Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including Mario Draghi’s final press conference as president of the European Central Bank * Introduction: Draghi is leaving the ECB * PMIs: Germany in trouble, but France recovers 9.18am BST Bloomberg have produced this excellent thread showing Mario Draghi’s legacy - where he did well (holding the euro together) and where he fell short: THREAD 1/ Three words – “whatever it takes” – defined Mario Draghi’s time as ECB president, but he’s prouder of another number: 11 million jobs (via @fergalob & @jrandow ) https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/zIn5Fjvnnn 2/ Employment growth since 2013, when the euro zone emerged from its double-dip recession, is unequivocally Draghi’s biggest economic achievement https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/8Q1Km10iiB 3/ Looking deeper though, the picture is more complex. Germany has built on impressive job creation that started well before Draghi’s term. France can tell a similar tale, but labor markets in Spain and Greece still haven’t made up the lost ground https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/7faUjep5gm 4/ Regional differences are equally striking when analyzing economic growth. Aside from Greece and Cyprus, no country has done worse than Draghi’s native Italy in terms of GDP per head https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/AlBQdxNnsp 5/ Inflation over Draghi’s 8-year term has averaged 1.2% which, unlike with his predecessors, falls short of the goal of “below, but close to, 2%.” It was even negative at times – so Draghi can at least claim he beat deflation pic.twitter.com/m2Dol2bMiR 7/ One other key indicator the ECB uses to gauge its success is lending by banks to companies and households, and that has responded better to stimulus. At just under 4%, credit is expanding at three times the rate of GDP https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/SUh5ddeySO 8/ One small economy has taken an oversized chunk of Draghi’s attention: Draghi kept Greece’s lenders alive, by approving emergency liquidity, just long enough to allow a political solution that kept the country in the euro https://t.co/1rPCDAfETU pic.twitter.com/Zmw4JJ03g6 9/ For all the furor over a possible “Grexit” and the flirtations of factions in France and Italy with the idea of leaving the euro, membership has actually continued to grow. At the end of Draghi’s term, a measure of the probability of a breakup of the bloc is near a record low pic.twitter.com/RzLGU4Q6fP 9.05am BST IN THE CITY, SHARES IN ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND HAVE FALLEN ALMOST 3% TO THE BOTTOM OF THE FTSE 100 LEADERBOARD. The bank has taken another hit on PPI compensation this morning, setting aside another £900m for customers missold payment protection insurance. Related: RBS posts quarterly loss after extra £900m put aside for PPI claims Continue reading...
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