[POLITICO London Playbook] Welcome to POLITICO’s special edition European Elections Playbook series. I’m Ryan Heath, political editor at POLITICO, and I’ll be exploring the intersection of national and European politics in 15 EU countries in weekly newsletters up until the May 2019 poll. This week’s edition comes to you in partnership with Peter Bárdy and Pavol Štrba at the Slovak news outlet Aktuality. Next week: Greece, in association with Kathimerini. View in your browser | Read this newsletter in Slovakian VISIT THE DEDICATED SLOVAKIA PAGE ON POLITICO’S EU ELECTIONS HUB. Like what you’re reading? Sign up for our European Elections Playbooks and occasional major news alerts. THE BASICS POLITICAL TURNING POINT: In February 2018, Slovakians woke up to a terrifying prospect: With the brutal murder of 27-year-old investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírova, the country’s political system — currently led by the social democratic Smer party — was spiralling further into corruption and gangsterism. Kuciak had been investigating links between the Italian ‘Ndrangheta mafia and close associates of then Prime Minister Robert Fico. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Bratislava to protest the killing under the slogan “For A Decent Slovakia.” The demonstrations — Slovakia’s most significant protests since the fall of communism in 1989 — ultimately forced Fico and his interior minister to resign. Slovaks have continued to make their voices heard, most recently in protests reacting to Fico’s latest attack on the media earlier this month. But when it comes to the ballot box, they have been less vocal: Only 13 percent voted in the 2014 European election, the lowest turnout in all EU countries. BUT HOW MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED? Fico may have been forced from office, but many doubt he was forced from power. Polls have barely shifted since street protests began — the ruling party is polling today at 22 percent, the same rating it achieved the day Fico resigned (March 15), and just 3 percent below its result the day Kuciak was murdered (February 19). Fico has also become a rather successful internet troll and journalist-basher: One of his key campaigns has been to spread the theory that protests against him were financed by Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros. **A MESSAGE FROM THE EUROPEAN GAMING AND BETTING ASSOCIATION (EGBA): The European Commission needs to fix the damaging fragmentation of consumer protection rules for online gambling to ensure players have a high level of protection across all EU member countries. While the vast majority of gamblers play for fun and in a responsible way, approximately 1 percent are problem gamblers — and more needs to be done to protect them.** WELCOME TO SLOVA-KIA: From Kia to Volkswagen to Jaguar, the country produces more cars for capita than any other country on earth — over 1 million cars a year in a country of 5.4 million people. Next in line are electric cars: The European commissioner from Slovakia, Maros Šefčovič, opened the country’s first ultra-fast car battery charging station last week. One 15-minute charge will get you 400 kilometers. BUT ITS CAR-DRIVEN TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN AN UNEVEN ONE. Slovakia is one of the EU’s most regionally divided countries. Bratislava, close to Vienna, is the 6th richest city in the European Union. The Slovak capital’s GDP is 184 percent of the EU average. At the other end of the scale, eastern Slovakia’s GDP is just 53 percent of the EU average. In the dominant car industry, those making Jaguar cars can expect to earn around €715 a month before tax. Just getting the Jaguar plant took millions in controversial subsidies, and the traffic in the nearby historical town of Nitra is getting worse. Then there’s the fact that the country’s highways are still a nightmare for many. Construction of Slovakia’s main highway, between Bratislava in the west and Košice in the east, began in 1972. Forty-six years later, some 150 km of the 510-km route have yet to be built. That’s not all the EU’s fault, or even democratic-era Slovakia’s fault, but it’s a surprise given the EU’s sacred belief in the value of its regional subsidies and infrastructure funds. EUROPEAN TIGER OR EUROPEAN DETROIT? Slovakia’s push to become a major car-manufacturing hub also puts it at risk of becoming Europe’s Detroit, should efforts to diversify its economy fail. POWER & POLITICS With the next Slovakian national election due in 2020, next year’s European Parliament election is the first big electoral test for the government since the political crisis triggered by Kuciak’s murder prompted Fico’s resignation. MORE RESIGNATIONS AHEAD? Miroslav Lajčák has said he will resign as foreign minister if the Slovak government refuses to ratify