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Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Mario Draghi just dropped a big hint to let us know what would push the ECB to do more QE

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi spoke at the European Parliament on Wednesday, testifying to and taking questions from the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.  Since the Federal Reserve's decision not to hike interest rates in its September meeting, analysts have been wondering whether the ECB will be pushed to increase its quantitative easing programme. We got Draghi's opening testimony, and he also fielding questions from MPs.  * He talked about the "diverging paths" of monetary policy, saying that some countries were in much more advanced stages of their recovery than the eurozone. He also said the ECB was ready and willing to take further action, and that if volatility and uncertainty in markets become a source of financial tightening, they would act.  * The eurozone started doing QE in January, but with the slowdown in much of the world and the remaining weakness of the European economy, investors and analysts have been wondering whether the programme would be expanded. * Draghi's comment gives you a strong idea of what the ECB is looking at. Unlike in the US, where financial conditions have tightened considerably, in the eurozone they have still been loosening: * Draghi also just fielded a question about "People's QE," UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's plan to fund infrastructure investment with central bank purchases. He said "we'll certain consider these ideas," but added that "we should also not underestimate the legal issues." * David Coburn, a UKIP MEP, asked if an Irish MEP could ask a question about the ECB's treatment of the Irish government. He's breaking some sort of procedural rule, and the chair shot him down. * Taking questions from a Greek MEP, Draghi confirmed that the ECB will leave the Troika (the group that dispenses and organises bailout programmes to struggling governments), but said that it is "up to you" on the timing. Here are some of the highlights from his opening remarks: During the summer break, our Union faced exceptional challenges. First, there was the long and complicated discussion on the new adjustment programme for Greece. And now, in an area very much outside the ECB’s competence, there is the challenge of harbouring a large number of refugees that had to leave their homes behind. Both these events – although very different in nature – have shown again that Europe can only be strong if it acts in unity on the basis of solidarity and cooperation. This is a lesson we should draw also for the challenges to come... Slowing growth in emerging market economies, a stronger euro and the fall in oil prices and in commodity prices more generally are the main causes for these developments. As a result, renewed downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation have emerged. For many of these changes, it is too early to judge with sufficient confidence whether they will cause lasting slippage from the trajectory that we initially expected inflation to follow when we decided to expand our asset purchase programme in January... I would also like to say a few words about Greece. During the last hearing in June, I called for a comprehensive and fair agreement with Greece. In the following weeks, coming to such an agreement was very difficult and necessitated tremendous efforts from all those involved. But I am grateful that in the end, an agreement was reached. If it is completely implemented, the new programme will put Greece in a position to grow again and to reap the full benefits of participating in our common currency... The negotiations over the summer revealed again the fact that our institutional framework is still not commensurate with the requirements of sharing one currency. In the Five Presidents’ Report that we published shortly after the last hearing, the five authors shared one common conviction, namely that to make monetary union stable and prosperous, a more complete union is necessary. But we did not only outline this common conviction; we also presented a concrete roadmap showing how to attain this objective. This roadmap should now guide our discussions in the months to come. Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: The one thing you can add to coffee for even more energy in the morning


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