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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Troika Talks, Inner Government Disputes and Early Elections Scenarios

A last-minute disagreement between Greek Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis, Samaras advisor Chrysanthos Lazaridis and government VP Evangelos Venizelos has caused a delay in today’s troika meeting. On Tuesday, the Greek government completed its first round of negotiations with the representatives of the country’s international lenders. The two sides reportedly discussed the budget for 2014 and 2015, fiscal targets and health ministry issues. “We discussed the budget for 2014 and 2015. They heard our arguments,” said a senior finance ministry official. The official declined to elaborate on the primary surplus target for 2015. An agreement on the issue of the 2015 primary surplus does appear to have been reached. The government’s demands to lower the target from 3 to 2.4 percent of GDP was opposed by the troika. Finance ministry sources told “Kathimerini” that Athens agreed to include the 3 percent target in next year’s budget. Its draft version, set to be tabled in Parliament on Monday, will be finalized in November. Greece’s Finance ministry sources stressed, however, that an agreement had been reached by which the 3 percent target would be achieved without additional measures. Delay in Troika meeting caused by Hardouvelis-Lazaridis conflict Today’s latest inner-governmental dispute was triggered by the potential participation of two PM confidants in the upcoming troika talks. Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis appears bothered by the fact that Antonis Samaras has allegedly appointed his two closest advisers, Chrysanthos Lazaridis and Stavros Papastavrou, to be his “eyes and ears” in the negotiations. Hardouvelis reportedly considered the move an indication of Samaras’s lack of trust in him. He reacted by informing the PM’s confidants that he was to be the sole source of information for the upcoming discussions with the troika representatives. Lazaridis was present in the first day of negotiations, however. His presence agitated Hardouvelis, whose immediate response was a phone call to government VP Evangelos Venizelos, informing him of the PM’s representatives and reportedly asking him whether he wanted to send any representatives of his own to the meetings. According to sources in the Finance Ministry, Hardouvelis was so aggravated by Lazaridis’s presence that he refused to meet with the auditors until the issue had been resolved. SYRIZA anticipates early election in November The main opposition party SYRIZA, meanwhile, has been discussing possible election dates for weeks now. Following the numerous obstacles faced by the government over the last twenty days, Alexis Tsipras announced his intention to call for elections during a Tuesday meeting with the Political Secretariat of SYRIZA. Taking into account recent political developments, November 23 seems the most likely date for national elections to be held. SYRIZA claims that the upcoming elections for President of the Hellenic Republic will ultimately trigger national elections. However, owing to recent poll results which show SYRIZA leading comfortably over New Democracy, Tsipras could conceivably call for elections even earlier than the presidential elections. The situation puts Samaras into an incredibly difficult position. SYRIZA believes that elections will come either as an initiative of the coalition government in order to avoid a devastating defeat, or as a political accident, as the ruling coalition loses its momentum or the troika’s requirements go unapproved by the Greek Parliament. In every scenario, Alexis Tsipras foresees premature national elections as early as the first weeks of November. Speaking at a meeting of the Political Secretariat of SYRIZA, he announced that Greeks may even go to the polls  before the bank stress tests and the troika’s evaluations are complete.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT greece.greekreporter.com