HTT Cities are the defining political entity of this century. But what makes cities move ahead? At the most fundamental level, mobility makes urban activity possible. Creating and sustaining a transportation network is one of the oldest and most important functions of government, opening the doors to commerce and human interaction. Technology is another force that is deeply intertwined with the evolution of urban environments. It's leading cities to more dynamic transportation systems where people shift seamlessly between multiple modes of transport, including bicycle, pedestrian, automobile, and rail. Let’s remember that the ultimate goal of cities is to facilitate our lives — home, work and play — in a coherent way, so that moving from place to place is easy, equitable and enjoyable. As we’ve seen throughout history, there’s a lot of room for innovation within this framework. The National League of Cities' new report, City of the Future: Mobility & Technology, examines current transportation trends to forecast future developments in the urban environment. We delved into the transportation plans from the 50 largest cities as well as the largest cities in each state. What we found is a widening gap between where technology is rapidly taking us and where cities are planning to go. Only 6% of cities’ transportation plans consider the potential effect of driverless technology. Just 3% of these plans look at companies like Uber and Lyft — even though they operate in 60 of the 68 markets. Some 50% of the plans contain explicit recommendations for new highway construction, while only 12% clearly state no new highways are planned. This doesn’t necessarily align with what people increasingly want, and reflects in many ways the disruptive speed at which recent technologies have come online. As cities create new plans or refresh their existing ones, here are four critical areas they must consider: 1. DEMOGRAPHIC AND WORKFORCE TRENDS WILL IMPACT MOBILITY IN CITIES Major urban areas will continue to grow. Baby boomers will retire and younger generations will dominate the workforce. Commuting patterns will change, with the rush hour being dispersed over longer time periods. 2. HOW WE PAY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE WILL CHANGE We see a national infrastructure bank most likely being established. State infrastructure banks have already been growing at a rapid pace and we expect that to only continue. The primary take-away is that the continued growth in public/private financing options will change the way many transportation projects are evaluated. 3. PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MOBILITY SYSTEMS WILL GROW IN THE COMING YEARS We will start to see public transit go driverless. We are already seeing this in limited runs now in multiple cities in Switzerland, Greece, The Netherlands, and China. Cities will also see a reduction in single occupancy vehicles, enabling two competing trends: cities redeveloping more densely and some metros sprawling further. Policy choices matter greatly here. Additionally, there will be greater coordination between the public sector and private companies to create truly comprehensive mobility systems. 4. NEW MODES OF TRANSPORTATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE For the first time in generations, we will truly see new ways to around. Driverless technology, first widely deployed in fleet vehicles and buses, will greatly impact cities. HTT WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE The impacts of these trends will be felt in both small and large cities — the outcomes, though, may very well be different. Larger cities will gain added development potential in their downtowns as roads are recaptured for people. In smaller cities, self-driving technology may greatly impact industries like trucking and the companies that have grown around it. Furthermore, when cars drive themselves, the reductions in traffic fines will affect smaller communities relying more on this revenue stream. Everywhere, though, we will see increased safety outcomes, reduced traffic, and fewer traffic fatalities. In recent years, biking has been on the uptick in cities throughout the US. But in order to reach critical mass, technology will need to help get more people on two wheels. Electric assist technology will likely make bike commuting more attractive. High speed rail systems will also be a reality in the east and west coast travel corridors. This will impact transportation networks throughout California, and the proposed enhanced Amtrak Acela line will create positive impacts throughout the Washington-Boston corridor. Finally, we will see several new transportation options become mainstream. Entrepreneurs of all stripes are figuring out new ways (and old ways reimagined) to move people around. Whether that means urban gondolas, pods, foldable cars, or even a hyperloop, we can safely assume that there will be something in the coming decades that greatly impacts cityscapes in ways that are currently unimaginable. Much of the change in how we get around can be attributed to peoples' behavioral evolution. Travelers no longer think of themselves as users of a transportation network. Instead, an app-oriented mindset has led to greater expectations of personalized services. People want to be able to know instantly, for example, how to get from Point A to Point B. The rapid change ahead will be highly impacted by technology, and the lessons of the past tell us that while we can anticipate and make predictions, the future is far from certain. We can guarantee, though, that we should all buckle up and hold on, because it will be an interesting ride. _Brooks Rainwater is the Director of the City Solutions and Applied Research Center at the National League of Cities._ NOW WATCH: This futuristic floating city will produce zero waste and house 7,000 residents
 |
| READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.businessinsider.com |