[Zika Virus Brazil]AP The World Health Organization has declared the Zika outbreak a “global emergency” and put the virus in the same threat category as Ebola. Some American scientists pushed for the emergency status, pointing out that the failure to respond quickly contributed to Ebola’s spread. The Obama administration, however, has downplayed the Zika threat, saying Zika is not comparable to Ebola. The Centers for Disease Control similarly issued calm and soothing assurances. Zika is not directly comparable to Ebola, which is far more lethal and requires direct contact to spread. But it can be a much bigger problem in the long run. WHY THE ZIKA VIRUS SPREADS SO FAST The primary Zika carrier is the Aedes mosquito, which exists in every continent but Antarctica. Zika outbreaks, therefore, have occurred in South America, Mexico, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. There is little doubt that Aedes mosquitos will eventually bring Zika to US shores, too. Texas and Florida are good candidates for the first infestation. It could spread slowly through mosquito populations. Or one good storm could instantly carry the virus northward. To complicate things and add to the fear, the CDC reported the first case of sexually transmitted Zika virus in Dallas. THE ZIKA THREAT AT THE RIO OLYMPICS Right now, the biggest concern is the infection in Brazil where the Olympics will take place in a few months. For most adults, an infection is like a mild flu. There may have been a few cases of Zika-related Guillain-Barre, which causes paralysis in adults. The number one fear, however, is evidence that the virus poses particular risks to unborn children. There appears to be a connection between infection in the womb and various neurological and autoimmune disorders. One of the most crippling birth defects associated with Zika is microcephaly (Greek for “small head”). Anecdotal evidence is compelling. 4,000 Brazilian microcephaly births have been recorded since 2014 when Zika showed up, which is a staggering 25-fold increase. Not surprisingly, female athletes training in Brazil are being extremely careful. They go outside only when necessary and then fully clothed with bounteous applications of mosquito repellent. Brazilian authorities have also told pregnant women not to come to the Olympic games. Salvador’s government took even more drastic measures. It has recommended to avoid pregnancy until 2018, and I’m sure that we’ll see a decline in birthrates. [Brazil Soccer Fans]AP LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE ZIKA OUTBREAK Fertility rates in Salvador are now only slightly below replacement rate. The consequences of this directive could be seen for decades. Even if birthrates recover after a vaccine is developed, it would produce a mini-baby boom, which causes its own problems. Imagine the impact of widespread infestation by Zika-carrying mosquitos in countries already struggling with depopulation, such as Japan and South Korea. Microcephaly is a terrifying disease. Not only does it bring tragedy to entire families, you can’t see it coming as you do Ebola, for example. You might not even know you were infected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see birthrates fall well below one child per family in some countries. Japan’s struggle to support an increasingly expensive older population and pay its enormous national debt would be even more difficult, if not impossible. Within a few years, we could see cinematic apocalypse scenarios. On the other hand, I’m closely following scientists working on biotechnologies almost totally outside of public awareness. They’re already making progress toward developing vaccines and cures. Governments—which are typically obstructive with novel technologies—will have no choice but to ease regulatory burdens and accelerate the development of these new approaches to viruses. SUBSCRIBE TO _TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES_ Read about breakthrough treatments, life-saving technologies, and other biotech transformations that promise longer, more fulfilling lives, and also the potential for outsized market returns. Sign up for the _Transformational Technologies_ publication now. NOW WATCH: Uber agrees to pay $28.5 million to riders — see if you may be eligible for a refund
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