the United Nations pact on migration. Slovak PM Peter Pellegrini told reporters Sunday after the EU’s Brexit summit that the country would not support the global pact “under any circumstances.” Slovakia will need to find a new minister “if it takes the road of xenophobia, intolerance,” Lajčák said in response. Fico has pushed for Slovakia to reject the pact, and a vacancy caused by Lajčák’s resignation would offer a simple route for his return to government. A FRAGMENTED POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Ruling party Smer is polling just above 20 percent, with another eight parties clustered between 4 and 13 percent, according to the latest figures. EUROSKEPTIC FORCES ON THE RISE: In the latest Slovakian opinion poll, some 40 percent of voters say they would vote for one of the country’s four Euroskeptic parties: Freedom and Solidarity, the People’s Party, SME Rodina (We Are Family), and the Slovak National party (SNS), which are all on the right of the political spectrum. NEW-PARTY FACTOR: We Are Family and SNS are polling at a combined 21 percent of the vote, putting them on track for a combined three seats out of 14. SNS is best described as a newly re-awakened party. Although once a part of the governments of former PMs Vladimír Mečiar and Fico, it has been dormant for years. WHAT SLOVAKS SAY THEY’RE WORRIED ABOUT: More than three times as many Slovaks think their voice counts in the EU — 43 percent — as bothered to vote in 2014. But only three in 10 think the EU is headed in the right direction, marginally more than the one in four who think Slovakia is headed in the right direction. DATA, VISUALIZED How much Slovaks earn and what they think about the EU. The issues that concern Slovaks and other Europeans. Slovakia polling results and predictions. Voting rights information in Slovakia. Slovak turnout in 2014 EU election. [Graphic] 2019 PREDICTIONS WHO’S AHEAD? Polling numbers shift slightly with each new national poll, but there has been no fundamental change in more than two years. Smer is in first place and the conservative Freedom and Solidarity party is in second, with a host of smaller parties jockeying to get into double-digit polling numbers. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE TURNOUT: Smer, currently polling around 22 percent, is likely to get around 47,000 votes more than Freedom and Solidarity. But 80 times that number of voters — some 3.8 million — didn’t bother showing up and casting a ballot the last time around, in 2014. In other words, Smer could easily be beaten if more Slovaks turn up to vote. WHY THE BAD TURNOUT? A favorite Slovak saying is, “If you love it, there’s nothing to think about.” That may go a long way toward explaining Slovak turnout at EU elections. A majority of Slovaks profess to supporting the EU. Unlike its neighbors, the country joined the EU and its leadership has remained steadfastly pro-EU. THE YOUTH VOTE: “Only 6 percent of young people came out to vote, but when I talk to them they are very pro-EU, very environmentally conscious, they speak languages. I am still struggling with that number,” Commission Vice President Maros Šefčovič told Playbook. WHO IS RUNNING? Šefčovič will lead the social democrat list, after withdrawing from the Commission president race. Richard Sulík, the Slovakian Nigel Farage — and a favorite on German television because of his fluent German — will not stand again at the head of the second biggest party, the Freedom and Solidarity party list, Dennik reported. Instead, Eugen Jurzyca, an economist and former education minister will lead party’s slate for the 2019 election. Former journalist Lucia Ďuriš Nicholsonová will also be a candidate. COULD EMMANUEL MACRON RECRUIT IN SLOVAKIA? It would be slim pickings. The most likely source of recruits for the French president’s liberal push would be disaffected MEPs from the ruling party, or the centrist Most-Híd party, which is aligned with the European People’s Party and one of the four parties in the ruling coalition. Possible high-profile individual recruits include former Most-Híd Justice Minister Lucia Žitňanská and MP František Šebej. Marek Maďarič, a former social democrat minister of culture, was rumored to be considering an independent bid for the Slovak presidency in 2019 but is still not officially back in politics. EXTRA SEAT FOR SLOVAKIA IN 2019 ELECTION: Slovakia will go from 13 to 14 seats as part of a (partly Brexit-inspired) update to Parliament’s seat allocation. Currently, Smer is on track to win four seats, while second-placed Freedom and Solidarity is on track to win two. We also predict far-right People’s Party and conservative Ordinary People will win two seats each. The remaining four seats will be spread among minor parties that skew right. See a regularly updated prediction on the Slovakia country