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Monday, June 18, 2012

Greek election: scramble to form coalition to steer country through crisis

New Democracy leader begins quest to create government while leftist leader declares he will continue to oppose austerity

Emerging as the frontrunner of a nailbiting election seen as decisive for Greece's future in the eurozone, the conservative New Democracy leader, Antonis Samaras, began the arduous quest to build a coalition on Sunday night with an appeal to form a government of "national salvation".

New Democracy narrowly beat Syriza, an alliance of radical leftists, winning 29.53% of the vote against 27.12% for the coalition led by Alexis Tsipras. Samaras called the result a victory for Europe.

"The Greek people today voted for the European course of Greece and that we remain in the euro," Samaras declared in a victory speech. "This is an important moment for Greece and the rest of Europe," he insisted, saying that Athens would honour the commitments it made in exchange for rescue loans from the EU and IMF.

It had been hoped that the election – following an indecisive ballot on 6 May – would help clear a political landscape marred by escalating polarization and growing extremism. Sunday's poll failed to do either.

As the scramble began to put together a government that can steer Greece through its worst crisis in modern history, Syriza's charismatic leader said that no matter what government was formed, it would face extraordinary opposition from his party.

"From Monday the struggle will continue," he said. "We will be vindicated. The future does not belong to those who terrorise, but to those who hope."

Time is of the essence if the crisis-hit country is to end weeks of political paralysis and form a government.

But the inability of any party to win an outright majority, and the strength of the turnout for Syriza, will ensure that Greece's attempt to re-find political equilibrium will by anything but easy.

Analysts last night said the young firebrand Tsipras – until just a few weeks ago barely known outside the borders of Greece as the head of a party that garnered a mere 4.6% of the vote in 2009 — was exactly where he wanted to be: "a close second".

On a platform of rejecting the onerous terms on which Athens has been able to keep its debt-choked economy afloat, the charismatic leader has been able to capture Greeks from all walks of life, not least supporters of the socialist Pasok party who have been infuriated by repeated wage and pension cuts.

In opposition, controlling anti-austerity protests and pressure on the street, there is widespread consensus that the radical leftists are bound to pick up support. A weak government mandated to pass yet more unpopular austerity measures could ultimately collapse. Many do not exclude fresh elections by the end of the year.

"There is widespread suspicion that to come a close second was Syriza's ultimate aim," said Dimitris Keridis, a professor of political science at Athens' Panteion University. "As a very strong and powerful opposition it will be able to bide time until new elections, when it could easily win an absolute majority. Tsipras is up and coming and he will use the time to mature."

Had Syriza come first, it would have come under pressure to dilute its vehement anti-austerity rhetoric. "The only way to disarm it of its populism is to have it in power," said Keridis who added that the night belonged to those Greeks who "against their hearts" had voted for the conservatives as the only assured way of keeping their country in the eurozone.

Pollsters say that countless leftwing Greeks, fearing for the country's future in the euro zone, abandoned traditional allegiances and threw their weight behind New Democracy and Samaras, a hawkish leader who is widely disliked.

The spectre of further social and political unrest in a country that is already on a knife-edge was highlighted by the good showing of the neo–Nazi Golden Dawn party, which won 7% of the vote – almost what it clinched in May when, for the first time since the collapse of military rule, the far-rightists were catapulted into parliament.

The extremists have shot up in popularity in areas that are struggling with crime, illegal immigrants and worsening poverty, the result of successive waves of wage and pension reductions demanded by foreign creditors. But some pollsters also attributed their popularity to the on-screen assault by the party's official spokesman earlier this month of two leftwing female politicians; one described it as a "huge vote winner".

Across Greece's divisive political spectrum there was speculation that Samaras would be able to form a viable coalition with the socialist Pasok and the small Democratic left – parties that have also agreed to accept the onerous terms of bailout funds even if they, too, want to renegotiate the package.

Insiders, however, said that Samaras' own position at the head of such an administration was likely "to be a problem". Announcing that there wasn't "a single day to lose", Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of Pasok, said it was imperative that Greece acquire a government of "national responsibility", intimating that his own condition would be that Syriza took part.

Pro-bailout parties now constitute 50% of the electorate. But with the other half also vehemently opposed to the austerity policies dictated by foreign lenders, Greece's rollercoaster ride is unlikely to end soon. It is now well into its fifth year of recession, with unemployment at a record 22% and worsening levels of poverty leaving thousands of Greeks destitute and homeless. Resistance to further austerity measures is only going to grow.


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