How the world sees Greece
DIKILI, Turkey -- Residents watched uneasily from the shore of this seaside resort town in western Turkey as the first migrants were returned from Greece under a newly implemented plan to cope with Europe's refugee crisis. "I wanted to spend my last few ...
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ATHENS: Greece on Monday resumes reform talks with its international creditors, including the IMF, amid leaks claiming the global lender was toying with the idea of a Greek default. With IMF chief Christine Lagarde dismissing this as "nonsense", Greek ...
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ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece's government has started new talks with bailout creditors amid a dispute over a wiretapped and leaked conversation between foreign officials involved in the Greek bailout on the negotiations. Finance Minister Euclid ...
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[trader NYSE]Reuters Stocks are once again rallying after another “mini crash” at the start of the year. We’ve had three of these things since October 2014 without much to show for it. As Adam warned Boom & Bust readers earlier this week, stocks have basically gone nowhere for a year and a half. After the first crash in late 2014, stocks were able to eke out a new high into May of last year. But since then, stocks have failed to make new highs despite strong attempts like this one. Ten months without a new high. That’s only happened at 11 other points in history. And in eight of those instances, we saw a new bear market follow. That’s almost 75%! Even after the 20% correction in 2011, the only major correction in this bubble since March of 2009, stocks hit new highs within 10 months. We’re moving into dangerous territory here. Two weeks ago I referred to this as a “rounded top pattern,” and we’re testing that trend line which should peak in the 2,070-2,095 area on the S&P 500. If it breaks that level, then a new high would be imminent. But here’s why I think that’s unlikely… Coming into the May top and more-so since, small cap stocks have clearly underperformed large caps. That is the classic sign of a major top! The dumb money continues to pour in, buying well-known large caps… while the smart money exits after having focused on buying the broader universe of small caps where there is much more opportunity. Your typical investor doesn’t have the sophistication to play that market. But while they may be able to find some good opportunities in this area… the small caps as a whole have already entered bear market territory, and have no chance of hitting new highs! And that drags on the broader market. Earlier this year I pointed out the equally weighted Value Line index, which showed the typical stock had already turned bearish. While the S&P 500 was down 15%, this “typical stock” was down 23%, and the small caps were down 27%. If you’ve got some stocks still flying high while a large group of them are sucking wind, then it’s only a matter of time before the market becomes stretched too thin and rips apart. At worst, you’ve got the biotech sector that’s been down 40% recently, after bubbling up 600% since early 2009. No chance of new highs there either! Not a good sign to see the leading sector tank. Even if the large caps _did_ hit slight new highs, it would only worsen this divergence between large caps and small caps. That would signal even more conclusively that a major long-term top is in. Just look at the environment we’re in. Most other major international markets have already hit bear market levels. China’s Shanghai Composite down 50% at its worst… The DAX in Germany down 30%… The FTSE in Britain down 23%… The Japan Nikkei down 29%… And don’t even ask about Greece and Italy! The last potential holdouts are the large-cap indices in the U.S… otherwise known as “the best house in a bad neighborhood.” The S&P 500 has gotten to within 3% of its all-time high. But there should be strong resistance at the 2,095 level just above here. Here’s my favorite chart to show why this is not the time to buy stocks, but sell them. This shows the expected returns over the next 10 years based on stock valuations as a percentage of GDP today. As the correlation shows, this has been very accurate in the past: [valuation]Reuters It says that you should expect to lose 1.5% a year for the next 10 years, which means you would lose near 20% over the next decade. I, of course, expect worse as we are in the once-in-a-lifetime winter season where stock crashes are the most devastating. I’ll take a 10-year Treasury at 2% annual no-risk returns over that any day! In the update to _The Demographic Cliff _in paperback I favored a peak in May 2015, but allowed for a substantial correction, followed by one slight new high in 2016. After that, I expect the next great crash towards 5,500 by late 2017. I still favor the high already being in. But either way, the upside gains are limited to 5% or so in the next few weeks or months, and the downside is 70%-plus in the next two years. I have continued to warn that it’s better to get out a bit early than too late as bubbles burst at least twice as fast as they build… just ask the Chinese. NOW WATCH: Here's what popular dog breeds looked like before and after 100 years of breeding
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[donald trump]Reuters/Jim Bourg Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has again stirred the pot by dismissing NATO as "obsolete." Trump has contended that the 28-nation military alliance needs to be radically rethought and framed away from its Cold War structure toward an organization more capable of fighting threats like ISIS. This argument ignores the multiple operations that NATO has conducted to bring stability to Europe after the Cold War and also in the fight against terrorism. Below, we have explained why NATO continue to be important and how its global reach is as important as ever for both Europe and the wider world. MEMBER NATIONS RNGS Reuters First formed in 1949, NATO was originally composed of just 12 members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK, and the US. In the following decades, NATO continued to expand, and it now includes 28 member nations throughout almost all of North America, Western, Central, and Eastern Europe, and a foot in the Middle East with Turkey. And NATO is now moving toward a new expansion by welcoming Montenegro into the alliance. Although the Balkan country is not yet a member, it has begun accessions talks. Additionally, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Macedonia are aspiring members of the military alliance. GLOBAL REACH NATO Although NATO is based almost exclusively in Europe, and was primarily formed as a military alliance against the Soviet Union, it has a global reach and has participated in military operations throughout the world. Globally, NATO is playing a role in combating Somali piracy off the Horn of Africa. Operation Ocean Shield, launched in 2009, has helped to drastically cut down on piracy and has helped stabilize shipping lanes in the region. Close by in Ethiopia, NATO bases its support to the African Union. The operation helps provide training and operational capacities at the Union's request. And in Afghanistan, NATO continues to lead Resolute Support, a noncombat mission that provides training to the Afghan military. In Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014, NATO also played a key role in combat operations in the country. From August 11, 2003, to 2011, NATO led the International Security Assistance Force. And NATO is likely to play a major role in helping to combat ISIS, especially now following the terror attacks in member nations Brussels and Turkey. A majority of the nations that are part of the anti-ISIS coalition are already NATO members. FUNDING NATO NATO's military capabilities are expected to be collectively paid for by every member state. Ideally, each member state is expected to spend at least 2% of its annual GDP on defense spending. However, following the end of the Cold War and two decades of relative peace, the vast majority of NATO states do not meet their budgetary goals. In this regard, Donald Trump is slightly right to question the ongoing worth of the NATO alliance. According to NATO's latest annual report released on June 22, 2015, only Estonia, Poland, the UK, Greece, and the US were projected to meet the 2% spending threshold in 2015. This problem in spending caused then-NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to warn member nations in 2014 against becoming "free-riders" under the umbrella of US military protection. But the gap in military spending is not the largest problem facing NATO. Instead, Lisa Aronsson, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council, has argued that "duplication, poor readiness, and a lack of deployability," are the biggest problems facing European militaries, and that increased spending won't necessarily solve them. SEE THE REST OF THE STORY AT BUSINESS INSIDER
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The last emergency won't soon be forgotten -- yet nothing is being done to avoid a rerun. QuickTake Greece's Financial Odyssey The latest quarrel between Greece's government and the International Monetary Fund, one of its official creditors, only ...
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ATHENS, Greece (AP) Under heavy security, authorities on the Greek islands of Lesbos and Chios deported 202 migrants and refugees on boats bound for Turkey the first to be sent back as part of a controversial European Union plan to limit the amount ...
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