page of POLITICO’s EU election hub. Because there are two parties from the European Conservatives and Reformists in Slovakia — Freedom and Solidarity, and Ordinary People — the right-wing European grouping could become as strong as the Socialists and Democrats. Parties with less than 5 percent of the vote will be excluded from winning a seat in Parliament. BY THE NUMBERS: Ladbroke’s betting odds: Betting on Smer (S&D) to win the most seats will gain you €1.66 for each euro wagered, if they win. The return for Freedom and Solidarity (ECR) is €2.75, and for People’s Party (Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy) is €5. MEET THE MEPS Slovakia’s delegation consists of nine men and four women. None of the country’s 13 MEPs have made it onto POLITICO’s annual “MEPs who matter” lists. PÁL CSÁKY, a European People’s Party MEP, represents the Hungarian community in Slovakia, making him part of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s sphere of influence. MONIKA BEŇOVÁ, an MEP for the Socialists & Democrats, and ANNA ZÁBORSKÁ, an EPP MEP, haven’t authored a rapporteur’s report since 2015. Eduard Kukan is one of the European Parliament’s few independent MEPs. Vladimír Maňka is a member of the Parliament bureau — the institution’s executive committee — and a quaestor (or the Parliament’s version of a school prefect). Miroslav Mikolášik, József Nagy and IVAN ŠTEFANEC, all EPP MEPs, and BRANISLAV ŠKRIPEK and JANA ŽITŇANSKÁ, both members of ECR, are the only members of the delegation to have authored a rapporteur parliament report in 2018. Richard Sulík is best known as Slovakia’s Nigel Farage, as a result of his views of migrants and Greece’s membership of the eurozone (he has low opinions of both). Boris Zala, an S&D MEP, has never written a parliamentary report and doesn’t bother to even publish his CV. Had long career as a journalist and in national politics before election to the European Parliament. PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW Europe’s vice-president for energy, Maroš Šefčovič, was Slovakia’s first contender for European Commission president, before withdrawing earlier this month and backing Commission First Vice President Frans Timmermans as _Spitzenkandidat _instead. Šefčovič spoke to Playbook last Friday. HIS 2019 PLAN: The Slovak commissioner will focus on a “visionary” state of the energy union report in February, before turning to the election campaign. He also intends to push for a new — greener, more innovative — approach to industrial policy and a most assertive trade policy at the Socialist congress in Lisbon in early December. Ultimately, he expects to be nominated for a third term as commissioner, he said. “Pellegrini confirmed my nomination and I hope to be vice president for the economic modernization of Europe,” he said. TOP ELECTION REQUEST: He wants national politicians to “put their heart into it” to help boost turnout, instead of letting the election be cast as “something for a narrow group of European activists.” “We cannot allow nationalists to steal the feeling of patriotism,” he said. “You can be a proud Slovak and a proud European at the same time.” SPREAD THE WORD: Pro-Europeans have to use more effective tools to communicate a “positive message” in order to counter the “single issue campaigns” that nationalist and populists spread “with ease on social media,” he said. Slovaks are mostly pro-EU, according to Šefčovič, but are subjected to bad coverage of what the EU does. “When we got only silly coverage of the [2014] election about salaries, vacuum cleaners and bananas, they ask: Why bother? We need to debate serious stuff.” THE SOLUTION? Politicians need to talk to European voters “constantly, not just in campaigns” in order to contain Euroskepticism, the Slovak commissioner said, adding that he’s grateful Slovakia hasn’t joined neighboring Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in creating headaches for the EU. **A MESSAGE FROM THE EUROPEAN GAMING AND BETTING ASSOCIATION (EGBA): Most EU member states either have a licensing regime for online gambling or, like Slovakia, are currently in the process of adopting one. Slovakia’s new gambling law is currently under discussion in the national Parliament and EGBA hopes the new law will be adopted quickly. However, for the new law to be a success, it must ensure that the vast majority of Slovakian players are playing with the online gambling websites which will be licensed and regulated in Slovakia. This will allow players to be protected under Slovakian consumer protection laws, which is the main purpose for regulating this sector. To enable this, a viable licensing regime which offers competitive products is necessary to provide consumer choice and keep players within the regulated market.**
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