Jose Manuel Barroso said an independent Scotland might have to reapply to the EU, but the yes campaign needn't give up
Given the success of Ukip in the south of the country, it is perhaps surprising that Scotland is currently the area of the UK most likely to find itself on the other side of the European Union's safe fortress. At least that is the point put forward by pro-unionists in the wake of comments by European commission president Jose Manuel Barroso. He stated in an interview with the BBC that Scotland would need to "reapply" to stay inside the European Union, in the event that we Scots decided to form an independent country.
The ramifications for the Yes Scotland campaign are potentially considerable. Does this mean that Scotland would be forced to join the euro? Would we end up sitting dismally behind Romania and Bulgaria in the queue to rejoin the EU? The greatest concern for nationalists will be that those Scots flirting with the idea of independence may well decide that the whole issue just sounds like too much hassle to justify a yes vote.
However, there are at least five good reasons why Barroso's comments should not sink nationalist hearts:
1. Even Barroso hasn't made up his mind yet
Barroso uses the terms "reapply" and "negotiate" interchangeably in his interview with the BBC – the unionist side of the debate has understandably chosen to focus on the former. While Scotland reapplying to the EU in order to set how many MEPs it would have, what voting rights it would hold and sorting out other largely administrative details is necessary, this could quite feasibly take the form of a discussion during the 18 months between the 2014 referendum date and an independent Scotland's first elections in 2016, a period during which Scotland would still be part of the UK and, consequently, still a part of the EU.
2. There are no precedents
For all the talk of legal processes and rules that have been set down in years gone by, the EU is a club that sets its own rule. There is no existing law or provision that cannot be overcome if the political will across the continent is to keep Scotland inside the club after 2014.
3. The rest of Europe has an interest in keeping us in
Scotland suddenly no longer being a member of the European Union would raise numerous serious issues for all current members. Would Spanish fishing boats no longer have access to Scottish waters? Would European students attending Scotland's fine universities require to pay expensive tuition fees? Would patients from European countries being tended in the Scottish NHS suddenly find they had medical bills to pay? These needless problems would almost surely be in all of Europe's best interests to avoid as painlessly as possible.
4. The door to the euro remains shut for now
The intention of the SNP is for Scotland to keep using sterling after independence, despite EU rules stating that new entrants should join the euro. Noting that this prospect would almost certainly ensure a No result at the referendum, it is key for nationalists to remind the public that the euro is effectively closed to new entrants while this economic turmoil continues. With the eurozone struggling to hold Greece, Ireland, Spain and Italy together, it would not be in the eurozone's interests to destabilise the position further by having a new country, for richer or poorer, joining the currency.
5. Who wouldn't want us?
The one question that I hope Scots consider above all else when they are told that Scotland would face a lengthy reapplication process to rejoin the European Union, rather than seamlessly negotiate a new settlement, is this: why wouldn't the EU want Scotland as a member? Rich in oil, wonderful scenery, excellent fishing, plenty of manufacturing to trade, numerous subsidiaries of European HQs inside our borders, progressive political parties, an ongoing renewables revolution to work with and a defence force with considerable experience and flexibility.
The Yes Scotland campaign seeks to create an independent country in an interdependent world, a philosophy that is lockstep with the goals of the European Union. It is therefore in nobody's best interests for Scotland to drop unnecessarily out of the EU in the aftermath of a yes victory in 2014. That fact should remain uppermost in Scottish minds amid the political posturing and philosophical postulating surrounding Scotland and the EU.
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