock.The main stock index has risen by 2.5%, with bank shares leading the way: 8.40am GMT Greek bond yields remain at alarmingly high levels this morning, but at least they haven’t deteriorated much further:Greek Bond yields open mixed amid debt standoff. 2yr Yield 15bps higher at 21.4%, 5yr Yield at 16.7%, 10yr at 10.4%. pic.twitter.com/ayW0xVapQm 8.36am GMT Sweden’s central bank just surprised the markets by cutting interest rates into negative territory, from 0% to -0.1%.The Riksbank also announced it will buy 10bn krona of government bonds, to further ease monetary policy.Swedish QE! 8.32am GMT Back in Brussels, Christine Lagarde has just announced a new bailout facility for Ukraine, and a four-year reform programme.Lagarde is telling reporters that the International Monetary Fund has provisionally agreed a $17.5bn extended fund facility, three weeks after president Petro Poroshenko made the request at Davos.The European summit in Brussels is due to start in three hours but the leaders of France and Germany are still in Minsk. 8.23am GMT Greek journalist Katerina Paraschou of euro2day confirms that Alexis Tsipras’s government blocked last night’s eurogroup draft statement because it referred to an “extension”.Lost in translation... Varoufakis and Dragasakis signed the draft and the Government vetoed. It mentioned the hated word "extension"After last night's uproarious Eurogroup, it's obious that Tsipras needs to deal with all the components of his party..Last week President Holllande urged Tsipras to meet Merkel asap. Yet Tsipras won't even have formal meeting at Brussels summit. #gametheoryIrreconcilable breakdown? Greece and eurogroup need a mediator and shrink http://t.co/Kxjwi8mNKG 8.14am GMT Last night’s talks failed because neither side would give ground, says Gary Jenkins of LNG Capital. That’s why the prepared statement was seemingly torpedoed by Athens: ‘Extending and successfully concluding the present programme...’ Is not the deal that Mr Tsipras has been telling the people of Greece he would achieve.The real agreement would appear to be that the EU will reduce the level of the primary surplus required and allow Greece to spend the money saved as they wish. There might well be some kind of side agreement that if the Greek government does exactly what it says it will do regarding tax collection etc. and sticks to the terms of the deal then maybe the EU will revisit the idea of linking all or some of the debt to growth. 8.08am GMT Finland’s prime minister, Alex Stubb, is maintaining a hard line on Greece, according to quotes hitting the news wires.Stubb has warned that Greece faces a “dirty exit’ unless it continues its bailout programme, which expires in under three weeks:*STUBB: GREEK `DIRTY EXIT' WOULD CAUSE MAYHEM, RIPPLE EFFECTSHe has elections in April RT @lemasabachthani: *FINNISH PM: GREECE CONTINUES PROGRAM OR FACES `DIRTY EXIT' 8.05am GMT 8.00am GMT Now this is fascinating. The eurogroup ministers did apparently agree a statement last night... only for the Athens government to reject it at the last minute.Today the Eurogroup took stock of the current situation in Greece and the state of the current adjustment programme. In this context, the Eurogroup has engaged in an intensive dialogue with the new Greek authorities.The Greek authorities have expressed their commitment to a broader and stronger reform process aimed at durably improving growth prospects. At the same time, the Greek authorities reiterated their unequivocal commitment to the financial obligations to all their creditors.@SpiegelPeter @ftbrussels Might I suggest that you refrain from dubious claims based on even more dubious leaks? It's rather unseemly 7.45am GMT Nervous investors have driven the price of Germany’s two-year bonds to a record high. That means they are paying even more for the privilege of holding German debt; the yields (or interest rates) on its two, three and five-year bonds are already negative, and have hit new record lows this morning.#German two-year yield drops to record-low (to -0.225%) after Greek Talks, CPI pic.twitter.com/Xuck70KVEz 7.40am GMT Last night’s debacle is a reminder that Greece could be forced to implement capital controls if a deal isn’t reached, warns Robin Bew of the Economist Intelligence Unit:#EU and #Greece can’t even agree talks about talks. Real risk of bank runs forcing capital controls. We rate exit chances at 40% 7.34am GMT Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the Greek bailout crisis, and other key events across the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.The Greek crisis has taken a disappointing turn overnight, after yesterday’s eurogroup meeting in Brussels failed to agree a blueprint for future talks.Will people be starting work in Athens or elsewhere? Not between now and Monday, because we need to have common ground on the process forward.”I was given a wonderful opportunity and a very warm welcome to present our views, our analysis, our proposals both regarding the substance and regarding the road map.”#Greece spokesperson: No Scheduled Meeting Between Greek PM Tsipras & German Chancellor Merkel Scheduled Today, Informal Meet Possible ~RTRSToday's economic news: Bank of England publishes Inflation Report - its outlook for UK economy - at 10.30am Continue reading...
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